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  1. #29776
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Do you have to keep your hands over your eyes, do you just shut the lids, or do you have your head buried in the sand or somewhere else to miss things like, oh, the story currently being investigated about Trump weaponizing the Department of Justice to investigate his political opponents to the extent of seeking the communications of the teenage children of those members of Congress?

    If you don't identify that as fascism, or say, Lafayette Park being cleared for a photo op with a Bible, or any of the other signs, you might as well be goose-stepping yourself.

    Not that you have a pattern of also making excuses for outright white nationalists on this forum, as well. Can't tell if you're lying harder to the rest of us about what values you have, or just yourself at this point.
    The events of January 6 have demonstrated the dangers of heated rhetoric, and the necessity for immediately resolving any misunderstandings about political questions in public forums.

    Incidentally, the Inspector General's report released a few days ago did determine that police did not clear Lafayette Park for a photo-op.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ys/7622478002/

    https://doioig.opengov.ibmcloud.com/...tatement_0.pdf

    I've yet to see anyone else here sharing your opinion that the Trump administration's first-term was full blown facism, let alone that this is so obvious that anyone who doesn't see it the same way can be assumed to be a Nazi.

    If the United States had full-blown fascism during the Trump administration, people would be terrified to openly criticism Trump because of the penalties for doing so. Most of us have been quite comfortable mocking and criticizing Trump and others in his administration.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  2. #29777
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    Pretty much any time anyone mentions the pernicious impact of gerrymandering, Mets runs to 'geographic sorting' as his go-to excuse for why it's not a big deal.

    The party that wins the popular vote in a state *should* have a larger share of the House and Senate. That's how it's supposed to work. Weirdly, lines are drawn in a lot of states to make sure that doesn't happen, using excuses like 'geographic sorting' to help cover up the nakedly unrepresentative nature of the legislative bodies.
    I'll admit I've written about this before, but my point isn't to say it's not a big deal, but to note relevant facts when identifying the problem and the solution.

    https://community.cbr.com/showthread...er#post3720119

    There are several misunderstandings here.

    Geographic sorting is an explanation for why someone can win the popular vote and not win the majority of the legislature.

    I've used reliable sources to show how it works. When I argue that gerrymandering only gave Republicans a few net congressional seats, I back that up. A wrinkle is that Democrats also gerrymander, but for various reasons, they can't be as effective at it.

    Fivethirtyeight had a program demonstrating that there would be limited gains (2-4 congressional seats out of 435 total) for Democrats if districts had been made without regard for which political party benefits, to be compact (using an algorithm) or to be compact while following county borders.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tricting-maps/

    So this does mean that in order to have a system where the party that wins the popular vote has a larger share of the House and Senate, you have to specifically engineer that outcome. We should be open about that.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarman View Post
    How many of these districts reflect the county map to the best degree possible? Are they really compact? Is it really contiguous to form a district connected by a highway?

    In addition, Democrats aren’t the only ones who geographically sort. Republicans are usually stacked in rural areas and the suburban areas have become increasingly competitive during the Trump era. There really is no reason to expect Republicans to outpace their House margins with their share of seats nationwide by almost three percent.
    The increasing competitiveness of suburban areas would be something Republicans would have been unable to prepare for when redistricting after the 2010 census. That would help Democrats in legislative races in suburban districts.

    But the consensus among political scientists is that geographic sorting hurts Democrats disproportionately. Anything that isn't random is vulnerable to disparate impacts. African-American voters are more likely to support Democrats than white voters are to support Republicans. Democrats are sometimes going to move to liberal enclaves, like a college town within a conservative district. Anything nonrandom is likely to affect some groups more than others.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ity-districts/

    https://www.propublica.org/article/t...ocrats-bad-map

    It's perfectly fine that we need to argue that we change the status quo to reduce the efficiency gap. There are going to be some consequences if communities of interest are split to create more competitive districts.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChadH View Post
    Setting aside whether gerrymandering is actually effective, the fact that Republicans are willing to game the system and disenfranchise voters simply to gain an upper hand demonstrates their level of ethical decay.

    I'm deeply troubled by this double-play of gerrymandering and multi-state voter suppression and where it'll lead if unchecked.
    Democrats gerrymandered as well. They've admit it in court.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...umn/467349002/
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  3. #29778
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    There are no misunderstandings here. 'Geographic sorting' is a bad argument. It was bad when it was made by pundits in 2016 and its bad when its advanced here.

  4. #29779
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    There are no misunderstandings here. 'Geographic sorting' is a bad argument. It was bad when it was made by pundits in 2016 and its bad when its advanced here.
    What specifically is your argument?

    Do you think people mentioning geographic sorting are incorrect in their understanding of the facts? If so, what are your sources? Say what you will about my comments on geographic sorting, I do post sources.

    Do you think geographic sorting is irrelevant because an independent redistricting committee should focus on reducing the efficiency gap, so it doesn't matter if randomly designed compact borders favor Republicans as there should be different standards?

    Or do you have another view on the matter?
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  5. #29780
    Sans Pants ChadH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    I'll admit I've written about this before, but my point isn't to say it's not a big deal, but to note relevant facts when identifying the problem and the solution.

    https://community.cbr.com/showthread...er#post3720119

    There are several misunderstandings here.

    Geographic sorting is an explanation for why someone can win the popular vote and not win the majority of the legislature.

    I've used reliable sources to show how it works. When I argue that gerrymandering only gave Republicans a few net congressional seats, I back that up. A wrinkle is that Democrats also gerrymander, but for various reasons, they can't be as effective at it.

    Fivethirtyeight had a program demonstrating that there would be limited gains (2-4 congressional seats out of 435 total) for Democrats if districts had been made without regard for which political party benefits, to be compact (using an algorithm) or to be compact while following county borders.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tricting-maps/

    So this does mean that in order to have a system where the party that wins the popular vote has a larger share of the House and Senate, you have to specifically engineer that outcome. We should be open about that.

    The increasing competitiveness of suburban areas would be something Republicans would have been unable to prepare for when redistricting after the 2010 census. That would help Democrats in legislative races in suburban districts.

    But the consensus among political scientists is that geographic sorting hurts Democrats disproportionately. Anything that isn't random is vulnerable to disparate impacts. African-American voters are more likely to support Democrats than white voters are to support Republicans. Democrats are sometimes going to move to liberal enclaves, like a college town within a conservative district. Anything nonrandom is likely to affect some groups more than others.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ity-districts/

    https://www.propublica.org/article/t...ocrats-bad-map

    It's perfectly fine that we need to argue that we change the status quo to reduce the efficiency gap. There are going to be some consequences if communities of interest are split to create more competitive districts.



    Democrats gerrymandered as well. They've admit it in court.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...umn/467349002/
    Unless you can somehow prove Democrats did it first and do it more often, we can chalk it up to self defense.
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  6. #29781
    Invincible Member numberthirty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChadH View Post
    Unless you can somehow prove Democrats did it first and do it more often, we can chalk it up to self defense.
    That's a pretty solid plan for making sure this nonsense never ends.

    If that's the road you intend to stay on?

    It's probably time to quit talking about how damaging it is.

  7. #29782
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by numberthirty View Post
    That's a pretty solid plan for making sure this nonsense never ends.

    If that's the road you intend to stay on?

    It's probably time to quit talking about how damaging it is.
    Most of the states with independent redistricting commissions are reliably blue states (see California and Colorado). The For the People Act, exclusively supported by Democrats, makes independent redistricting commissions necessary for every state.

    This is asymmetric warfare. And this is where idealism meets pragmatism. If Democrats are going to cede all the control they have over redistricting to balanced commissions while Republicans create districts like Dan Crenshaw’s in Texas, they have effectively legislated themselves completely out of the House forever and always and will be fundamentally unable to actually ensure gerrymandering is ended.

    It sucks, but you take the world as it is, not how you wish it could be.
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  8. #29783
    My Face Is Up Here Powerboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    The events of January 6 have demonstrated the dangers of heated rhetoric, and the necessity for immediately resolving any misunderstandings about political questions in public forums.

    Incidentally, the Inspector General's report released a few days ago did determine that police did not clear Lafayette Park for a photo-op.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ys/7622478002/

    https://doioig.opengov.ibmcloud.com/...tatement_0.pdf

    I've yet to see anyone else here sharing your opinion that the Trump administration's first-term was full blown facism, let alone that this is so obvious that anyone who doesn't see it the same way can be assumed to be a Nazi.

    If the United States had full-blown fascism during the Trump administration, people would be terrified to openly criticism Trump because of the penalties for doing so. Most of us have been quite comfortable mocking and criticizing Trump and others in his administration.
    I don't think it is so much that the Trump presidency literally was a full-blown Fascist regime as that Trump treated it as if it was and wanted it to be.

    As the saying goes: Trump scares me but it is his followers that really scare me.

    It is now established that a president can fabricate a complete lie, minus any evidence and mountains of evidence to the contrary, and be believed by about half of the Republican party even when the claim is demonstrably false. He can now instigate a riot to overthrow the results of a lawful election and get away with it. Worse, the party at the highest levels has lost any spine they ever had once they realized having a spine would lose them votes while a bunch of whack job mental cases are now the practical party leadership playing to the morons who will vote for them while the Old school Republicans who at least had some semblance of integrity are now being called Republicans In Name Only by people who would once have been in straightjackets they are so off the deep end.

    And that is Trump's legacy. Whether the system allowed him to be a true Fascist, it was not because he did not try his best.

    My real concern is: What is really driving these Trump supporters that they will believe complete fabrications in the face of all evidence? Granted, that has always been a common Conservative quality.
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  9. #29784
    Extraordinary Member Malvolio's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarman View Post
    Most of the states with independent redistricting commissions are reliably blue states (see California and Colorado). The For the People Act, exclusively supported by Democrats, makes independent redistricting commissions necessary for every state.

    This is asymmetric warfare. And this is where idealism meets pragmatism. If Democrats are going to cede all the control they have over redistricting to balanced commissions while Republicans create districts like Dan Crenshaw’s in Texas, they have effectively legislated themselves completely out of the House forever and always and will be fundamentally unable to actually ensure gerrymandering is ended.

    It sucks, but you take the world as it is, not how you wish it could be.
    That's the problem, all right. Democrats play by the rules that they wish the Republicans would play by as well, but that only results in losing the game.
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  10. #29785
    Invincible Member numberthirty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarman View Post
    Most of the states with independent redistricting commissions are reliably blue states (see California and Colorado). The For the People Act, exclusively supported by Democrats, makes independent redistricting commissions necessary for every state.

    This is asymmetric warfare. And this is where idealism meets pragmatism. If Democrats are going to cede all the control they have over redistricting to balanced commissions while Republicans create districts like Dan Crenshaw’s in Texas, they have effectively legislated themselves completely out of the House forever and always and will be fundamentally unable to actually ensure gerrymandering is ended.

    It sucks, but you take the world as it is, not how you wish it could be.
    Which you wouldn't need if Pritzker had come through on a campaign promise.

    That the entire thing should be independent?

    Whole other kettle of fish.

    Also does not change that you kick the legs out from under the whole "Should Be Independent..." argument every time you pull a move like Pritzker just did.

    What argument do you really have that the other side should not be doing it if you will not do away with it yourself?

  11. #29786
    Invincible Member numberthirty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malvolio View Post
    That's the problem, all right. Democrats play by the rules that they wish the Republicans would play by as well, but that only results in losing the game.
    Pritzker literally just made sure gerrymandering stayed in place.

    Not really "Playing By The Rules..."

    Also undercuts any attempt at serious criticism of Republicans doing it.

  12. #29787

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    Incidentally, the Inspector General's report released a few days ago did determine that police did not clear Lafayette Park for a photo-op.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ys/7622478002/
    Ah yes, the TRUMP-APPOINTED Inspector General's report, that everyone with a lick of sense realized was an outright lie.

    Again, you're gaslighting/goose-stepping right along with them. No matter how blatant it is.
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  13. #29788
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Ah yes, the TRUMP-APPOINTED Inspector General's report, that everyone with a lick of sense realized was an outright lie.

    Again, you're gaslighting/goose-stepping right along with them. No matter how blatant it is.
    Yes. The photo op is just an amazing coincidence. Please.

  14. #29789
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by numberthirty View Post
    Which you wouldn't need if Pritzker had come through on a campaign promise.

    That the entire thing should be independent?

    Whole other kettle of fish.
    It really isn’t though. The idea that you fall on the sword of idealism and are able to cry, “We practiced what we preached” is gonna be a cold comfort to women who are punished for having abortions federally once the Supreme Court strikes down constitutionality and for people who are disenfranchised from being able to vote.

    It’s so maddening to insist that we maintain moral superiority and consistency when that will literally cause us to lose and thus be no help to anyone, anywhere.

    Also does not change that you kick the legs out from under the whole "Should Be Independent..." argument every time you pull a move like Pritzker just did.

    What argument do you really have that the other side should not be doing it if you will not do away with it yourself?
    Again, moral consistency is great and all. But that is of cold comfort to your voters who vote for you every time, but still end up not seeing actual results because they have been so remarkably disenfranchised by the opposite party while we continued to hide behind, “Well, be the change you want to see!” so that we could lose “righteously”.

    It literally accomplishes nothing to lose. As of right now, we fight on the battlefield as it is. We put more initiatives in places like Texas and Florida to establish independent commissions. Then, we can start to move the rules.
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  15. #29790

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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Ah yes, the TRUMP-APPOINTED Inspector General's report, that everyone with a lick of sense realized was an outright lie.

    Again, you're gaslighting/goose-stepping right along with them. No matter how blatant it is.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    Yes. The photo op is just an amazing coincidence. Please.
    Oh, and the not-at-all fascists behind this? Let us not forget that said current TRUMP APPOINTED Dept. of Interious Inspector General is in place because the not-at-all-fascist Trump administration fired the previous I.G. in 2018 because he was actually doing his f***ing job and reporting them for being the corrupt fascists that they were/are.

    For those of us not being gaslit and paying attention, this is what you would call reality. Please and thank you.
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