All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[kingaliencracker]

Yes but Trump is gaining ground. I don't like this race anymore. Arizona was the safety net that allowed Biden to win without PA. He could have just taken NV and called it a night. The issue right now is that Trump is gaining in Ariizona which is making it a winnable state. Trump is leading in PA and we are hoping that the cities get us over the top. Trump is likely to take Georgia and North Carolina. And the one state Biden is leading in is only a by around 7500 votes (Nevada). Biden has more paths as of now but it's presuming two close states actually stay for him.

At this point if Biden wins it's going to between 270-290 with a very real scenario where the election is a 270-268 result.

This is getting dangerous.

Until they take Arizona off the board for Biden I wouldn't stress about that. The real stress is Biden keeping his hold on Nevada.

[Steel Inquisitor]

He wasn't. He just ran differently in 2008 and promised a lot of hope and change. The truth is mainstream Democrats have a very hard time seeing the difference between Obama the person and Obama the President. Obama the President left alot of people dissatisified and unhappy.

People have the right to be disappointed with Obama, he wasn't perfect. But when I hear these complaints it's from people who think Obama had more power then he actually had and don't understand how congress works. For example, blaming Obama for not closing Gitmo. He tried, the reason he failed was because congress didn't let him they needed to vote on this. Being president is difficult, it's not like being a king in an absolute monarchy where anything goes. The reason Republican politics get to do more is because they have less barriers in the government and congress blocking them and it's easier to destroy than build things. That's not getting into how the congress Dems had a brief window of a majority in his first term and ran away from him in congress during crucial things he was working on.

Trump has problems with himself, he can't even get a Republican held congress to do what he wants more then he should be because he's terrible at maintaining coalitions in congress. If you want to see the GOP at their most frightening in congress you should have been there for the W. years, it was a terrible smoothly oiled machine.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I know I shouldn’t be this naive after all the madness of the last four years, but I can’t help being shocked, surprised and, most of all, angry that despite Trump having badly mishandled the response to the virus, resulting in over a quarter million deaths, millions left unemployed from the resulting shutdown and an economy pushed to the brink, he got more votes in 2020 than he had in 2016. What the actual ****? I spent today being frustrated as hell because Trump should’ve been demolished, but, like Dracula, the son of a bitch refuses to die because people want four more years of his insanity, shaking what little faith I have left in humanity. I just want this **** to be over so I can sleep.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I think the problem is The Dems were grossly over confident going into last night. Yes they flipped a couple House seats. But the GOP gained 5 seats and The Dems did not gain the number they were expecting. If Biden wins it is not the slam dunk they thought it would be (Yes the popular vote but I am talking the EC because that is what matters). It doesnt look like they will gain the Senate.

They could have done so much better I think but sadly did not. I think they wasted too much money in Ky on the Mitch/Magrath that they had no chance of winning and could have sent that else where.

And you know Trump is worried because the Twitter post a minute king has been very silent the last two days.

Don't get me started. I could scream about Kentucky and how fucking stupid it was to piss away all that money and time on McGrath in both the primary and the general. She was a **** candidate and everyone knew she was losing, but people got rabid trying to replace Mitch when their was no chance of it happening. It just wasn't intelligent and was a completely foolish and emotional reaction.

Anyways yes the Dems botched this. Sorry this is the second time they decided to disregard basic principles of elections because they thought Trump was so different they could run off not being him. Rule 1, give voters a reason to vote for you instead of why they shouldn't vote for your opponenet. Biden's strategy being based around a "return to decency" was stupid a year ago and is stupid now. Nobody gave a **** about it and it was a complete platitude.

The big thing, which is still being undersold, is the fact that this is a year to redraw some districts. Those House losses matter. They are a MASSIVE DEAL.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Until they take Arizona off the board for Biden I wouldn't stress about that. The real stress is Biden keeping his hold on Nevada.

That's been my main stress all day. Arizona is just added. I think if that's gone it goes back to PA

[Tendrin]

...except we're not a democracy. We're a republic. There is a difference.

This is a garbage point.

A Republic is a type of democratic governance.

[The Overlord]

Bernie or someone with his political leanings, have to convince the party that they would be the best shot. It isn't just the DNC they have to convince, it is the people. The primary race always gets boiled down to the delegates but there is a popular vote count. And in 2016 and 2020 Bernie lost the popular vote. Now he got closer in 2020 and maybe in a potential 2024 a progressive candidate could win. But if they can't convince the people that agree with them 75 to 90 percent of the time, how effective could they be with people with a completely different political ideology?

I think the fact that almost everyone dropped out on super Tuesday and endorsed Biden is what got Biden the nomination, he was not doing that great till then.

The party machinery is controlled by the same third wave politicians they have been running since 1992, they keep on getting the nominations, despite their mixed track record, because of that.

If the GOP picks someone like Tom Cotton next time, what will the Dems do counter him?

The Dems are in a weak position now, despite winning, is a type of victory Biden's ''electability'' was supposed to gain, one where he barely wins and is diminished due to the Dems not winning the Senate? If he was most electable and Trump was such a disaster, shouldn't he have won big?

It seems like Biden bunted instead of getting a home run.

Biden has to deal with a recession, a pandemic, and a hostile Senate, what exactly is going to be able to do deal with these issues. If the Senate foils most of Biden's initiatives and Biden comes off as an instant lame duck, wouldn't that make the Democrats look like failures in the eyes of the public? Couldn't the GOP make a massive come back after that?

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I think the fact that almost everyone dropped out on super Tuesday and endorsed Biden is what got Biden the nomination, he was not doing that great till then.

The party machinery is controlled by the same third wave politicians they have been running since 1992, they keep on getting the nominations, despite their mixed track record, because of that.

If the GOP picks someone like Tom Cotton next time, what will the Dems do counter him?

The Dems are in a weak position now, despite winning, is a type of the victory Biden's ''electability'' was supposed to gain, one where he barely wins and is diminished due to the Dems not winning the Senate? If he was most electable and Trump was such a disaster, shouldn't he have won big?

It seems like Biden bunted instead of getting a home run.

Pretty much this. Biden got the Clyburn endorsement which kept him alive (in a state that didn't matter last night) and then he had his big rally in Texas where all his opponents endorsed him heavily and dropped out last minute. That basicly created an immediate shift and then Super Tuesday completely changed the complexion of the race over two days.

[Tendrin]

I think the fact that almost everyone dropped out on super Tuesday and endorsed Biden is what got Biden the nomination, he was not doing that great till then.

I mean, sure, a bunch of people who weren't going to win and had no viable path forward could have stayed in. Sanders' actual strategy was to badly hope that none of them did the sensible thing they ultimately did. They were trying to win the nom the same way Trump did, without bearing in mind that everyone had just seen that four years ago.

The party machinery is controlled by the same third wave politicians they have been running since 1992, they keep on getting the nominations, despite their mixed track record, because of that.

This ignores the high profile roles of Sanders-friendly members of the party machinery.

If the GOP picks someone like Tom Cotton next time, what will the Dems do counter him?

Run Kamala Harris. Who else?

The Dems are in a weak position now, despite winning, is a type of the victory Biden's ''electability'' was supposed to gain, one where he barely wins and is diminished due to the Dems not winning the Senate? If he was most electable and Trump was such a disaster, shouldn't he have won big?

Take the W, dude. It's not a sure thing that Bernie would have gotten it. The W matters. As a member of the left, we have to understand that we're not a majority.

It seems like Biden bunted instead of getting a home run.

[/QUOTE]

Sure, he didn't get an electoral landslide that we all wanted, but I think you're fundamentally underestimating Trump.

[Mister Mets]

USPS Fails To Meet Deadline To Permit Search For 300,000 Missing Mailed Ballots

Coincidence? Shouldn't DeJoy be sent to prison for this?

This seems to be greatly exaggerated.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akdd...s-deliver-them

Trump can run again but the problem is that the last non-consecutive Presidential Terms happened before term limits. When you had no term limits, backing a candidate who lost once and is coming again could be justified as an investment,

but with term limits, why back a candidate who can guarantee a four year term at best rather than another candidate who can give you 8.

The POTUS term limits needs a constitutional amendment and the Dems will not support it.

Furthermore, the stink of a "one-term President" which Trump will carry will be hard to shake.

I'm not sure Trump supporters would be so strategic.

He could make a Grover Cleveland argument, that this is a period in which his party is doing poorly, and he's gotten the best results, a narrow win followed by a narrow loss. He could also claim that unusual circumstances took him down, and that he's vindicated by whatever policy tradeoffs from the Biden administration are pissing off conservative voters in 2023, and that voters will recognize it next time around.

It is possible Bernie could have been more competitive against Trump this time or 2016.

The fact is the Dems have been running the same type of politicans since the 1990s, with diminishing results at this point, maybe Bernie would won or lost or done the same result as Biden did, that is just speculation. What I do know is the third wave centerists have done a poor job at countering Trump brand fascism. Biden won due to Trump being hobbled by Covid-19, if not for that, Trump would have coasted to victory.

Not being Trump is not a valuable position in 2024, time to develop something else.

For the people who think Biden is weaker than a more progressive candidate, is there any evidence for this in a general election context?

Is there a state where a progressive candidate either did better than Biden, or helped lift Biden's numbers when compared to a similar state?

[zinderel]

...except we're not a democracy. We're a republic. There is a difference.

We are both. Our republic is represented by our legislators. Our democracy is represented by our voters. Our voters elect our legislation and our executive branch. The EC gets in the way of those votes by giving extra power to imaginary borders over the voters within those borders.

We claim, as a nation, to be champions of - and representatives of - the ideals of democracy, while operating our government as a republic. That is why we have the legislative system we do. I am aware of the difference, and acknowledging that difference changes nothing in regards to my stance that the EC undermines both the 'democratic ideal' (by giving land masses based on imaginary borders extra power to select presidents, instead of the people) AND the 'representative republic' (by adding extra weight to far right politicians and ideals that undervalue the generally progressive slant of the country) for which we claim to stand.

[Steel Inquisitor]

Ultimately I do not think he was that different policy-wise from Bill Clinton. Different style sure, likely a better President than Clinton, but not that different on policy.

What policies do you think Obama has?

And did the Dems win the Senate? What is he going to do if he doesn't win the Senate? You seem to paper over their failures all the time: Al Gore lost, John Kerry lost, Hillary Clinton lost and Biden barely won and really only due to the fact that Trump got hobbled by Covid-19. They have done a piss poor job at fighting Trump fascism and I am not saying Bernie would clean up, now or in 2016, what I am saying is the so-called Centrist ideology has done a piss poor job at opposing Republican extremism.

I'm not "papering" over anything, acknowledging the Dems as not being absolute terrible at anything isn't putting them on a pedestal. But what I don't see is any acknowledgment if their wins or what obstacles they have to overcome, things the left take for granted as rolling over if they gain power. Bill Clinton and Obama won, Bernie lost. Twice. They all won their presidential primaries. Please don't erase the losses the left do, they're worse than centrists are at winning. The implication of your argument is that Bernie would actually succeed, so yes you're saying he would "clean up."

None of your posts acknowledge what factions need to overcome to get into leadership, as if the centrists just showed up and Obama handed it to them on a silver platter.

The attacks on the centrists attacking fascism would have more weight if the left truly had a superior record in congress on that score. They don't. Absolutely no complaints about the left's failures in congress, while dumping all the responsibility of the GOP's victories on the centrists (and there are more factions going on than the centrists).

Biden will do what he can without the senate, like anyone would, that's not a gotcha.

If the left don't have an advantage over fighting fascism then the centrists what's the goal here? We know they have the opposite. They may have popular ideas, but their politicians can't get elected for it to matter to move politics as left as they want. They get minor victories, victories centrists get every year and more as business as usual in higher numbers.

Will Dems run on ''not being Republicans'' in 2024 or will they have a better message?

You need to pay more attention to what the Democrats are doing besides not being Republicans. Like what?

This is not a great victory, its barely winning by the skin of your teeth and having a diminished President as the prize, it's better than losing outright, but without the Senate, Biden is pretty limited in what he can do. It was not a big blue wave pollsters were talking about.

Yes, it is. You're not offering a better solution here. Things are dire and we should bet on someone who can't even go to the anniversary of Blood Sunday during the primaries. It wasn't, except this assumes Bernie can deliver that. Based on nothing.

What were Biden's strengths? Why didn't his strengths translate into a bigger win? He barely won, despite Trump getting 200,000 people killed due to mishandling Covid-19. Also, they called Biden a socialist, so it doesn't matter who they run, the Republicans will call them socialists regardless.

It's pretty bad when it's a squeaker and Trump got 200,000 Americans killed on his watch.

He was able to get conservative states like Arizona in his corner. Calling someone a socialist and being a socialist is not the same, there's no footage of Biden signal boosting people like Castro. That's be a deathblow to a campaign.

And you think appealing to a faction who can't even get that far is somehow going to get better results?

[Mecegirl]

The shift worked though. Bernie had the lead he did because other democratic votes were split. Once those votes were consolidated he couldn't keep the numbers to push through. Normal people who voted in the primary after SC at that point had their number one in the race drop out. But no one was mind controlling them into voting Biden. They had a choice. They could either buy someone like Clyburn's argument, or Bernie's. And well, we saw what happend.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I mean, sure, a bunch of people who weren't going to win and had no viable path forward could have stayed in. Sanders' actual strategy was to badly hope that none of them did the sensible thing they ultimately did. They were trying to win the nom the same way Trump did, without bearing in mind that everyone had just seen that four years ago.


This ignores the high profile roles of Sanders-friendly members of the party machinery.


Run Kamala Harris. Who else?


Take the W, dude. It's not a sure thing that Bernie would have gotten it. The W matters. As a member of the left, we have to understand that we're not a majority.

Sure, he didn't get an electoral landslide that we all wanted, but I think you're fundamentally underestimating Trump.[/QUOTE]

The problem is Sanders wasn't wrong to think that. That scenario only plays out if all the other candidates are specifically motivated to block him over their own success. In other primaries you don't see everyone dropping out at the same time specifically to rally around someone they were attacking a few ago. Maybe people should realize that Trump winning the nom the way he did (without interferencing and being railroaded) gave Republicans a candidate who overperforms all the time. It would be like if Cruz, Rubio, and Graham rushed out to endorse Jeb Bush. Bush still would have lost.

Democrats keep a finger on the scale and try to control outcomes and then get blindsided when they struggle without their safety net.

We don't know that it's a W yet. It's dangerously close. Trump needs to either overcome an 7500 vote gap in Nevada and then stay the same everywhere else and he wins. We are actually in a shitty spot right now. Also we already lost a gerrymandering battle, we already lost any court or fillibuster reform, any chance at a relief bill, any real legislation over the next few years.

[numberthirty]

Barely, but yes he squeaked to the finish line before Donald which I guess is a good thing even if Trump has proven to be a much more formidable opponent against him than what many predicted.

Exactly.

If this was a "Last Man Standing..." match, Joe would have fallen over on top of Trump as soon as he went down.