All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[JCAll]

If Biden manages to win this in a wild comeback , i will call him the Pat Mahomes of politics. He won the primaries when a lot thought he was finished after a couple places. He came back from that and if does this ...wow.

Yeah, I remember in the primary I thought Biden was out of it from the start. Then he won one, and he just kept winning as people started jumping on board. If can pull that trick off again he must have a genie tucked away somewhere.

Like, if we're all going to be talking about where we were when Arizona flipped.

[kingaliencracker]

Yeah, I remember in the primary I thought Biden was out of it from the start. Then he won one, and he just kept winning as people started jumping on board. If can pull that trick off again he must have a genie tucked away somewhere.

Like, if we're all going to be talking about where we were when Arizona flipped.

But again, his only competition was Bernie Sanders, who had a heart attack in the middle of the primaries and wasn't budging on his more extreme left viewpoints in some more moderate states. It feels far less like a comeback for Biden and more like "Default".

[Revolutionary_Jack]

But again, his only competition was Bernie Sanders, who had a heart attack in the middle of the primaries and wasn't budging on his more extreme left viewpoints in some more moderate states. It feels far less like a comeback for Biden and more like "Default".

Bernie Sanders lost big time to African-American voters on Super Tuesday. He overperformed certainly for an independent in a Dem primary, but he was too much of an unknown quantity.

And again since the Cuban-American votes were decisive for Trump in taking Florida, where's the guarantee that Sanders (who is on record praising aspects of Castro's Cuba, some aspects mind you not all) would have taken Florida if he stood. In a sense, if Biden wins narrowly, Bernie gets a benefit. He has the advantage of not being blamed for any potential Dem defeat, and he has the advantage of being "i told you so" since the moderate Dem candidate didn't become the overwhelming prohibitive candidate everyone assumed.

If there's a takeaway so far, it's that voters like to "vote for" someone rather than simply "vote against". People voted "for" Obama in 2008 and 2012, but in 2016 and now 2020, Dem voters are more driven to vote "against Trump" than "for Biden".

Also that the Red voters really care about the SCOTUS, since McConnell and others rushing ACB to the nomination is probably responsible for the GOP's strong showing in the Senate. In that respect, you might want to blame Ginsburg. Her decision to not retire when the Dems had the WH and the Senate is what led to ACB. A younger justice by a Dem would have butterflied that away and the GOP would have lost the Senate and Red Voters would not have been as enthused.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Hmmmm, Tami is right. Assuming Trump takes Pennsylvania and the rest of the map stays the same Biden wins 270 to 268, as a result of winning both of the congressional districts in Maine.

Michigan could still go red though, Flint Michigan's votes haven't fully come in (The former hollowed out union stronghold, that Michael Moore bites his nails over) and overseas military votes, so we shall see.

Biden doesn’t need PA.

His paths are as follows.

Current: 238

+10 Wisconsin +16 Michigan +6 Nevada gets him to 270.


+10 Wisconsin +16 Michigan +16 Georgia gets him to 280

You could also sub out the less likely NC with 15 votes for either Nevada or Wisconsin in the first scenario.

PA only becomes crucial if Michigan comes up short.

FYI: the Wisconsin commission is saying it’s Biden.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Bernie Sanders lost big time to African-American voters on Super Tuesday. He overperformed certainly for an independent in a Dem primary, but he was too much of an unknown quantity.

And again since the Cuban-American votes were decisive for Trump in taking Florida, where's the guarantee that Sanders (who is on record praising aspects of Castro's Cuba, some aspects mind you not all) would have taken Florida if he stood. In a sense, if Biden wins narrowly, Bernie gets a benefit. He has the advantage of not being blamed for any potential Dem defeat, and he has the advantage of being "i told you so" since the moderate Dem candidate didn't become the overwhelming prohibitive candidate everyone assumed.

If there's a takeaway so far, it's that voters like to "vote for" someone rather than simply "vote against". People voted "for" Obama in 2008 and 2012, but in 2016 and now 2020, Dem voters are more driven to vote "against Trump" than "for Biden".

Also that the Red voters really care about the SCOTUS, since McConnell and others rushing ACB to the nomination is probably responsible for the GOP's strong showing in the Senate. In that respect, you might want to blame Ginsburg. Her decision to not retire when the Dems had the WH and the Senate is what led to ACB. A younger justice by a Dem would have butterflied that away and the GOP would have lost the Senate and Red Voters would not have been as enthused.

The point is you write off Florida now. You are never getting a more right leaning Dem on the ticket again. If they can do it to Biden they can do it to Kamala who actually gave lip service to M4A. Biden is relic of an older generation.

You give up on Florida and you play harder for the rust belts. Nevada is now a critical state for Biden and it was a huge strength for Sanders.

[kingaliencracker]

Bernie Sanders lost big time to African-American voters on Super Tuesday. He overperformed certainly for an independent in a Dem primary, but he was too much of an unknown quantity.

And again since the Cuban-American votes were decisive for Trump in taking Florida, where's the guarantee that Sanders (who is on record praising aspects of Castro's Cuba, some aspects mind you not all) would have taken Florida if he stood. In a sense, if Biden wins narrowly, Bernie gets a benefit. He has the advantage of not being blamed for any potential Dem defeat, and he has the advantage of being "i told you so" since the moderate Dem candidate didn't become the overwhelming prohibitive candidate everyone assumed.

If there's a takeaway so far, it's that voters like to "vote for" someone rather than simply "vote against". People voted "for" Obama in 2008 and 2012, but in 2016 and now 2020, Dem voters are more driven to vote "against Trump" than "for Biden".

Also that the Red voters really care about the SCOTUS, since McConnell and others rushing ACB to the nomination is probably responsible for the GOP's strong showing in the Senate. In that respect, you might want to blame Ginsburg. Her decision to not retire when the Dems had the WH and the Senate is what led to ACB. A younger justice by a Dem would have butterflied that away and the GOP would have lost the Senate and Red Voters would not have been as enthused.

But I don't feel Sanders would have flipped Arizona or Wisconsin (and possibly Michigan) the way Biden did. So it's almost a wash in the end.

[kingaliencracker]

Biden doesn’t need PA.

His paths are as follows.

Current: 238

+10 Wisconsin +16 Michigan +6 Nevada gets him to 270.


+10 Wisconsin +16 Michigan +16 Georgia gets him to 280

You could also sub out the less likely NC with 15 votes for either Nevada or Wisconsin in the first scenario.

PA only becomes crucial if Michigan comes up short.

FYI: the Wisconsin commission is saying it’s Biden.

With only 67% of the vote counted and an 8000 vote lead I wouldn't call Nevada a lock for Biden.

If he holds on to all three states then yes, he wins and PA is irrelevant. But if he doesn't hold on in NV then he has to swing PA with the remaining votes.

[The no face guy]

Biden doesn’t need PA.

His paths are as follows.

Current: 238

+10 Wisconsin +16 Michigan +6 Nevada gets him to 270.


+10 Wisconsin +16 Michigan +16 Georgia gets him to 280

You could also sub out the less likely NC with 15 votes for either Nevada or Wisconsin in the first scenario.

PA only becomes crucial if Michigan comes up short.

FYI: the Wisconsin commission is saying it’s Biden.

Well I'm calling it now, Biden wins the election!

Biden's lead in Arizona looks like it's growing and if he holds on in Michigan it game over Trump. A victory for rationality and the enlightenment, later folks.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

But I don't feel Sanders would have flipped Arizona or Wisconsin (and possibly Michigan) the way Biden did. So it's almost a wash in the end.

So in the end, Bernie Sanders enjoys the benefit of the "what-if". Which is good. Remember it would have been much much worse for Sanders and his movement (which I support and endorse) if he won the nomination and lost. Look at England where Corbyn, a far more radical figure than Sanders led the Labour party to a historic defeat...that's pretty much killed the dream of any real left-wing mass movement on the ballot any time.

The stakes are really much higher for the left. If the left field a candidate on the major election, they have to win big and really big (Obama big, FDR big, Jacinda Ardearn big even) because one big defeat and that's it they're finished.

Whereas Sanders promoted himself to a major national figure, kept the cause alive, and the Progressives stay afloat. I read online, "the Squad" including Ilhan Omar in Michigan got re-elected.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

With only 67% of the vote counted and an 8000 vote lead I wouldn't call Nevada a lock for Biden.

If he holds on to all three states then yes, he wins and PA is irrelevant. But if he doesn't hold on in NV then he has to swing PA with the remaining votes.

It’s not but neither is PA. If Biden wins Wisconsin he basically did and Michigan (he’s on his way) then he just need 6 votes. PA, NV, GA, and NC all get him to 270. PA is not the path way anymore. It’s one of 4 on the must likely scenario

[InformationGeek]

Hmmmmm, well well...

BREAKING Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator says on @NBCNews: “All of the ballots have been counted.” Joe Biden has won Wisconsin by 20,697 votes.

[Joker]

In America we still have a frightening amount of people who mock smart folks, ridicule scientists/teachers/the educated as elites, deny science as biased or a religion, and go with their feelings despite mountains of proof refuting them.

This election has proven that with no shadow of a doubt.

This pandemic.

Basically all Health Officials everywhere: wear a small, light piece of cloth over your mouth and nose to stop the spread of a horrible disease.

Lots of people: NO! MY FREEDOM! Etc...

Disease runs rampant. Expected 400,000 Dead Americans by February.

Those same people: It's no worse than the flu.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

So in the end, Bernie Sanders enjoys the benefit of the "what-if". Which is good. Remember it would have been much much worse for Sanders and his movement (which I support and endorse) if he won the nomination and lost. Look at England where Corbyn, a far more radical figure than Sanders led the Labour party to a historic defeat...that's pretty much killed the dream of any real left-wing mass movement on the ballot any time.

The stakes are really much higher for the left. If the left field a candidate on the major election, they have to win big and really big (Obama big, FDR big, Jacinda Ardearn big even) because one big defeat and that's it they're finished.

Whereas Sanders promoted himself to a major national figure, kept the cause alive, and the Progressives stay afloat. I read online, "the Squad" including Ilhan Omar in Michigan got re-elected.

Corbyn isn’t really a great example. Corbyn lost off Brexit. The dirty secret is labour strongholds actually liked Brexit but Corbyn had to run against it and it was the definitive issue in that election.

[kingaliencracker]

It’s not but neither is PA. If Biden wins Wisconsin he basically did and Michigan (he’s on his way) then he just need 6 votes. PA, NV, GA, and NC all get him to 270. PA is not the path way anymore. It’s one of 4 on the must likely scenario

I really don't foresee Georgia or NC swinging to Biden. He needs to hold on to Nevada or swing Pennsylvania. That's his path. He'll win Wisconsin and Michigan I believe. But Nevada is murkier.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Corbyn isn’t really a great example. Corbyn lost off Brexit. The dirty secret is labour strongholds actually liked Brexit but Corbyn had to run against it and it was the definitive issue in that election.

Fact is he lost. Lost badly. He didn't put the left over even against a candidate as terrible as Mid-life Draco Malfoy.

And that meant that the Labour's great plans and ideas, which are indeed excellent, will never take fruition.

Right now, I like the SNP, they have a good leader under Nicola Sturgeon and I hope well for Scotland, come what may. The Labour Party doesn't have good politicians. Say what you want about the Dems, but Biden is better than this Starmer character, and Sanders is better than Corbyn as politicians.