All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Top Republicans don't actually believe the vote was subject to fraud but are pretending to for political expediency. They fear that saying Biden won will alienate Trump's base ahead of critical GA elections and cost GOP their Senate majority.

Knew as much.

This also proves that the GOP are pretty vulnerable in GA for them to resort to something as extreme as this.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

But Pelosi is never gonna leave. She wants the power just like all top politicians. The fact that she's an albatross to the party doesn't matter to her, especially given how useless she has been since taking over as house speaker.

The issue with Pelosi is that she's good at getting votes in the House. The problem with Pelosi is that she's ineffective at messaging. She's got checkmated multiple times on stimulus negotiations since the Covid crisis started and they were blatantly obvious traps. So she basically negotiated the farm away the first time because she could get attacked for forcing pet projects in, and the second time she went on her stupid rant on Wolf Blitzer which lost her any high ground.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Knew as much.

This also proves that the GOP are pretty vulnerable in GA for them to resort to something as extreme as this.

It also shows what a lot of us felt from the election results..... Trump having a strong turnout and over peforming in key demographics scares everyone.... Republicans can't abandon him because of his base and the party as a whole thinks Trumpism is still a strategy to win off of.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

It also shows what a lot of us felt from the election results..... Trump having a strong turnout and over peforming in key demographics scares everyone.... Republicans can't abandon him because of his base and the party as a whole thinks Trumpism is still a strategy to win off of.

To me that's signs of vulnerability not strength, desperation not tenacity. The Republicans are in siege mentality having far more Democrats and Blue Voters in Red States than Red voters in Blue States. Democrat candidates can run Lindsay Graham and Ted Cruz on margins no Republican candidate can score in CA and NYS. Lindsay Graham has to go begging on Fox News to even make it.

These people are desperadoes in a fortress, not in any sense a viable thriving party.

[The no face guy]

David Leonhart of the New York Times considers how important it was for the Democrats to nominate Joe Biden, who has outperformed candidates for the US House by 2.3 points. If Biden did one point worse across the board, current numbers suggest he'd lose Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which would be enough to give Trump a second term.



There was a decent point that Biden was able to appeal to two crucial constituencies. He could outperform the left-wing candidates (Warren, Sanders) among moderates, and outperform the other moderate candidates (Buttigieg, Klobuchar) among African Americans.

The record high turn out rates in 2020 don't leave a lot of room for speculation do they....as both sides seemed to have fully mobilized their base, it would appear that swing voters may have determined the election.

That being said, I would like to see the data that comes out of Arizona and Georgia.

Did Trump lose those states primarily because of moderate swing voters, or did he lose it because Democrats were able to substantially get a new demographic mobilized to vote. The latter would suggest, an eventual long cold winter for the Republican Party.

All and all I think this election was a referendum on the President, and desire to return to a sense of normalcy.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

The record high turn out rates in 2020 don't leave a lot of room for speculation do they....as both sides seemed to have fully mobilized their base, it would appear that swing voters may have determined the election.

Nope. Swing voters weren't a factor this year at all. It was a simple electoral gang war where the Dems and GOP mobilized their base head-to-head for a mega rumble, and the Dem base beat them in the knife fight.

In the so-called rust-Belt, Trump won those three states (WI, MI, PA) by a margin of some 80,000 votes in 2016. In 2020, Biden won those states back with a margin of (at present and still counting),
Wisconsin - 20,539
Michigan - 136,000 or so
Pennsylvania - 45,000 or so.

Combine that and it's a margin of about 200,000 votes more than Trump, double the margin from 2016, and probably gonna be a bit higher before it's over. People who say the Rust Belt is a swing state are deluding themselves. Because these numbers prove 2016 was a fluke.

Did Trump lose those states primarily because of moderate swing voters, or did he lose it because Democrats were able to substantially get a new demographic mobilized to vote. The latter would suggest, an eventual long cold winter for the Republican Party.

In the case of Arizona, Biden won thanks to grass-roots activists who mobilized the base, a growing number of Hispanics in the population (and yeah, Biden actually did far better with Hispanics than the early story had you believe), as well as transplants from CA fleeing gentrification, this has helped turned AZ blue. Likewise, Native American voters came out substantially for Biden in Arizona, voting 97% for him, 97%. The Coronavirus mobilized Native Americans against Trump that's for sure. At the same time, Trump made substantial mistakes with AZ GOP, he insulted the memory of John McCain to the extent that his widow not only endorsed Joe Biden but also the Democrat Party of AZ as a whole. Trump also didn't make enough campaign stops in the state. So honestly, it's a wash...Arizona does have potential to be consolidated into blue, going forward.

In the case of Georgia, the answer is Stacey Abrams, Stacey Abrams, and did I mention Stacey Abrams. She and the activism surrounding her, registered a huge chunk of votes, and increased the turnout and that helped her flip the state electorally.

All and all I think this election was a referendum on the President, and desire to return to a sense of normalcy.

The desire for normalcy doesn't reflect the considerable left wing gains made in this election.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/11/d...ection-day-dsa

And the fact that Moderate Dems did far worse than Progressives even in Swing Elections.

[The no face guy]

Nope. Swing voters weren't a factor this year at all. It was a simple electoral gang war where the Dems and GOP mobilized their base head-to-head for a mega rumble, and the Dem base beat them in the knife fight.

In the so-called rust-Belt, Trump won those three states (WI, MI, PA) by a margin of some 80,000 votes in 2016. In 2020, Biden won those states back with a margin of (at present and still counting),
Wisconsin - 20,539
Michigan - 136,000 or so
Pennsylvania - 45,000 or so.

Combine that and it's a margin of about 200,000 votes more than Trump, double the margin from 2016, and probably gonna be a bit higher before it's over. People who say the Rust Belt is a swing state are deluding themselves. Because these numbers prove 2016 was a fluke.



In the case of Arizona, Biden won thanks to grass-roots activists who mobilized the base, a growing number of Hispanics in the population (and yeah, Biden actually did far better with Hispanics than the early story had you believe), as well as transplants from CA fleeing gentrification, this has helped turned AZ blue. Likewise, Native American voters came out substantially for Biden in Arizona, voting 97% for him, 97%. The Coronavirus mobilized Native Americans against Trump that's for sure. At the same time, Trump made substantial mistakes with AZ GOP, he insulted the memory of John McCain to the extent that his widow not only endorsed Joe Biden but also the Democrat Party of AZ as a whole. Trump also didn't make enough campaign stops in the state. So honestly, it's a wash...Arizona does have potential to be consolidated into blue, going forward.

In the case of Georgia, the answer is Stacey Abrams, Stacey Abrams, and did I mention Stacey Abrams. She and the activism surrounding her, registered a huge chunk of votes, and increased the turnout and that helped her flip the state electorally.



The desire for normalcy doesn't reflect the considerable left wing gains made in this election.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/11/d...ection-day-dsa

And the fact that Moderate Dems did far worse than Progressives even in Swing Elections.

He RJ I appreciate that you are a passionate lefty, and I respect that, but I'll wait for electoral data to officially come in, I'm not interested in revisiting a center left, hard left debate, so I'll let Mister Mets respond if he so chooses, cheers.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

He RJ I appreciate that you are a passionate lefty, and I respect that, but I'll wait for electoral data to officially come in,...

What I am telling you is in fact the latest election data the one that probably isn't likely to change substantially. Maybe some details here and there but this is pretty much what the shape of the final analysis is gonna be.

...I'm not interested in revisiting a center left, hard left debate...

That's fine, but when you make assumptions about swing voters and seeing it as a return for normalcy when substantial data and evidence points otherwise, then it's my mandate to challenge those assumptions because that is not at all supportable from what we are seeing.

[numberthirty]

Nope. Swing voters weren't a factor this year at all. It was a simple electoral gang war where the Dems and GOP mobilized their base head-to-head for a mega rumble, and the Dem base beat them in the knife fight.

In the so-called rust-Belt, Trump won those three states (WI, MI, PA) by a margin of some 80,000 votes in 2016. In 2020, Biden won those states back with a margin of (at present and still counting),
Wisconsin - 20,539
Michigan - 136,000 or so
Pennsylvania - 45,000 or so.

Combine that and it's a margin of about 200,000 votes more than Trump, double the margin from 2016, and probably gonna be a bit higher before it's over. People who say the Rust Belt is a swing state are deluding themselves. Because these numbers prove 2016 was a fluke.

...

While someone can try to make this assertion, the actual history says otherwise. Wisconsin has absolutely been that tight before.

2000/2004 look quite a bit like 2016.

The idea that it was some oddity just is not there in the actual numbers. Former President Obama is the only time, since 2000, that Wisconsin hasn't really been a coin flip.

It is a swing state.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

While someone can try to make this assertion, the actual history says otherwise. Wisconsin has absolutely been that tight before.

2000/2004 look quite a bit like 2016.

The idea that it was some oddity just is not there in the actual numbers. Former President Obama is the only time, since 2000, that Wisconsin hasn't really been a coin flip.

It is a swing state.

So Obama and Obama-adjacent can bank on WI to turnout for them, but that's not transferable to other Dems?

[The no face guy]

What I am telling you is in fact the latest election data the one that probably isn't likely to change substantially. Maybe some details here and there but this is pretty much what the shape of the final analysis is gonna be.



That's fine, but when you make assumptions about swing voters and seeing it as a return for normalcy when substantial data and evidence points otherwise, then it's my mandate to challenge those assumptions because that is not at all supportable from what we are seeing.

That's fine but I was addressing someone specifically with an inquiry, not making a grand declaration for the whole forum.

There is a lot of speculative data out there, but it is far to early for organizations like Pew Research to give us a hard data breakdown.

[numberthirty]

So Obama and Obama-adjacent can bank on WI to turnout for them, but that's not transferable to other Dems?

Politely, has anyone actually said anything like that?

Since the year 2000, the only time Wisconsin was not a coin flip would have been the two times former President Obama was at the top of the ticket.

Otherwise?

Republicans were absolutely within a distance where they could have won it, and one did.

It's not about the Democrats. It's about the illusion that there is not enough Republican support in the state to make it a swing state.

[BeastieRunner]

Barr's people are quitting when being asked to investigate the unfounded voting fraud.

DOJ's top election crimes prosecutor quits in protest after Barr tells federal attorneys to probe unsupported allegations of voting irregularities.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

https://prospect.org/politics/donna-...-of-passivity/

More and more information about the epic screwups in the House.

Gotta say, some of these candidates, like Donna Shalala outright deserve to lose.

[Robotman]

According to the NYT, Trump Plans to create a PAC in Hopes of Keeping Hold on G.O.P.

The PAC could accept donations from an unlimited number of people and spend to benefit other candidates, allowing the president to retain influence in a party remade largely in his image. And I’m sure he’ll pocket a large chunk of the cash.

So he’s going to make sure the GOP remains the part of Trump for a long time.