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This is just my political analysis. Take it with a grain of salt.
The election went pretty well compared to what was expected. It was supposed to be a blowout Trump loss, with Democrats gaining multiple Senate seats, building on the House, and flipping a few state legislatures. And if the polls had been off in the other direction, it could've been even bigger for Democrats.
Instead, Republicans keep the majority, and Democrats have a narrower majority in the House. Crucially, Democrats will not have a period of unified control of the White House and both branches of Congress
Midterms historically favor the party out of the White House, so Republicans stand to have a good 2022. Republican voters are also more likely to turn out for midterms. I do think Republicans will be favored to take the House, just as they did in 1994 and 2010 (and Democrats did in 2006 and 2018.) As for the Senate, there aren't that many obvious pickup opportunities for Democrats, since every Republican Senator elected in 2016 won in a state Trump also won. Republicans will have pickup opportunities in New Hampshire, Nevada (which Trump seems to have lost quite narrowly) and Arizona. The best chances for Democrats would be the open elections in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as well as a potential swing state retirement in Iowa. There's no Republican seat as friendly to Democrats as Indiana, Florida, Missouri and North Dakota were to Republicans in 2018.
I have consistently argued that gerrymandering is exaggerated as a source for Republican power, and agree with the political scientists who think it really added only a handful of congressional seats. However, Democratic party losses do that mean that party won't be able to gerrymander (due to geographic sorting, Democrats need gerrymandering just to offset the advantage Republicans have from standard population distributions.)
My point about panic was more about whether Republicans in general will win. It's worth noting that in 2016, a majority of primary voters went for someone other than Trump. But the main arguments about Trump were about how he would be different from typical politicians, not that he was more electable than Marco Rubio or John Kasich.
Obviously, things could go badly for the party in future elections, leading to blowout losses and an extended period in the wilderness. But it didn't happen this time. And it's not certain it'll happen any time soon.
Sincerely,
Thomas Mets
Quote Originally Posted by Celgress
Indeed, I'm aware of this but as I wrote that's only a small part of my methodology. After the election, I'll be more willing to share.
I think this is the guy a lot of people want to hear from.
On a more fun note. Where do you think they are going to build the Trump Presidential Library
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Stealing this from elsewhere, but the Lincoln Project has taken a lot of Democratic money to Maserati dealerships.
I don't think it's a bad idea to have Stacey Abrama as DNC chair. She doesn't really have the resume for a cabinet post, and is too high profile for some kind of sub-cabinet post.
To be fair, many Republicans will see this as a loss because they like Trump. But for the short-term, this isn't a terrible outcome. Biden's ability to pass progressive legislation is limited. A smaller Democratic house means a Republican takeover is likelier, and I suspect the recognition of that is going to spur some retirements in the coming year. It gets tougher for Democrats to flip the Senate.
As for the electoral college, we've learned that Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada are very much in play, and that Florida is a more conservative compared to the rest of the nation than we thought it was.
It's a long shot but probably a risk worth taking.
Sincerely,
Thomas Mets
Done.
The polls not going 100% the Democrats' way does not mean the GOP is vindicated or that their party position is strong, unchallengable, and lasting or without any vulnerabilities. But that's a fair bit away.And if the polls had been off in the other direction, it could've been even bigger for Democrats.
Oh there may be some talk about it, but year after year nothing will be done. Some will try to raise money for one, but either a lack of interest or corruption will undermine any attempts.
After a while people will move on and forget about this. He will end up being the first president since the concept of a Presidential Library was created to actually not have one.
Most of Trumps documents will be stored in the national archives, those not used as part of criminal investigations. Assuming that Trump doesn't tryt o destroy them.
And lets nbe honest, Trump is probaby the first president who has never stepped foot in a library, at least not unless he was forced to. He hates reading, he hates books, he has no interest in any of that.
Though somewhere in a very, very red part of the country, someone will find a barn or an empty building and fill it with Trump paraphernalia and label it as the Trump Library and Museum.
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Yeah, sorry dude I just don’t buy Biden will seek re-election in 2024 as an 81 year man, and personally I wouldn’t want him to run again. It’s become clear his cognitive functions had waned with age so just think about how much it’ll likely exacerbate when he gets older. And I much prefer a younger candidate who can instill some excitement and energy in the base.
Last edited by Amadeus Arkham; 11-06-2020 at 04:49 PM.
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My point is it's way too early to start thinking about 2024 or know how it's going to be.
Where's the evidence for this? What is your medical qualifications to make this assessment? Are you Biden's physician or a professional at a hospital to make this call?It’s become clear his cognitive functions had waned with age,
This sounds like ageism pure and simple. I am sorry. It is very cruel and insulting, and worthy of 45. It is disgraceful....just think about how much it’ll likely exacerbate when he gets older.
If that's the case how is that youth voters went for Bernie Sanders over Pete Buttigieg? How is that youth voters in Boston voted to send Ed Markey to the Senate rather than the young Kennedy sprog?I much prefer a younger candidate who can instill some excitement and energy into the base.
The whole "we are not a monolith" applies to age too. It's not a given that youth voters will flock to a candidate their age even within the Progressive wing. It's not a given this will be an actual election issue.
So had a Trump supporter tell me nothing was called and PA isn't done counting. "God has this..." So i told them who has confirmed it from Rush Limbaugh to Nate Silver. They showed me a newsmax map .
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They won't have to drag Trump out of the White House. Conmen are pragmatic. Once he sees that this con has run its course, his focus will shift to getting away to a safe place with the money. He'll flee the country, or try to.
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