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  1. #13906
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    Honestly, given the sheer insanity of Florida i won’t be surprised if Trump wins that state.

    That being said, Biden does NOT need Florida to win. If Biden flips Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump’s road to re-election becomes very narrow.

    All this being said, we can’t discount a Trump victory. The surge in early voters is across both parties and could actually help Trump in the battleground states.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

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  2. #13907

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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Honestly, given the sheer insanity of Florida i won’t be surprised if Trump wins that state.

    That being said, Biden does NOT need Florida to win. If Biden flips Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump’s road to re-election becomes very narrow.

    All this being said, we can’t discount a Trump victory. The surge in early voters is across both parties and could actually help Trump in the battleground states.
    Exactly. It isn't that Trump needs to snag a huge comeback win where he hasn't polled in the lead in A state...

    It's like he needs a comeback win in 8 or 9 separate states that's greater than the margin of error.

    At this point, the only, "I won because..." you'll hear from Trump on Nov. 4th is if he pulls down 25 or more states and tries claiming that's an electoral college win (it isn't), and he might not even get that.
    Last edited by worstblogever; 10-25-2020 at 12:30 AM.
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  3. #13908
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Not so cut and dry in Texas
    Texas Produced More Energy from Renewable Sources Than Coal Last Year

    Like everything else, Trump lives in the 50s
    Yes but the money didn't go to Trump's friends.
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  4. #13909
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastieRunner View Post
    It appears 4 Pence staffers have tested positive for COVID.
    It's 5 now, and counting.
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  5. #13910
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  6. #13911
    Old school comic book fan WestPhillyPunisher's Avatar
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    Vice President’s Chief Of Staff Is Second Top Aide To Test Positive For COVID-19

    Pence aide Marty Obst reportedly tested positive earlier this week. And yet, Red Grant plans to continue campaigning. By the way....

    **********

    Joe Biden Trolls Donald Trump With Spoof COVID-19 Plan Website

    The Democratic nominee slammed the president’s coronavirus failings with TrumpCovidPlan.com. Sick. Burn.

    **********

    The White Supremacist And Extremist Donors To Trump’s 2020 Campaign

    His reelection campaign has not rejected or returned campaign contributions from multiple well-known far-right bigots, FEC records show. Big surprise, right? If Osama bin Laden were still alive and sent Trump a contribution, he'd take it.

    **********

    Biden Says He’ll Be A President For All, Including Pro-Trump ‘Chumps’ At Rally

    Biden pledged that he will avoid the partisan blaming of Donald Trump, even as Trump supporters heckled him at an event in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

    **********

    Thousands Of Early Voters Waited For Hours In Snaking Lines On Saturday To Cast Their Ballots

    New York voters waited in long lines on the first day of early voting in their state. Voters also flooded polling sites in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Alabama and elsewhere.

    **********

    Lincoln Project Attorney Scorches Lawsuit Threat Over Ivanka, Jared Billboards

    “Peddle your scare tactics elsewhere. The Lincoln Project will not be intimidated by such empty bluster,” attorney Matthew Sanderson blasts in letter.

    Last edited by WestPhillyPunisher; 10-25-2020 at 02:40 AM.
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  7. #13912

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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    Interview is by Krystal Ball, who has had some particularly paranoid takes on politics over the past few months. Just for example, she started a conspiracy theory that Democrats were sabotaging the Sanders and Warren campaigns by trying to get them to come of the campaign trail and back to DC... TO VOTE IN THE SENATE.

    She's not over Bernie, and trying to make this more of a thing than it is. At a truly f***ed up time to ratf***.
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  8. #13913

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    On this date in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, as well as 2019, “Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day posted profiles of Lawrence Lockman, a member of the Maine House of Representatives since 2013, who spent most of the 1980s forming an anti-government militia group that called for the dissolution of the IRS, even once dressing up as Dracula outside of a local IRS office to protest their presence, eventually instead focusing his attentions to spreading misinformation about the AIDS virus publicly (he liked to warn people you could catch it from toilet seats), and using it as a part of the public consciousness to demonize the gay community whenever possible,. In the 1990s, Lockman was claiming that tolerance of gays was leading to a point where children would be “indoctrinated” as homosexuals in schools. The disgusting opinions Lockman holds know no bounds, and he freely provided them in opinion editorials in Maine newspapers, including one where he expressed his humble opinion that “If a woman has (the right to abortion), why shouldn’t a man be free to use his superior strength to force himself on a woman? At least the rapist’s pursuit of sexual freedom doesn’t (in most cases) result in anyone’s death.” Yes, he’s that terrible, and after laying low from 2000-2012, he reappeared to run for the Maine House of Representatives, winning office for the first time in 2012, before anyone really did much digging into his past to learn how extreme he truly is. Lockman’s name turns up every now and then in the local Maine papers, as one of the few people who tries to spin the ramblings of insane Governor Paul LePage and argue as to why LePage shouldn’t be impeached.

    Lockman was, regrettably, re-elected in 2016 to a third term in office, with a personal best 61% of the vote which is higher than you would want to see a rape advocate and HIV Truther get after he only snuck into office by less than a hundred votes only four years earlier. And by no means has Lockman ever apologized for his previous controversies, or learned his lesson. He’s become fervently anti-immigrant of late, echoing Donald Trump, and when he got a speaking engagement at Portland State University in February of 2017, he got hundreds of protesters to show up and cuss him out. Hell, it was only a few months ago back in March of 2017 that he wrote yet another opinion editorial in the Bangor Daily News where he raged against illegal immigrants in Maine, inflating the statistical number of illegal immigrants in their state from the actual less than 1,000 there to “over 5,000” and falsely claiming that they receive welfare benefits and whining about how that money (that isn’t being given to them) would be better given to our veterans while blaming “liberals” for it.

    How much of a s*** is Lawrence Lockman? Well, he doesn’t believe in legal protections for women, or minorities LGBTQ citizens, but yet, he drafted legislation that would shield politicians from being investigated or prosecuted for their political views, including (but not limited to) climate change denialism… because THAT totally is a form of bigotry in this country.

    But if there were any doubt of whether or not Lockman is racist, look no further than a mass e-mail he sent out in January of 2018 where he claimed that immigrant welcome centers are a part of “the Left’s War on Whites. Fit this man for a robe and pointy hat, ladies and gentlemen.

    We have some great news, though. Lawrence Lockman attempted to move into the Maine State Senate this fall in District 8 of that body… and he was defeated in the Republican Primary by 52 votes. That’s right, after 8 years of polluting the state legislature… Lawrence Lockman will be out of office as of Dec. 2nd, 2020. We hope that he chooses to stay out of office permanently, and seeks professional help.
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  9. #13914
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    Interview is by Krystal Ball, who has had some particularly paranoid takes on politics over the past few months. Just for example, she started a conspiracy theory that Democrats were sabotaging the Sanders and Warren campaigns by trying to get them to come of the campaign trail and back to DC... TO VOTE IN THE SENATE.
    She used to be good on MSNBC years ago, solidly liberal. That's why I question her real motives at The Hill, ever since she's been there it's like she's been possessed by the Young Turks.

    It might just be noises to satisfy his followers, who are moving on - he's done this before with Obama but didn't do it. Maybe he'll chicken out at the last minute like last time. *crosses fingers*

    She's not over Bernie, and trying to make this more of a thing than it is. At a truly f***ed up time to ratf***.
    With her new niche on The Hill she never will because that's what her new audience likes. What's that quote about people not changing minds because their money relies on it?

  10. #13915
    The Undead One The Chou Lives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post

    On this date in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, as well as 2019, “Crazy/Stupid Republican of the Day posted profiles of Lawrence Lockman, a member of the Maine House of Representatives since 2013, who spent most of the 1980s forming an anti-government militia group that called for the dissolution of the IRS, even once dressing up as Dracula outside of a local IRS office to protest their presence, eventually instead focusing his attentions to spreading misinformation about the AIDS virus publicly (he liked to warn people you could catch it from toilet seats), and using it as a part of the public consciousness to demonize the gay community whenever possible,. In the 1990s, Lockman was claiming that tolerance of gays was leading to a point where children would be “indoctrinated” as homosexuals in schools. The disgusting opinions Lockman holds know no bounds, and he freely provided them in opinion editorials in Maine newspapers, including one where he expressed his humble opinion that “If a woman has (the right to abortion), why shouldn’t a man be free to use his superior strength to force himself on a woman? At least the rapist’s pursuit of sexual freedom doesn’t (in most cases) result in anyone’s death.” Yes, he’s that terrible, and after laying low from 2000-2012, he reappeared to run for the Maine House of Representatives, winning office for the first time in 2012, before anyone really did much digging into his past to learn how extreme he truly is. Lockman’s name turns up every now and then in the local Maine papers, as one of the few people who tries to spin the ramblings of insane Governor Paul LePage and argue as to why LePage shouldn’t be impeached.

    Lockman was, regrettably, re-elected in 2016 to a third term in office, with a personal best 61% of the vote which is higher than you would want to see a rape advocate and HIV Truther get after he only snuck into office by less than a hundred votes only four years earlier. And by no means has Lockman ever apologized for his previous controversies, or learned his lesson. He’s become fervently anti-immigrant of late, echoing Donald Trump, and when he got a speaking engagement at Portland State University in February of 2017, he got hundreds of protesters to show up and cuss him out. Hell, it was only a few months ago back in March of 2017 that he wrote yet another opinion editorial in the Bangor Daily News where he raged against illegal immigrants in Maine, inflating the statistical number of illegal immigrants in their state from the actual less than 1,000 there to “over 5,000” and falsely claiming that they receive welfare benefits and whining about how that money (that isn’t being given to them) would be better given to our veterans while blaming “liberals” for it.

    How much of a s*** is Lawrence Lockman? Well, he doesn’t believe in legal protections for women, or minorities LGBTQ citizens, but yet, he drafted legislation that would shield politicians from being investigated or prosecuted for their political views, including (but not limited to) climate change denialism… because THAT totally is a form of bigotry in this country.

    But if there were any doubt of whether or not Lockman is racist, look no further than a mass e-mail he sent out in January of 2018 where he claimed that immigrant welcome centers are a part of “the Left’s War on Whites. Fit this man for a robe and pointy hat, ladies and gentlemen.

    We have some great news, though. Lawrence Lockman attempted to move into the Maine State Senate this fall in District 8 of that body… and he was defeated in the Republican Primary by 52 votes. That’s right, after 8 years of polluting the state legislature… Lawrence Lockman will be out of office as of Dec. 2nd, 2020. We hope that he chooses to stay out of office permanently, and seeks professional help.
    That quote shows he is a rapist.


    Also


    https://youtu.be/Qq6JvzKXyzQ

    Yeah a Trump has rallies. But shot is not free. And it’s not helping anyone who he goes to.

    Money or health wise.

    Tuesday going to do an actual analysis of how this vote can turn out. No bull shit, just observing.

  11. #13916
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastieRunner View Post
    For 45 to win, he would have to to follow a path very similar to his win in 2016. If the same states start falling in the same place and roughly the same time ... He will pull off another EC Hail Mary.

    If even one previous state flips, his path will close.
    The bad news is that Trump could lose more than one state, and win the electoral college. If he loses Michigan, Wisconsin and Maine's second congressional district, he still has 279 electoral votes.

    If he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maine's second congressional district, it's the ultimate 2020 ending of House delegations picking the electoral college winner.

    The good news is that polls show him down in enough swing states that he's a heavy underdog in a combination of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota (a state he was hoping to add to his column) and Wisconsin, as well a slight underdog in Florida and North Carolina.

    However, there is the possibility that pollsters are making similar errors in an unusual time. Perhaps the shy Trump voter effect is real. Maybe pollsters are underestimating turnout among white voters without college degrees. Or they might fail to account for the effects of new policies.

    With people using completely new procedures, we don't fully know how well polls are going to match interest in voting. Maybe Democrats will vote in landslide numbers with mail-in voting being less time-consuming than traditional methods. Maybe they'll vote in smaller numbers because it's a new process, and some of the people who said they'll vote aren't going to take the time to learn what they're supposed to do.

    Another potential problem is voter error. With in-person voting, if someone makes mistakes, they'll often be informed about it and given the opportunity to fix it. This gets tougher with mail-in ballots. In addition, there are various regulations about which ballots should be accepted. And polls could be off if a high percentage of Democrats vote with mail-in ballots where they're more likely to make errors, and where a high percentage of Republicans vote in-person. With Democrats more likely to be first-time voters and more likely to be voting in a way, the odds of some error are increased.

    We'll know soon enough what the story is with the polls.

    Quote Originally Posted by numberthirty View Post
    For what it's worth, none of the speculation about Biden's age seemed to be anything like a concern in his appearance on Saturday afternoon.

    A lot of that stuff seems to be largely in the eye of the beholder anyway, but it's worth the mention.
    Tim Alberta had a decent article about why Biden was underestimated, and notes that the major factor is that he has run a very disciplined campaign.

    The Democratic nominee was at it again Thursday night, plodding along at a comfortable pace, reciting methodically rehearsed responses, never losing his composure or abandoning his message. It was telling that the lone error Biden supposedly committed—pledging to transition the country away from reliance on oil—is something he has discussed regularly over the past 18 months. Could he have polished his point a bit more? Sure. But there was no controversy. There was no campaign-imploding misstep. This was not Hillary Clinton promising to put coal miners out of work or Mitt Romney calling 47 percent of the country indolent. The former vice president’s loyalists who have spent two years holding their breath, certain that he could say something disqualifying at any moment, are exhaling today with equal parts relief and amazement. The truth is, for all Biden’s history of veering outside the lines and putting his foot in his mouth, he has navigated the most hyperexposed and instantly scrutinized political climate in history without ever putting himself in real jeopardy.

    Some of this, of course, owes to a sheltering strategy that has kept the Democratic nominee out of sight for long stretches of the race. The basement that Trump mocked on Thursday night actually has been a protective lair from which Biden has run a textbook referendum campaign, keeping the focus on the incumbent, not on himself.

    But much of Biden’s success owes to his opponent’s willingness to embrace that referendum. The president is a man who cannot bear to cede the spotlight, whose penchant for chaos unwittingly shields his political adversaries from sustained examination. Trump has also created an atmosphere that is badly imbalanced, one in which the extremism that once composed society’s outer rings now features at its nucleus. Biden has a stated goal of restoring the soul of America. That’s an inflated campaign promise if ever there was one. What he might be able to do—what many voters are praying he can do—is restore some balance to American politics. No more reality show at the White House. No more living on a knife’s edge with every presidential tweet. No more conspiracy theories from the commander in chief.

    In one sense, Biden isn’t a natural fit for these times. He’s always been edgy and provocative in his own right, an old school scrapper who kept a quip in his pocket and a chip on his shoulder. Sometimes it went too far—even at points in this 2020 campaign. When he challenged a mouthy Iowan to a push-up contest or went nose-to-nose with a Michigan autoworker, or questioned the Blackness of any African American who wouldn’t vote for him, Biden showed flashes of his primal self. He stirred echoes of the very president he was vowing to defeat.

    And yet, that’s all it amounted to—flashes and echoes. Over the past two years, Biden has executed a campaign that is all the more brilliant because it suppresses his own core instincts. The wise guy who loved to instigate is now the wise man who wants to mediate.

    It was on display Thursday night as Biden repeatedly and rightly accused Trump of governing only for his base and promised to be a president for red states and blue states alike. It was on display throughout his primary campaign, when he refused to be swept away by the whims of the left and consolidated a majority of Democrats around a theory of defeating Trump with a fire extinguisher instead of a flame thrower. It was on display two years ago, on that chilly night in Michigan, when he told yarns of a conciliatory yesteryear and wondered aloud what it might take to get back to that place again.

    I remember thinking back then that Biden was little more than a glorified grandfather, tucking Americans in with a pacifying bedtime story. He was a glass of warm milk to put us to sleep. As it turns out, that’s exactly what he is—and after four years of being overcaffeinated, it’s exactly what a majority of America wants.
    On the Slate political gabfest, John Dickerson pointed out that this shows that Biden is able to adapt, which is very rare for older politicians who tend to be set in their ways.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  12. #13917
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChadH View Post
    The first is an article describing the bipartisan proposal and the second describes how the Trump administration killed it before it could even be fully explained.
    Yes, in an effort to be all-encompassing it had to do with dreamers as well as new immigrants.

    You argue in bad faith Mets. I don't care for it.
    You're going after me personally, and you're wrong on the facts.

    In an argument about one aspect of immigration policy (how should the United States handle migrant families due to the combination of an increase in family arrivals, higher workload for immigration judges, and the Flores settlement that limits the amount of time children should be detained), whether there have been clearly articulated alternatives, and whether that matters, you suggested that I've failed to take into account the evidence you presented. This seems to be a reference to the post in which you said "An alternative bipartisan plan was submitted to Trump back in 2016. He rejected it in favor of this ongoing national disgrace we've had for the last four years."

    https://community.cbr.com/showthread...=1#post5201264

    I asked about the bipartisan immigration plan. You posted two links, although these are to the same exact article posted in the Washington Post and Chicago Tribune, written by David Nakamura and Mike DeBonis.

    https://community.cbr.com/showthread...62#post5202662

    The proposed bill, as described, doesn't address the question of what to do with family arrivals in the future. I'm not acting in bad faith to point that out.

    It doesn't address my question about clearly articulated alternatives.

    The questions are high-stakes, dealing with sensitive issues and the possibility that the United States is harming thousands of children, and some complicating factors (Have parents made decisions that make it harder for the US government to get in touch with them?) And there may be differences in frames of reference, where one unstated argument seems to be that the situation is so terrible that anything is better, and where I'm concerned (and I've said this part many times) that a well-meaning solution can cause greater harm by incentivizing putting children at risk.

    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    Well you figure that if a totalitarian hellhole like China can be so successful bringing people out of poverty, that any developing country that really bought into those American ideals of free speech, property rights, and rule of law could do far better right? But since the end of WW2, the list of nations that has successfully managed to join the first world club by embracing Western values and market economics consists of, who exactly? South Korea, Singapore, maybe Taiwan? Meanwhile, all of the American-backed puppet regimes, failed states, and right wing dictatorships that exist primarily to enable American companies to strip mine their countries for resources and exploit their people as dirt cheap sweatshop labor is almost too long to fathom. And can you imagine how sorry the state of affairs would be if there weren't rival superpowers like the USSR and China that these countries can play off against the US to at least be able to recapture some leverage?

    It's really not that complicated to understand how American foreign policy works if you just draw parallels between how we deal with poor nations and how we treat minorities at home. Oh sure, we'll make a big hoot about all the initiatives and programs we've started to empower this that or whomever, and generously pat ourselves on the back for whatever incremental progress is made, but at the end of the day anyone with actual power or influence understands that,whether at home or abroad, people from marginalized communities are never truly meant to succeed. After all, it's bad enough having to deal with China, can you imagine how troublesome it would be if countries in Africa, Latin America, or the Middle East developed to the point where they actually became military, technological, and cultural rivals to the US? Or if, God forbid, they tried to leverage their newfound geopolitical clout to advocate for the interests of their oppressed brethren living in the West? Black Lives Matter is already seen as enough of a threat to the fabric of American society as it is, can you imagine what it would be like if there were actually a league of wealthy, advanced, and powerful African nations willing to throw the full weight of their economic and diplomatic power behind it?
    There's a category difference between a country reducing extreme poverty and joining the first world club.

    I said that there has been a major reduction in extreme poverty, and that is the goalpost. Even outside of China, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty has been reduced by nearly 60 percent.

    Of course, it could be better, but it represents a major accomplishment.

    I'm curious what you think the policies are holding back countries in Africa, Latin American and the Middle East to developing to the point where they can be military, technological and cultural rivals to the US?
    Last edited by Mister Mets; 10-25-2020 at 06:06 AM.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  13. #13918
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    I don't see this idea of the "shy Trump voter" being a thing. There are far less undecideds and third Party voters than last time. And even if some of them are these so-called shy voters, I don't see enough of them to make a difference, And I can't see shy Trump voters telling a pollster they are voting for Biden.
    I think we can look at the polls with the usual margin of error. They are close in the swing States but favor Biden right now.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  14. #13919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    I don't see this idea of the "shy Trump voter" being a thing. There are far less undecideds and third Party voters than last time. And even if some of them are these so-called shy voters, I don't see enough of them to make a difference, And I can't see shy Trump voters telling a pollster they are voting for Biden.
    I think we can look at the polls with the usual margin of error. They are close in the swing States but favor Biden right now.
    I find trolls more likely than Shy Voters. And even then, well, I somehow doubt it's big enough.
    Last edited by ChangingStation; 10-25-2020 at 07:07 AM.

  15. #13920
    Astonishing Member PwrdOn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    There's a category difference between a country reducing extreme poverty and joining the first world club.

    I said that there has been a major reduction in extreme poverty, and that is the goalpost. Even outside of China, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty has been reduced by nearly 60 percent.

    Of course, it could be better, but it represents a major accomplishment.

    I'm curious what you think the policies are holding back countries in Africa, Latin American and the Middle East to developing to the point where they can be military, technological and cultural rivals to the US?
    A major accomplishment by people living in poor countries against the wishes of the United States. And it's pretty clear what is holding these countries back, every time any one of them starts to have a little bit of success, they always seem to suffer a coup or a civil war soon after, and the new government that emerges is hellbent on reversing all of the progress that they've made. I guess it will probably remain a mystery forever who is behind all of that...

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