All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[numberthirty]

...

At this point I am getting the impression, correct me if I'm wrong, or as you say, Politely...I have to ask if you would have preferred Biden to have lost or trailed far behind just so that your jeremiad against him would find real purchase?

I knew the Dems weren't getting the Senate and the House wasn't doing so well yesterday when I saw the victory wasn't as immediate and decisive as everyone wanted. How is raging against Biden going to help with the 2022 midterms and so on? What's your strategy for that? If anything 2016-18-20 has proven, it's that anything is possible. There is no such thing as a "gimme..."

Obama was a great national candidate and yet under his Presidency, the Dems suffered overwhelming Midterm defeats. Does that mean that his presidency was a failure, a disaster, and so on? I don't think so. A popular candidate, a charismatic candidate does not automatically guarantee downballot buggy rides. It's hard to say what really makes it work.

For starters?

Internalize just how wrong the entire "This Is How It Is Going To Go..." actually was.

You probably won't have Trump, and might to have the GOP leading the way to hopefully drop a win into your lap next time out.

[The no face guy]

I will concede Arizona is the one bright spot. Biden also was supposed to dominate PA. He didn't. It's the tightest midwest state. He was supposed to be strong in Florida. That was a big selling point his campaign touted in the primary. He lost it worse than Hillary by a significant margin. He lost Ohio worse than Hillary. Texas wasn't even competetive. He underwhelmed in most places and it cost Senate and House turnout. Basically aside from Arizona and possibly Georgia Biden pretty much got smoked in every close state that had potential to go Trump and didn't have some of the advantages he had in states he was supposed to clearly win. Add that in with the fact that he did very badly with the non white vote comparatively to most of his peers for over 60 years and you don't get a great picture.

If you go by historical trends, 2016 was a dumpster fire where one historically bad candidate lost a bunch of (as 30 calls them) coin flips, and 2020 is basically just a high turnout raising both candidates floors proportionately and Biden did worse with minorities in states that did matter in exchange for doing slightly better with older whites in the coin flip states from 2016 while wreaking chaos across the congressional board. In fact Biden's underperformance in most of the country is specifically the result of the House. Democrats thought they were going to gain seats in the House. The Senate is completely out of play

You have to give Biden some credit, he won by beating an incumbent President, something that hasn't happened since 1992.

His strategy with the mail in vote has worked brilliantly, all the remaining votes are now in his favour, so it it possible he could still flip another State.

I disagree with you on some of the States you've mentioned. Ohio was slated to go red, PA has been a chronic concern for Democrats, primarily because it's been a large recipient of the defense contracts Trump has been doling out to keep the state on his side. Florida is more complex, there are various reasons for the low turn out, Sanders would have done better amongst the Hispanic vote there, but Biden won the Democratic Primary, so that's irrelevant.

As for doing slightly better with older whites, I consider that a good thing, because the story of 2016 was that the Democratic Party had completely lost the white working class vote, anything to help bring them back into the liberal coalition is a plus, because after all, at one point and time, they were the backbone of the Democratic Party.




Anyways I'll add this little edit, as I'm off to bed. If I wake up tomorrow, and Trump's somehow flipped Arizona I'll concede to your points, cheers.

[numberthirty]

All of this is indeed true. It's important to note that the Hispanic & Latinx vote isn't monolithic. This election certainly demonstrated that.

People were pointing this obvious reality out back when Sanders had the Latino support.

No one should have needed the election to actually spell it all out for them.

[numberthirty]

You have to give Biden some credit, he won by beating an incumbent President, something that hasn't happened since 1992.

His strategy with the mail in vote has worked brilliantly, all the remaining votes are now in his favour, so it it possible he could still flip another State.

I disagree with you on some of the States you've mentioned. Ohio was slated to go red, PA has been a chronic concern for Democrats, primarily because it's been a large recipient of the defense contracts Trump has been doling out to keep the state on his side. Florida is more complex, there are various reasons for the low turn out, Sanders would have done better amongst the Hispanic vote there, but Biden won the Democratic Primary, so that's irrelevant.

As for doing slightly better with older whites, I consider that a good thing, because the story of 2016 was that the Democratic Party had completely lost the white working class vote, anything to help bring them back into the liberal coalition is a plus, because after all, at one point and time, they were the backbone of the Democratic Party.

Let's get real for a minute.

Ninety percent of that win?

It was a pandemic beating Trump because he is a bonehead. Biden just happened to be there.

[Steel Inquisitor]

All of this is indeed true. It's important to note that the Hispanic & Latinx vote isn't monolithic. This election certainly demonstrated that.

That's been true for a while, people forget George W Bush was popular with Latino voters.

https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic...voted-in-2004/



Look at his cabinet:

[Timothy Hunter]

How confident is everyone that Biden is going to win?

[Gray Lensman]

You have to give Biden some credit, he won by beating an incumbent President, something that hasn't happened since 1992.

His strategy with the mail in vote has worked brilliantly, all the remaining votes are now in his favour, so it it possible he could still flip another State.

I disagree with you on some of the States you've mentioned. Ohio was slated to go red, PA has been a chronic concern for Democrats, primarily because it's been a large recipient of the defense contracts Trump has been doling out to keep the state on his side. Florida is more complex, there are various reasons for the low turn out, Sanders would have done better amongst the Hispanic vote there, but Biden won the Democratic Primary, so that's irrelevant.

As for doing slightly better with older whites, I consider that a good thing, because the story of 2016 was that the Democratic Party had completely lost the white working class vote, anything to help bring them back into the liberal coalition is a plus, because after all, at one point and time, they were the backbone of the Democratic Party.

Plus people forget that Bush was the third term of Republican hold on the White House, he was actually pretty weak as far as incumbents go, considering that 8 years has been all the country has been willing to give any Party since FDR/Truman with that one exception.

[JCAll]

How confident is everyone that Biden is going to win?

I'm going to say 50/50

[Killerbee911]

All of this is indeed true. It's important to note that the Hispanic & Latinx vote isn't monolithic. This election certainly demonstrated that.

I don't see why anyone would think that to begin with, for example in 2010 census 75% of Puerto Ricans self identified as white. How do you target a group that doesn't necessarily thinks it is "the group". No group is Monolithic(White rural Americans makes me think twice about that tho) I don't think anyone who has familiar with Latinx group is actually expecting one thought process.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Yeah its 50/50. No one is saying its a lock til we know. I hope he can do it. I also hope he wins Georgia.

[Username taken]

I don't see why anyone would think that to begin with, for example in 2010 census 75% of Puerto Ricans self identified as white. How do you target a group that doesn't necessarily thinks it is "the group". No group is Monolithic(White rural Americans makes me think twice about that tho) I don't think anyone who has familiar with Latinx group is actually expecting one thought process.

The thing is the parties shouldn't target people squarely by their race.

It's just as simple as that.

And we shouldn't be too surprised by the result in Florida. A lot of Hispanics there don't view themselves as minorities, they see themselves as white.

So, targeting them as some part of a "rainbow coalition" is a waste of time.

[Username taken]

Ok, Arizona is starting to give me some concern.

Trump has been closing the gap on Biden. It's now 69,000 votes separating them.

If Trump somehow closes the gap, Pennsylvania or Georgia become critical.

[Robotman]

Yeah its 50/50. No one is saying its a lock til we know. I hope he can do it. I also hope he wins Georgia.

I’m a big pessimist but it’s way higher than 50% chance. The states that are too close to call will finish up the vote tally by counting the remaining mail-in ballots. Biden is heavily favored to have the edge with mail-in ballots. If trends continue he’s going to take Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. He currently only needs one of those states to pass the 270 mark.

I’m sure Trump will continue to file nonstop lawsuits and cheat in any conceivable way so it could still be worrisome, but I’d much rather be in Biden’s shoes right now.

Ok, Arizona is starting to give me some concern.

Trump has been closing the gap on Biden. It's now 69,000 votes separating them.

If Trump somehow closes the gap, Pennsylvania or Georgia become critical.

The AP has already called Arizona for Biden. Here’s why:

The Associated Press has declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner in Arizona, flipping a longtime GOP state that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

The AP called the race at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up.

With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.

[JCAll]

I’m a big pessimist but it’s way higher than 50% chance. The states that are too close to call will finish up the vote tally by counting the remaining mail-in ballots. Biden is heavily favored to have the edge with mail-in ballots. If trends continue he’s going to take Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. He currently only needs one of those states to pass the 270 mark.

I think there are only 5 outcomes that matter now.

Biden wins if he gains the lead Pennsylvania
Biden wins if he gains the lead Georgia
Biden wins if he hold his lead in both Nevada and Arizona
Biden loses if he loses his lead in Nevada with no other pick ups
Biden loses if he loses his lead in Arizona with no other pick ups

So maybe 60/40 is a better estimate.

[JCAll]

The AP has already called Arizona for Biden. Here’s why:

The Associated Press has declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner in Arizona, flipping a longtime GOP state that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

The AP called the race at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up.

With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.

If Biden has finally locked down Arizona, I think Trump's only path is through Nevada. Or legal shenanigans.