All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[The no face guy]

Biden got saved by Covid. That is abundantly clear right now. Pretty much everything they banked on didn't pan out. Biden was supposed to be strong in Florida. He decisively lost it. Biden was supposed to be strong in Pennyslvania, it's an extremely tight race that could go either way. He was supposed to be able to build a multicultural coalition with strong black and Hispanic support. He did worse than Hillary in the minority vote and is about to give Trump the best GOP minority turnout since 1960. He didn't win the Senate. He actually lost seats in the House which nobody saw coming. He was supposed to bring in moderate Republicans and he didn't.

Basically Covid created a situation where there was enough dissatisfaction with Trump combined with a massive increase in mail in voting (which made it more accessible) that turnout across the board increased. It increased for Trump as well. Trump currently sits at 68.3 million votes. That outpaces Hillary's final total 4 years ago. Biden actually created an environment where Trump wildly overperfomed and did better than 2016. The increased turnout across the board was just enough to even out the margins in the rust belt that really killed Hillary because the low turnout allowed Trump to sneak in just over her.

That's pretty much what the data is showing. Biden's entire strategy going in actually backfired. Basically increased turnout (that also happened for Trump due to early voting) and some older white people who got scared of the Covid response is what is going to create an extremely narrow victory (I hope).

Trump was not strong candidate to suggest that he was unbeatable or should be doing this well. The data just doesn't bare that out on any level. It didn't in 2016 and it didn't this year. The tightness is because most of the bets the Biden campaign made just didn't work out. If Biden did everything that his campaign said they were aiming for, this would have been the wave election people were expecting. No the Democrats just made two very winnable elections very difficult because they bought into alot of allusions that you could be lazy and coast off Trump's negatives. You probably could have just run a generic Democrat who can give a good speech and mimic this result if they have nothing else going for them.

I agree with some of the things you say, before COVID broke out the pollsters had Trump winning in 2020. However I don't think you give Biden enough credit.

Biden won the election primarily by flipping Arizona, a state that has only gone Democratic once since 1952. That is no small feat, and he did it by getting the Hispanic vote out in Phoenix and Tucson Arizona. That is a moral blow to the Republican Party.

Finally, I don't think Biden had to do much other than stepping aside to watch Trump embrace the hard right and the anti conspiracy nuts that alienated suburban voters. Sometimes the best strategy is to let your opponent self destruct.

[numberthirty]

I agree with some of the things you say, before COVID broke out the pollsters had Trump winning in 2020. However I don't think you give Biden enough credit.

Biden won the election primarily by flipping Arizona, a state that has only gone Democratic once since 1952. That is no small feat, and he did it by getting the Hispanic vote out in Phoenix and Tucson Arizona. That is a moral blow to the Republican Party.

Finally, I don't think Biden had to do much other than stepping aside to watch Trump embrace the hard right and the anti conspiracy nuts that alienated suburban voters. Sometimes the best strategy is to let your opponent self destruct.

That's sorta the whole point though...

The only reason that he actually needed Arizona to come through to put the win together?

It's that he straight up face planted in all of the swing states he was supposed to easily deliver.

[numberthirty]

Don't get me wrong, though...

I'm glad the guy managed to stumble into the win(fingers crossed...)

I'm just not going to try to turn it into some political feat that it wasn't.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I agree with some of the things you say, before COVID broke out the pollsters had Trump winning in 2020. However I don't think you give Biden enough credit.

Biden won the election primarily by flipping Arizona, a state that has only gone Democratic once since 1952. That is no small feat, and he did it by getting the Hispanic vote out in Phoenix and Tucson Arizona. That is a moral blow to the Republican Party.

Finally, I don't think Biden had to do much other than stepping aside to watch Trump embrace the hard right and the anti conspiracy nuts that alienated suburban voters. Sometimes the best strategy is to let your opponent self destruct.

I will concede Arizona is the one bright spot. Biden also was supposed to dominate PA. He didn't. It's the tightest midwest state. He was supposed to be strong in Florida. That was a big selling point his campaign touted in the primary. He lost it worse than Hillary by a significant margin. He lost Ohio worse than Hillary. Texas wasn't even competetive. He underwhelmed in most places and it cost Senate and House turnout. Basically aside from Arizona and possibly Georgia Biden pretty much got smoked in every close state that had potential to go Trump and didn't have some of the advantages he had in states he was supposed to clearly win. Add that in with the fact that he did very badly with the non white vote comparatively to most of his peers for over 60 years and you don't get a great picture.

If you go by historical trends, 2016 was a dumpster fire where one historically bad candidate lost a bunch of (as 30 calls them) coin flips, and 2020 is basically just a high turnout raising both candidates floors proportionately and Biden did worse with minorities in states that did matter in exchange for doing slightly better with older whites in the coin flip states from 2016 while wreaking chaos across the congressional board. In fact Biden's underperformance in most of the country is specifically the result of the House. Democrats thought they were going to gain seats in the House. The Senate is completely out of play

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Don't get me wrong, though...

I'm glad the guy managed to stumble into the win(fingers crossed...)

I'm just not going to try to turn it into some political feat that it wasn't.

I'm not even as far as you. I basically flew across the goddamn country to get back the state I live in to vote for Biden and I had money on Biden. I wanted a domination. I'm infuriated by what is happening.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

1. It's not condescending, it's just pointing out that literally no data shows that Trump was some monster unbeatable candidate or that Biden was particularly strong. It's ABC logic.

Politics and elections are not about logic.

It like taking a 2 seperate races that the same person qualified for and saying oh Sam beat Bob that must mean Sam is incredible, oh Mike barely beat Sam, he must be the only person on the planet who could beat Sam.

In sports you do get fluke and upset victories. In politics, such stuff is irrelevant. There's no difference between a fluke win or a hard win and so on.

Like I said politics is its own thing. It's not an art, not a science, not sports. It's just it's own thing.

You could just do the research.

I could wait for all the data to come in and then draw a conclusion. That's what real research means. Because right now not all the votes are counted, we don't account for voter suppression (which was still high this year) and not all the votes are counted yet.

[numberthirty]

I'm not even as far as you. I basically flew across the goddamn country to get back the state I live in to vote for Biden and I had money on Biden. I wanted a domination. I'm infuriated by what is happening.

I kinda figured he(and the Democrats...) would do about as well as they did.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

That's sorta the whole point though...

The only reason that he actually needed Arizona to come through to put the win together?

It's that he straight up face planted in all of the swing states he was supposed to easily deliver.

Arizona was one of the swing states Biden targeted. He and Harris campaigned heavily there. Maricopa County was getting dyed blue. You make it sound like AZ was some kind of afterthought but Biden and Harris went hard for AZ, as hard as any other swing state.

The same efforts that failed in other states worked in AZ...so what's the morality play here?

[The no face guy]

That's sorta the whole point though...

The only reason that he actually needed Arizona to come through to put the win together?

It's that he straight up face planted in all of the swing states he was supposed to easily deliver.

No one thought he was going to be able to easily deliver the mid west rust belt.

Ohio was slated to stay red, and Pennsylvania has been an ongoing nail biter for Democrats, but he did his job and took back Wisconsin and Michigan.

Biden & Harris developed a really good strategy by effectively getting the mail in ballots in en mass, and they deserve credit for it.

It's tipping the scales in many States, the remaining vote counts are now in his favour, so it is possible another state could flip to blue, in short the Biden campaign knows what they're doing.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Politics and elections are not about logic.



In sports you do get fluke and upset victories. In politics, such stuff is irrelevant. There's no difference between a fluke win or a hard win and so on.

Like I said politics is its own thing. It's not an art, not a science, not sports. It's just it's own thing.



I could wait for all the data to come in and then draw a conclusion. That's what real research means. Because right now not all the votes are counted, we don't account for voter suppression (which was still high this year) and not all the votes are counted yet.

Well if you are just going to ignore literally everything then it's no use bothering. So peace

[Kevinroc]

Biden lost Florida, in large part, due to "he's a socialist" attacks. (Republicans say this about every Democrat even though we know it isn't true.)

[numberthirty]

Arizona was one of the swing states Biden targeted. He and Harris campaigned heavily there. Maricopa County was getting dyed blue. You make it sound like AZ was some kind of afterthought but Biden and Harris went hard for AZ, as hard as any other swing state.

The same efforts that failed in other states worked in AZ...so what's the morality play here?

When you were supposed to have a great shot at handily winning them all?

That you needed however tight the win will be here because you blew the rest of them?

Again, it's the whole point.

His entire case during the primary? It was a bottle of snake oil.

[numberthirty]

No one thought he was going to be able to easily deliver the mid west rust belt.

Ohio was slated to stay red, and Pennsylvania has been an ongoing nail biter for Democrats, but he did his job and took back Wisconsin and Michigan.

Biden & Harris developed a really good strategy by effectively getting the mail in ballots in en mass, and they deserve credit for it.

It's tipping the scales in many States, the remaining vote counts are now in his favour, so it is possible another state could flip to blue, in short the Biden campaign knows what they're doing.

Absolutely happened in the older threads.

I could probably even point you towards it. Not much of a point in going back in this thread.

As for "Took Them Back.." gotta politely disagree. Particularly when it comes to Wisconsin. With a couple of exceptions, it's often been a coin flip.

Biden just lucked into it coming up tails.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Biden lost Florida, in large part, due to "he's a socialist" attacks. (Republicans say this about every Democrat even though we know it isn't true.)

With Biden, he was VP to Obama who was behind the Cuban Thaw. Now Hillary Clinton won 54% of the Cuban-American vote, but she also wasn't in the Obama Administration at the time that happened. The Cuban Thaw is generally popular (even Trump hasn't fully reversed it unlike the Iran deal) but not among the hardline crowd. Older voters when warned about Biden's socialism could connect it to that and this became a vengeance vote.

Also Florida and especially Miami-Dade was flooded with misinformation and conspiracy theories.

When you were supposed to have a great shot at handily winning them all?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. Biden aimed for all, hoped to get them all, but he got one and it seems that might be the one that matter.

His entire case during the primary? It was a bottle of snake oil.

At this point I am getting the impression, correct me if I'm wrong, or as you say, Politely...I have to ask if you would have preferred Biden to have lost or trailed far behind just so that your jeremiad against him would find real purchase?

I knew the Dems weren't getting the Senate and the House wasn't doing so well yesterday when I saw the victory wasn't as immediate and decisive as everyone wanted. How is raging against Biden going to help with the 2022 midterms and so on? What's your strategy for that? If anything 2016-18-20 has proven, it's that anything is possible. There is no such thing as a "gimme..."

Obama was a great national candidate and yet under his Presidency, the Dems suffered overwhelming Midterm defeats. Does that mean that his presidency was a failure, a disaster, and so on? I don't think so. A popular candidate, a charismatic candidate does not automatically guarantee downballot buggy rides. It's hard to say what really makes it work.

[Kevinroc]

With Biden, he was VP to Obama who was behind the Cuban Thaw. Now Hillary Clinton won 54% of the Cuban-American vote, but she also wasn't in the Obama Administration at the time that happened. The Cuban Thaw is generally popular (even Trump hasn't fully reversed it unlike the Iran deal) but not among the hardline crowd. Older voters when warned about Biden's socialism could connect it to that and this became a vengeance vote.

Also Florida and especially Miami-Dade was flooded with misinformation and conspiracy theories.

All of this is indeed true. It's important to note that the Hispanic & Latinx vote isn't monolithic. This election certainly demonstrated that.