All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[JackDaw]

The question is, will a lot of these voters turn out when Trump is no longer on the ballot? That part isn't so clear, given 2018.

There’s also the question of whether the Democrats get so many voters out if the Donald isn’t running. The turnout is huge both ways...surely some of those voting Democrat this time are effectively voting AGAINST Trump rather than for Joe.

[Tendrin]

There’s also the question of whether the Democrats get so many voters out if the Donald isn’t running. The turnout is huge both ways...surely some of those voting Democrat this time are effectively voting AGAINST Trump rather than for Joe.

I think Dem voters have learned a big lesson about not voting in the mids, but the question of ticket splitting, anti-Trump conservatives remains an open one.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Politely, you're kinda laying out the issue.

If what you are saying is indeed how things actually were, why was it such a central part of the Democratic case?

Unless they are "Next Level..." boneheads, you are saying that they were largely running on something that was incredibly foolish.

It's easy to say that in hindsight. I mean you yourself some pages back were going that Biden's victory is down to COVID and so on. The picture we are getting now complicates that somewhat.

The Pandemic is the major issue of 2020, it's the reason for mail-in ballots and the blue shift and so many more people voting for the first time since mail-in ballots and early voting is more convenient than going all in on Election Day as in the before times. So I wouldn't say it was "incredibly foolish" to focus so heavily on the Coronavirus and tie it to Trump.

People assumed that the Republican turnout in 2016 was the Republican turnout in full and that 2016 was a matter of all the Republican voters while the Dems didn't mobilize its full base. But now it seems like 2016, both parties didn't send out the full base. If the Republican turnout of 2016 was the same in 2020, yeah, maybe the Dems would have cleaned out in TX and FL, but it turns out it was a "this is not even my final form" kinda situation. In Florida, Ron DeSantis played down, and refused to enforce basic public safety measures and Floridians have been lackadaisical even as numbers and cases have risen high there. Texas under Gov. Abbott something similar. There are outliers...Ohio under DeWine did take the Pandemic seriously for a state with a GOP governor and Ohio has gone for Trump...so there and other parts, you can't entirely say it's COVID, but in general I think that explains why there was no repudiation of Trump for the coronavirus electorally (Popular vote wise, he gets a crushing rebuke and I don't need to remind you that COVID doesn't follow the Electoral College rules).

I didn't have expectations that the Republican voter base en masse would have a Saul at Damascus attitude towards the Dems. The hope was that enough would care in a few states that it would matter. And it did in AZ and also Georgia seemslike.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

I have entertained the possibility that Trump's voters were clearly all about him. And that they seemed content to stay put in 2018, but suddenly got motivated to come out for 2020...

Yeah because Trump is on the ballot in 2020 and not 2018.

...even though Trump f***ed the whole country up in the past 18 months. He got Barr to end the Mueller investigation, immediately did the Ukraine scandal, and then flailed through impeachment before paying next to no attention to Covid-19. But they still came out for him in the tens of millions, inexplicably.

Again this is the same voter base who were part of the anti-mask and anti-lockdown movement these part 8 months they've been behaving inexplicably and irrationally all this time...and now suddenly everyone is shocked that the shameless a--holes continue to support the shameless a--hole?

[numberthirty]

There’s also the question of whether the Democrats get so many voters out if the Donald isn’t running. The turnout is huge both ways...surely some of those voting Democrat this time are effectively voting AGAINST Trump rather than for Joe.

Also have to wonder what Democratic participation will amount to when the party came up snake eyes on a lot of the Congressional gains they were eyeing with those voters in play.

If that was how it went when you had probably the greatest potential "Against..." case that will ever be?

How does it go when you don't?

[JackDaw]

I think Dem voters have learned a big lesson about not voting in the mids, but the question of ticket splitting, anti-Trump conservatives remains an open one.

Yes. But take Mr Mets for example...he made it clear a long time ago he was voting for Joe mainly because he disliked The Donald. Give him a more like-able candidate and he will be back to his normal routine of voting Republican.

I really don’t think Mets is on his own on taking that line.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

EDITED: nevermind

[numberthirty]

Good to see that this guy has learned the error of his ways...

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/...l-defense-fund

Graham to donate $500K to Trump's legal defense fund

[Revolutionary_Jack]

One crazy story that got lost today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/stev...-podcast-.html

Apparently Steve Bannon got his twitter permanently banned for suggesting that Fauci and Christopher Wray's heads should be put on spikes outside the WH.

[JackDaw]

Could what the Donald did to the Republican Party (grab their Presidential nomination without any real political background) be done by some one else to the Democrats?

[Tendrin]

https://6abc.com/philly-police-inves...-plot/7689932/

PHILADELPHIA (WPVI) -- Philadelphia police are investigating an alleged plot to attack the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia on Thursday night.

Action News has learned that police got a tip about a group, possibly a family, driving up from Virginia in a Hummer to unleash an attack at the Convention Center where votes are being counted in Philadelphia.

Action News was there as a man was taken into custody. It's unclear how or if the man is connected with the investigation.

Police say they recovered a weapon and believe they recovered the Hummer they received a tip about.

No injuries have been reported.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Could what the Donald did to the Republican Party (grab their Presidential nomination without any real political background) be done by some one else to the Democrats?

In theory yes. In practice...

The problem with the GOP is that they haven't had a real national level candidate since Reagan. Reagan's legacy propelled HW, but then he became a one-termer.

Then came W. who beat Ann Richards in TX and that propelled him over John McCain (similar issue as HRC, never won a competitive election against a Blue Candidate in a contestible seat). W. himself remember lost the popular vote in 2000 (by an admittedly small margin) and in 2004 he won (with also a small margin) and he ended his Presidency with low approval ratings and was unpopular with his own base offering no legacy for McCain in '08. Romney in 2012 also failed.

So Trump's candidacy was as much a condition for the GOP's situation in 2015-16 as his own unique nature. No other party would have been transformed that way by such a candidate.

The Democratic party has won popular votes consistently for the last 20 years -- Gore, Obama, HRC, Biden -- so it doesn't have problems of fielding national level candidates the way GOP does. So there's not really much need for an outsider without political backgrounds to find purchase there.

[Tendrin]

https://twitter.com/andre_banks/stat...50403093639168

BREAKING via
@Catalist_US
: Black voters surged to close the gap and repudiate Trump in MI, WI, GA + nationally.

This story isn’t winning back “white working class” it's Black voters matter.

GA: 720K in 2016 and 1.2M in 2020
MI: 94K in 2016 and 389K in 2020

https://twitter.com/andre_banks/stat...50403093639168

So, like I said. I don't want to hear about Trump's 'gains with black men'.

[Malvolio]

Good to see that this guy has learned the error of his ways...

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/...l-defense-fund

Does Miss Lindsey think such donations can be used as tax write-offs?

[Username taken]

https://twitter.com/andre_banks/stat...50403093639168



https://twitter.com/andre_banks/stat...50403093639168

So, like I said. I don't want to hear about Trump's 'gains with black men'.

Yeah, I think the early handwringing (which i was a little bit guilty of) was uncalled for.

Black people still came out massively for Biden. In fact, the likely reason Georgia is in play now is because of the black vote there (God bless Stacy Abrams).