All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Revolutionary_Jack]

In all the news hoopla some stuff went under the radar. Apparently there's been a knife fight between Dems who lost the House and Dems who retained seats.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/u...on-losses.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/u...gressives.html

The short of it is that House Dems who lost say association with AOC cost them their votes, and she's being made the scapegoat for this...which is an example of the same "morality play logic" I've been going on and on about. Though obviously in this case it's candidates personal bitterness coloring their logic.

-- I think AOC has the right of it:

These folks are pointing toward Republican messaging that they feel killed them, right? But why were you so vulnerable to that attack?

If you’re not door-knocking, if you’re not on the internet, if your main points of reliance are TV and mail, then you’re not running a campaign on all cylinders. I just don’t see how anyone could be making ideological claims when they didn’t run a full-fledged campaign.

Our party isn’t even online, not in a real way that exhibits competence. And so, yeah, they were vulnerable to these messages, because they weren’t even on the mediums where these messages were most potent. Sure, you can point to the message, but they were also sitting ducks. They were sitting ducks.

There’s a reason Barack Obama built an entire national campaign apparatus outside of the Democratic National Committee. And there’s a reason that when he didn’t activate or continue that, we lost House majorities. Because the party — in and of itself — does not have the core competencies, and no amount of money is going to fix that.

If I lost my election, and I went out and I said: “This is moderates’ fault. This is because you didn’t let us have a floor vote on Medicare for all.” And they opened the hood on my campaign, and they found that I only spent $5,000 on TV ads the week before the election? They would laugh. And that’s what they look like right now trying to blame the Movement for Black Lives for their loss.
---
There’s a lot of magical thinking in Washington, that this is just about special people that kind of come down from on high. Year after year, we decline the idea that they did work and ran sophisticated operations in favor of the idea that they are magical, special people. I need people to take these goggles off and realize how we can do things better.

If you are the D.C.C.C., and you’re hemorrhaging incumbent candidates to progressive insurgents, you would think that you may want to use some of those firms. But instead, we banned them. So the D.C.C.C. banned every single firm that is the best in the country at digital organizing.

So that's what cost the Dems the 2018 Midterm Red Districts...they dropped the ball on incompetence and where Biden and others adapted to an online zoom campaign well, the traditional House Dems used to traditional campaigning failed.

Maybe we should get Stacey Abrams to run the entire Democrat Party.

[PwrdOn]

People largely ignore or want to ignore the entire existence of anyone from Generation X. It was dismissed as a failed generation to the point nobody even argues about them in debates.

It's well deserved though, Gen X'ers largely spent their younger years acting as if they had invented the idea of youthful rebellion, and then as adults managed to crash the entire global economy.

[Amadeus Arkham]

KARMA: @HillaryClinton is one of New York’s electors for the Electoral College this year — that means she will get to cast one of the official votes removing Trump from power this December.

[Tami]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: ‘I Don’t Even Know if I Want to Be in Politics’

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) isn’t sure if she still wants to “be in politics” anymore. In an interview with The New York Times published Saturday, the congresswoman, arguably one of the highest-profile figure of the left right now, expressed frustration with the “smothering approach” she said she was experiencing from within her own party. “The last two years have been pretty hostile. Externally, we’ve been winning. Externally, there’s been a ton of support, but internally, it’s been extremely hostile to anything that even smells progressive,”

She has a lot to learn, assuming she is willing to do so.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Honestly that's just an example of too small a sample size. Despite Trump's impeachment he had the second most votes of all time in an election, did better with Republicans and did better than any Republican since the 1960's in the minority vote.

Again, Pandemic turnout. More people were on foot to trot to elections because they've been working from home, they've been furloughed, they've been unemployed. That doesn't mean that the Republicans minority share has increased. It means that the sections of minorities who lean Republican or right-wing had free time this year to make their voices heard. I swear I am not ready for "Hispanic Hilbilly Elegy" and how the Dems failed them. Granted the Hispanics were failed by the Dems in a lot of ways, but it's ridiculous to presume they have to appeal to the most conservative sections of a community rather than the overwhelming majority that turned out on election day to vote Blue and which actually did matter in Arizona and Nevada. The majority of Hispanics and African-Americans went Blue on ED, and they helped flip two red states and against the maximized GOP voter base.

If you go simply off the data

Which you shouldn't. The date always needs to be qualified and measured against attenuating factors. Joe Biden won more votes in Texas than Trump did in 2016. Trump 2016 carried the state based on the turnout then. Had Biden gone against the same turnout he'd have won TX and FL easily.

I think 30 said it, but if you look up the old 2016 map the decisive states were still Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Even keeping Georgia and Arizona, those three states going Trump give him the election. Those were essentially coinflips in 2020 and it was largely white working class Obama voters that defected to Trump.

Yes the fabled "hillbilly elegy"...real scary.

Here's what actually happened.
1) Those three states were severely gerrymandered by the famous Ratf--king gerrymandering operation of 2010 Redistricting. Those efforts were undone by the time of 2020 (and they will be out of play for the Republican State Legislatures in the next decade...so Ratf--king II isn't going to be a bonanza for them again).

2) HRC failed to do enough to reach African-American voters in those Rust Belt states. She never visited UAW-Halls once. That's a union with a majority African-American employee base.

3) Many Dem voters assumed that since it was a safe blue state historically, they didn't have to vote and besides Trump would obviously lose. They fell in a "swing states only" matter mentality and failed to realize that it was them.

In other words, the Rust Belt states were never actual swing states. It was a Red Mirage. The full Dem base in these states crushed the Trump voters in 2020. The number of voters who went Obama and then went back to Trump, they wouldn't have been at play had HRC's campaign not made this fatal misstep and neglected campaigning in these states in the final weeks of her campaign.

So the election was really decided off the one demographic Trump did worse in going back to the Vice President of the former President they supported in states that were already razor thin before anyways.

The election was decided by black voters turning up in full, with gerrymandering laws overturned. Detroit went 94% Biden, 94% Biden. Stacey Abrams delivered GA to Biden.

Biden himself thankfully in his victory speech said, "Every time I was down the African-American community had. my. back" (pounding his desk) admitting who he owes his hide to.

Most polling data...

Jameson laugh.jpg

As far as the House goes, I think it's pretty blatent that 2018 was the real backlash to Trump and alot of those candidates that won just weren't that good if you had turnout.

This I totally agree. If the Stimulus passed, that would have carried even them but McConnell blocking them finished them.

Also Pelosi made a huge calculation era with the stimulus. She didn't come off well.

McConnell was only going to allow the stimulus on conditions like immunity for Trump officials, tax cuts for corporations and other stuff. For Pelosi the choice was between accepting that and getting the House to lose some members or taking it and losing a bigger blow in 2022. It wasn't an easy gamble or an easy choice.

But the short of it is that yes Pelosi turning down that stimulus probably did make the moderates of 2018 vulnerable, and she was undoubtedly aware of that. But it was a gamble she took, and now she's going to have to find a way to land on her feet (which given who she is, she definitely will).

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: ‘I Don’t Even Know if I Want to Be in Politics’



She has a lot to learn, assuming she is willing to do so.

Did you read the entire article? She is being blamed by Moderates and even John Kasich for the House losses. She points out the absurdity of Progressives holding their seats being assailed by Moderates who failed, and by John Kasich who failed to deliver Ohio. It's part of the same morality play logic I've been decrying.

She repeatedly offered the House candidates help and all of them except a few accepted. The ones who accepted made it. Most of the ones who rejected lost. They ran a pretty incompetent campaign spending little on FB ads or appreciating how online stuff worked.

[numberthirty]

So here in Illinois, the "Old Time Radio..." show that was on WGN(up until they cancelled it earlier this year...) is now airing in a similar syndicated show that runs on one of the "Kook Right Wing..." AM stations from about eight until midnight. Without noticing that it was well after midnight, I went to turn it on.

If whoever the host is on the show airing right now is to be believed, FNC pulled Jeanine Pirro's show for tonight based on that it was going to go to bat for Trump on the "Stolen Election..." front.

No telling how true that is or is not.

[numberthirty]

...

Yes the fabled "hillbilly elegy"...real scary.

Here's what actually happened.
1) Those three states were severely gerrymandered by the famous Ratf--king gerrymandering operation of 2010 Redistricting. Those efforts were undone by the time of 2020 (and they will be out of play for the Republican State Legislatures in the next decade...so Ratf--king II isn't going to be a bonanza for them again).

2) HRC failed to do enough to reach African-American voters in those Rust Belt states. She never visited UAW-Halls once. That's a union with a majority African-American employee base.

3) Many Dem voters assumed that since it was a safe blue state historically, they didn't have to vote and besides Trump would obviously lose. They fell in a "swing states only" matter mentality and failed to realize that it was them.

In other words, the Rust Belt states were never actual swing states. It was a Red Mirage. The full Dem base in these states crushed the Trump voters in 2020. The number of voters who went Obama and then went back to Trump, they wouldn't have been at play had HRC's campaign not made this fatal misstep and neglected campaigning in these states in the final weeks of her campaign.

...

Uh...

Nothing that is even remotely like that happened in Wisconsin.

While I'm not usually one to go to bat for HRC, you need to take a second look at the actual numbers.

[KCJ506]

You think Trump will try to run again in 2024? So far the only president to do that after losing the reelection was Grover Cleveland over 120 years ago. Then again, Cleveland probably didn't have any legal issues like Trump does.

People largely ignore or want to ignore the entire existence of anyone from Generation X. It was dismissed as a failed generation to the point nobody even argues about them in debates.

Hell some people don't even know how to differentiate Gen X from Millennials.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...undoing-434716

I don't like Politico, but this article is interesting. One thing about the Pandemic affecting turnout is this factoid.
-- "Exit polls showed that more than 70 percent of voters decided on whom to vote for before September."

So the Mail-in Ballots and Early Voting advantages for Trump to overcome was decided by the coronavirus handling.

You think Trump will try to run again in 2024? So far the only president to do that after losing the reelection was Grover Cleveland over 120 years ago. Then again, Cleveland probably didn't have any legal issues like Trump does.

Cleveland didn't have term limits either. Trump in 2024 will offer just another 4-year term. Why choose that when you can invest in someone who can hold the WH for 8 years?

So yeah this is the end of Donald Trump's political career.

[PwrdOn]

Did you read the entire article? She is being blamed by Moderates and even John Kasich for the House losses. She points out the absurdity of Progressives holding their seats being assailed by Moderates who failed, and by John Kasich who failed to deliver Ohio. It's part of the same morality play logic I've been decrying.

She repeatedly offered the House candidates help and all of them except a few accepted. The ones who accepted made it. Most of the ones who rejected lost. They ran a pretty incompetent campaign spending little on FB ads or appreciating how online stuff worked.

This is all too predictable though, moderates were always going to take all of the credit if Democrats won the election, and lay all the blame on progressives if they lost. And because this time around they won the presidency but under performed in the congressional races, they're actually doing both simultaneously. It's really just condescending as hell that the party still treats AOC as some kind of immature young brat whose ideas are born out of naive idealism, when at 31 she's older than a lot of people are when they enter Congress, including Joe Biden who became a senator (!) at 30, and whatever you think about millennial man-children who refuse to grow up, AOC certainly isn't one of them, and the policies she advocates for are really just the standard social democratic platform that has succeeded all across the rest of the developed world. Indeed, it's the old farts in the Democratic establishment who show their simplistic mode of thinking when they assume the only reason that AOC is popular is because she's young and attractive, and keep trying to find someone of that profile who will just repeat centrist talking points and acting all surprised when that doesn't draw any support.

[Joker]

She has a lot to learn, assuming she is willing to do so.

Can I ask you to elaborate here?

I ask, because I read the NY Times piece, and it's clear that the DNC are the ones who have a lot to learn. Sadly, they've made it clear they're not willing to do so. And they'll keep losing for it. And we'll keep being tired of their losing ****. And we'll call them out for it. And we'll get told it's Republicans fault. And it's rigged. And we shouldn't blame the Democrats. And Republicans never get called losers for losing.

Some of us on the left want fucking progress. Not moderation. Not centrism. If progress is scary for you, go be a goddamn republican or just get out of the way.

[Username taken]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: ‘I Don’t Even Know if I Want to Be in Politics’



She has a lot to learn, assuming she is willing to do so.

She made a lot of valid points though.

Particularly in the digital space, the Democrats have been completed swamped by Republicans. It's something that some of here have even pointed out.

This is just one thing amongst many that Democrats need to re-examine going forward.

[numberthirty]

Can I ask you to elaborate here?

I ask, because I read the NY Times piece, and it's clear that the DNC are the ones who have a lot to learn. Sadly, they've made it clear they're not willing to do so. And they'll keep losing for it. And we'll keep being tired of their losing ****. And we'll call them out for it. And we'll get told it's Republicans fault. And it's rigged. And we shouldn't blame the Democrats. And Republicans never get called losers for losing.

Some of us on the left want fucking progress. Not moderation. Not centrism. If progress is scary for you, go be a goddamn republican or just get out of the way.

Past that...

Who has the actual record of losing seats in the House?

AOC or current Democratic leadership?

[numberthirty]

In addition PwrdOn has pointed out that if you give folks the choice between a "Business As Usual..." Dem who is trying to appeal to Republicans or an actual Republican, they'll just pass on the garbage and vote for the Republican.

Democrats seriously need to process that reality.