All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[G. Boney]

This perfectly sums up how I feel about this election.

We Were Wrong About America

"We"? HAHAHAHA!!

Me:

[PaulBullion]

Indeed, I'm aware of this but as I wrote that's only a small part of my methodology. After the election, I'll be more willing to share.

Don't know about the others, but I would love for you to share.

[Mister Mets]

No they aren't favored, not inherently. 22 GOP Senate Seats and 10 Democrat Seats are in play in 2022. 2024 is even more open. Their senate margin is narrower than before.

GOP have gotten an extension that's all. But they are back to the precarious position they've been, a minority oligarchy pushing a policy deeply unrepresentative and unpopular across the board, kept apace by gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Sure GOP redistricting will commence but it won't go the way it did in 2010. Many states they redistricted pushed for and got fair allocation of districting.



The GOP are always in a state of panic, they just put a mask hiding it it's all. If you didn't panic, you wouldn't have Trump as a nominee. You wouldn't have backed a one-term loser who lost the popular vote both times by whopping big margins.



To everyone else:

The GOP, make no mistake is a deeply vulnerable party. Do not be fooled by their turnout this year. That was down entirely to Ginsburg's death. McConnell's not some genius, just a cunning old buzzard. He made a smart play by pushing SCOTUS over Stimulus, but he also lost AZ. He was the one in 2018 who insisted the Governor put McSally to take McCain's seat after she lost an election to Sinema. Then McSally decided to contest the election rather than accept being a placeholder, and now an astronaut has taken McCain's seat.

This is just my political analysis. Take it with a grain of salt.

The election went pretty well compared to what was expected. It was supposed to be a blowout Trump loss, with Democrats gaining multiple Senate seats, building on the House, and flipping a few state legislatures. And if the polls had been off in the other direction, it could've been even bigger for Democrats.

Instead, Republicans keep the majority, and Democrats have a narrower majority in the House. Crucially, Democrats will not have a period of unified control of the White House and both branches of Congress

Midterms historically favor the party out of the White House, so Republicans stand to have a good 2022. Republican voters are also more likely to turn out for midterms. I do think Republicans will be favored to take the House, just as they did in 1994 and 2010 (and Democrats did in 2006 and 2018.) As for the Senate, there aren't that many obvious pickup opportunities for Democrats, since every Republican Senator elected in 2016 won in a state Trump also won. Republicans will have pickup opportunities in New Hampshire, Nevada (which Trump seems to have lost quite narrowly) and Arizona. The best chances for Democrats would be the open elections in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as well as a potential swing state retirement in Iowa. There's no Republican seat as friendly to Democrats as Indiana, Florida, Missouri and North Dakota were to Republicans in 2018.

I have consistently argued that gerrymandering is exaggerated as a source for Republican power, and agree with the political scientists who think it really added only a handful of congressional seats. However, Democratic party losses do that mean that party won't be able to gerrymander (due to geographic sorting, Democrats need gerrymandering just to offset the advantage Republicans have from standard population distributions.)

My point about panic was more about whether Republicans in general will win. It's worth noting that in 2016, a majority of primary voters went for someone other than Trump. But the main arguments about Trump were about how he would be different from typical politicians, not that he was more electable than Marco Rubio or John Kasich.

Obviously, things could go badly for the party in future elections, leading to blowout losses and an extended period in the wilderness. But it didn't happen this time. And it's not certain it'll happen any time soon.

[babyblob]

Quote Originally Posted by Celgress
Indeed, I'm aware of this but as I wrote that's only a small part of my methodology. After the election, I'll be more willing to share.

I think this is the guy a lot of people want to hear from.

On a more fun note. Where do you think they are going to build the Trump Presidential Library

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Where do you think they are going to build the Trump Presidential Library

Somewhere in Florida, maybe Mar-A-Lago.

[Mister Mets]

One thing I will say is the Lincoln Project was a complete failure. Trump did better in Republican turnout and the Congressional Republicans over performed.

So the myth of the moderate Republican who will see reason is still a unicorn that nobody has ever actually seen

Stealing this from elsewhere, but the Lincoln Project has taken a lot of Democratic money to Maserati dealerships.

I'm really interested in how her career progresses. In the short term I'd like to see her chair the DNC.

I don't think it's a bad idea to have Stacey Abrama as DNC chair. She doesn't really have the resume for a cabinet post, and is too high profile for some kind of sub-cabinet post.

I dont know why Republicans see this as a win for the GOp. yes they gain a few seats in the House but not enough to make a difference while their lead in the Senate has shrunk. Trump lost to what he and the GOP were calling a very weak Biden. He is going to lose the Popular this year by more then he did in 2016. And this EC close call? not going to happen. When Biden takes Nevada, PA, and Georgia he will win by a score of 306 to I think 232 if Trump takes NC. That is not that close at all. (My math may be off by a couple votes) TThat is if everything hold the way it is now.

As for 2022 even long time GOP talking heads and some on Fox are worried about it. But it is a long way off so I wont say yet.

So yes The GOP is in trouble.

Edit to fix my EC vote count after doing some looking.

To be fair, many Republicans will see this as a loss because they like Trump. But for the short-term, this isn't a terrible outcome. Biden's ability to pass progressive legislation is limited. A smaller Democratic house means a Republican takeover is likelier, and I suspect the recognition of that is going to spur some retirements in the coming year. It gets tougher for Democrats to flip the Senate.

As for the electoral college, we've learned that Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada are very much in play, and that Florida is a more conservative compared to the rest of the nation than we thought it was.

Democrats really need to treat the runoffs in Georgia like it’s a Presidential election and have Biden, Obama and everyone down there

It's a long shot but probably a risk worth taking.

[Mecegirl]

Somewhere in Florida, maybe Mar-A-Lago.

Do presidential libraries charge for admission? If not I'd bet his would be a first to do so.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

This is just my political analysis. Take it with a grain of salt.

Done.

And if the polls had been off in the other direction, it could've been even bigger for Democrats.

The polls not going 100% the Democrats' way does not mean the GOP is vindicated or that their party position is strong, unchallengable, and lasting or without any vulnerabilities. But that's a fair bit away.

[Tami]

On a more fun note. Where do you think they are going to build the Trump Presidential Library

Oh there may be some talk about it, but year after year nothing will be done. Some will try to raise money for one, but either a lack of interest or corruption will undermine any attempts.

After a while people will move on and forget about this. He will end up being the first president since the concept of a Presidential Library was created to actually not have one.

Most of Trumps documents will be stored in the national archives, those not used as part of criminal investigations. Assuming that Trump doesn't tryt o destroy them.

And lets nbe honest, Trump is probaby the first president who has never stepped foot in a library, at least not unless he was forced to. He hates reading, he hates books, he has no interest in any of that.

Though somewhere in a very, very red part of the country, someone will find a barn or an empty building and fill it with Trump paraphernalia and label it as the Trump Library and Museum.

[Amadeus Arkham]

Dude 8 months is long, 4 years is longer than that. Who knows how things will be then?

Biden is pretty healthy, exercises and he's gonna get the best medical treatment in the planet at the Oval Office (those doctors saved Trump, an extremely unhealthy man, from COVID-19, Biden's a cakewalk).

Yeah, sorry dude I just don’t buy Biden will seek re-election in 2024 as an 81 year man, and personally I wouldn’t want him to run again. It’s become clear his cognitive functions had waned with age so just think about how much it’ll likely exacerbate when he gets older. And I much prefer a younger candidate who can instill some excitement and energy in the base.

[obatalla]

He's refusing to concede. So looks like Biden will have to get him and his family escorted out of HIS HOUSE now.

The problem is trump has 10 weeks as the president to cause absolute chaos in America.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Yeah, sorry dude I just don’t buy Biden will seek re-election in 2024 as an 81 year man, and personally I wouldn’t want him to run again.

My point is it's way too early to start thinking about 2024 or know how it's going to be.

It’s become clear his cognitive functions had waned with age,

Where's the evidence for this? What is your medical qualifications to make this assessment? Are you Biden's physician or a professional at a hospital to make this call?

...just think about how much it’ll likely exacerbate when he gets older.

This sounds like ageism pure and simple. I am sorry. It is very cruel and insulting, and worthy of 45. It is disgraceful.

I much prefer a younger candidate who can instill some excitement and energy into the base.

If that's the case how is that youth voters went for Bernie Sanders over Pete Buttigieg? How is that youth voters in Boston voted to send Ed Markey to the Senate rather than the young Kennedy sprog?

The whole "we are not a monolith" applies to age too. It's not a given that youth voters will flock to a candidate their age even within the Progressive wing. It's not a given this will be an actual election issue.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

So had a Trump supporter tell me nothing was called and PA isn't done counting. "God has this..." So i told them who has confirmed it from Rush Limbaugh to Nate Silver. They showed me a newsmax map .

[Rob Allen]

They won't have to drag Trump out of the White House. Conmen are pragmatic. Once he sees that this con has run its course, his focus will shift to getting away to a safe place with the money. He'll flee the country, or try to.

[BeastieRunner]

So had a Trump supporter tell me nothing was called and PA isn't done counting. "God has this..." So i told them who has confirmed it from Rush Limbaugh to Nate Silver. They showed me a newsmax map .

Show them the green map.