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  1. #13921
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    I don't see this idea of the "shy Trump voter" being a thing. There are far less undecideds and third Party voters than last time. And even if some of them are these so-called shy voters, I don't see enough of them to make a difference, And I can't see shy Trump voters telling a pollster they are voting for Biden.
    I think we can look at the polls with the usual margin of error. They are close in the swing States but favor Biden right now.
    We'll find out soon enough about how accurate the polls are. It is worth noting that for Trump to win the polls don't just have to be wrong in Biden's direction, they've got to be slanted by a lot.

    If polls are off by four points, Biden would still win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    Polls could also be off in the other direction. There is the possibility of record turnout, which makes adjusting for likely voters difficult.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-voter-turnout

    We might be looking at an election map where Biden wins Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio, with South Carolina, Alaska and Montana too close to call.
    Last edited by Mister Mets; 10-25-2020 at 07:38 AM.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  2. #13922
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    We also have to see how many people the GOP stops from voting or how many votes they get thrown out.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  3. #13923
    Ultimate Member Tendrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    We'll find out soon enough about how accurate the polls are. It is worth noting that for Trump to win the polls don't just have to be wrong in Biden's direction, they've got to be slanted by a lot.

    If polls are off by four points, Biden would still win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    Polls could also be off in the other direction. There is the possibility of record turnout, which makes adjusting for likely voters difficult.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-voter-turnout

    We might be looking at an election map where Biden wins Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio, with South Carolina, Alaska and Montana too close to call.
    This, of course, discounts the influence of our deliberately degraded election inftrastructure, voter suppression, tally-changing, hacking, and more.

    It's going to be a cluster.

  4. #13924
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tendrin View Post
    This, of course, discounts the influence of our deliberately degraded election inftrastructure, voter suppression, tally-changing, hacking, and more.

    It's going to be a cluster.
    Here, there's a lot we don't know about.

    New York City is having all sorts of problems in early voting, and that's not due to Republican interference.

    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loca...-york/2684577/

    The new alternatives to voting in a polling place on Election Day could affect voter habits, but we don't know how. Some of the people who said they'll vote aren't going to take the time to learn what they're supposed to do, but we might also have more people voting.

    An underappreciated potential problem is voter error. With in-person voting, if someone makes mistakes, they'll often be informed about it and given the opportunity to fix it. This gets more complicated with mail-in ballots (some states offer do-overs, but that requires someone checking their mail and responding in time.) Polls could be off if a high percentage of Democrats vote with mail-in ballots where they're more likely to make errors, and where a high percentage of Republicans vote in-person. With Democrats more likely to be first-time voters and more likely to be voting in a way, the odds of some error are increased. Democrats may call insisting on adherence to clear standard as tantamount to voter suppression, while Republicans will point to laws like Pennsylvania's restriction on 'naked ballots.'

    https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91836...tting-rejected

    Although as we talk more about how ballots can be rejected, it increases voter awareness about proper procedures.

    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    A major accomplishment by people living in poor countries against the wishes of the United States. And it's pretty clear what is holding these countries back, every time any one of them starts to have a little bit of success, they always seem to suffer a coup or a civil war soon after, and the new government that emerges is hellbent on reversing all of the progress that they've made. I guess it will probably remain a mystery forever who is behind all of that...
    There's no indication that the US didn't want the reduction in extreme poverty. It's happening with trade and rule of law.

    But it's also not clear that if not for US interference, some of those countries would be on the level of Finland, Germany or South Korea. Bolivia is not Wakanda.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  5. #13925
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    I don't see this idea of the "shy Trump voter" being a thing. There are far less undecideds and third Party voters than last time. And even if some of them are these so-called shy voters, I don't see enough of them to make a difference, And I can't see shy Trump voters telling a pollster they are voting for Biden.
    I think we can look at the polls with the usual margin of error. They are close in the swing States but favor Biden right now.
    It's a completely illogical idea that, under an increasingly fascist regime, it's the fascism-sympathizers who are shy about voicing their opinions.
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  6. #13926
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    Here, there's a lot we don't know about.

    New York City is having all sorts of problems in early voting, and that's not due to Republican interference.

    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loca...-york/2684577/

    The new alternatives to voting in a polling place on Election Day could affect voter habits, but we don't know how. Some of the people who said they'll vote aren't going to take the time to learn what they're supposed to do, but we might also have more people voting.

    An underappreciated potential problem is voter error. With in-person voting, if someone makes mistakes, they'll often be informed about it and given the opportunity to fix it. This gets more complicated with mail-in ballots (some states offer do-overs, but that requires someone checking their mail and responding in time.) Polls could be off if a high percentage of Democrats vote with mail-in ballots where they're more likely to make errors, and where a high percentage of Republicans vote in-person. With Democrats more likely to be first-time voters and more likely to be voting in a way, the odds of some error are increased. Democrats may call insisting on adherence to clear standard as tantamount to voter suppression, while Republicans will point to laws like Pennsylvania's restriction on 'naked ballots.'

    https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/91836...tting-rejected

    Although as we talk more about how ballots can be rejected, it increases voter awareness about proper procedures.
    And even that is being addressed individually, since some people are not only delivering their letters to the stations directly, but are travelling for miles to do so. I guess Trump's attempts to make people suspect corruption and election interference have backfired as they are just making people research how to vote properly and take all the steps they can to minimize rejections.

    Every word a president says carries weight even to those who have him.

  7. #13927
    Astonishing Member PwrdOn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    There's no indication that the US didn't want the reduction in extreme poverty. It's happening with trade and rule of law.

    But it's also not clear that if not for US interference, some of those countries would be on the level of Finland, Germany or South Korea. Bolivia is not Wakanda.
    The funny thing about poverty reduction is, it puts all kinds of crazy ideas in people's heads, that maybe they have better things to do than slave away in a dingy factory for 50 cents an hour, or that maybe preserving the environment is more important than letting foreign companies tear up their ground for oil and minerals, or that just maybe the people who are always coming in and saying that they're here to help you aren't actually there to help you. And no, Bolivia is not Wakanda, but unlike the three countries that you brought up, they aren't saddled with limited resources, a terminally aging population, or a pathological superiority complex that makes them inflexible and unable to adapt to a changing world, and now that the socialists are back in power after the illegitimate US-backed coup fell completely apart, they should be back on the right track again, barring another coup of course.

  8. #13928
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Remember Caputo, one of Trump's "best people" who ended up having a major nervous breakdown a few weeks ago?

    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  9. #13929
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    From the Dallas Morning News:

    Biden rebounds to edge over Trump in Texas, as Hegar slightly narrows Cornyn’s lead in Senate race

    Biden’s lead among likely voters is 48%-45%, within the poll’s margin of error.


    Biden, who was 2 points behind Trump among likely voters in The News and UT-Tyler’s September survey, edged slightly ahead of the president this month by expanding his support among independents and grabbing a better than 3-to-1 advantage among Hispanics.

    The former vice president’s rebound from last month, when Trump led among likely Texas voters, 48-46, is sure to boost the already high spirits of state Democrats.
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  10. #13930
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    But muh Fiddy Cents!
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  11. #13931
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    Sure, but that was before the last debate.

  12. #13932
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChangingStation View Post
    Sure, but that was before the last debate.
    Texas leads the country in renewable energy. I doubt this false oil BS by Trump will have any traction.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  13. #13933
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    I can't see Biden winning Texas.

    It's going to take a seismic political shift for that to happen.

    Granted it's already started but i don't think we're there yet.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

    "BE WOKE, VOTE!!"

  14. #13934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    I can't see Biden winning Texas.

    It's going to take a seismic political shift for that to happen.

    Granted it's already started but i don't think we're there yet.
    If it happens, rejoice, if not, better luck next time.

  15. #13935
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChangingStation View Post
    If it happens, rejoice, if not, better luck next time.
    If it happens....i'll drink my stomach out.

    My ulcer be damned!
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

    "BE WOKE, VOTE!!"

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