All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Revolutionary_Jack]

I'd love to be proven wrong on that. Independent data analysis on it won't be available for quite a while. I applaud you for bringing in sources for your assertions, but most of what you're citing in support of where the national sentiment is heading is qualitative assessment in support of an a priori view.

Using the term "would-be Mussolini" was not to draw a direct historical parallel to the events, but to the appetites of the kind of people we're talking about.

All data analysis are fundamentally qualitative assessments.

The truth is just because voters vote one way in an election doesn't mean they will always vote that way. Nothing is a given, nothing is forever, that applies to blue states as much as red states. So Data Analysis making predictions of a national analysis one way or another is not always helpful or indicative in terms of "where the national sentiment is heading". In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan had a major popular mandate despite being essentially competent!Trump, but today the anti-regulatory mood he ran on is definitely not something Americans share to the extent they did then.

So once again there's no middle ground to occupy here - either you're in favor of the government providing healthcare and education to people whom the market refuses to serve, or you're not.

Insults and brickbats and labels can be undercut. If Trump's Access Hollywood didn't sink him because he got ahead of that by going "What about Bill Clinton, though?" then I don't see how the Democrats can't do that either.

By the way, the kind of European style social democracy that the likes of Bernie Sanders advocate for isn't some kind of miraculous solution either.

True, it's just that Bernies has to talk about Denmark, Norway, Sweden to change people's references about socialism. Sweden in particular thanks to its frankly idiotic COVID response isn't the Acme he says it is. And Bernie's "Socialism for the Rich, Rugged Individualism for the Poor" now that's a tagline that needs to be run and attached to the Republicans because that really works.

That only worked in Europe because all of these countries had extracted vast sums of wealth from their colonial possessions, realized that the tap would soon run dry once the colonies gained independence, and decided to invest the surplus they had accrued into a more sustainable socioeconomic system. It's not like Norwegian socialism somehow operates on inherently different principles than North Korean socialism, it's just that one country happened to have the resources to make it work and the other didn't.

Uhm...Norway didn't have a major colonial empire or colonial possession. I am not sure what you are talking about. And comparing Norway and North Korean Socialism is well, I don't even know where to begin. I mean Norway ain't perfect granted but seriously. The idea that social democracy inherently is a product of surplus from colonialism is also problematic and dubious and needs evidence from that. If we take the big example, England in 1945 where the Labor dismantled the British Raj and then launched their big programs, the problem is that leaving the Empire did not leave England a big surplus. There was a mini-recession in the late '40s when they took over, and they passed their ambitious legislation and the NHS in the teeth of that.

Imagine what the history books will say when they get to the part where the USA strip mined half the world of its resources and just wasted it all with NOTHING to show for it?

Well if USA gets that far...there probably won't be history books to write.

Likewise, USA even today isn't the only global Empire. You have Putin's Russia, and Xi Jinping's China. Putin's Russia swung Syria to Bashar Al-Assad, Xi Jinping is currently attempting a genocide/ethnic cleansing campaign against Uighurs, and destroying Hong Kong's liberties, and also expanding influence in Africa, and fighting short border wars with India.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

STRIKE THREE! GOP is 0-3 for trying to get the ACA struck now.

ACA is saved again.

High court seems likely to leave to health care law in place.

"Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, among the conservative justices, appeared in two hours of arguments to be unwilling to strike down the entire law — a long-held Republican goal that has repeatedly failed in Congress and the courts — even if they were to find the law’s now-toothless mandate for obtaining health insurance to be unconstitutional."

Kavanaugh came out against Trump.

45's gonna be mad.

The Scotus isn't giving GA Blue Voters its Dred Scott moment...not unexpected. The Voting Rights thing coming later on, that will be a bigger deal.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

STRIKE THREE! GOP is 0-3 for trying to get the ACA struck now.

ACA is saved again.

High court seems likely to leave to health care law in place.

"Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, among the conservative justices, appeared in two hours of arguments to be unwilling to strike down the entire law — a long-held Republican goal that has repeatedly failed in Congress and the courts — even if they were to find the law’s now-toothless mandate for obtaining health insurance to be unconstitutional."

Kavanaugh came out against Trump.

45's gonna be mad.

Wait until it happens. Oral arguments aren’t usually previews.

[BeastieRunner]

Wait until it happens. Oral arguments aren’t usually previews.

The conservative judges said it is "straightforward" to sever the mandate and leave the rest of the law in place.

[The Cool Thatguy]

The conservative judges said it is "straightforward" to sever the mandate and leave the rest of the law in place.

I'd rather wait until the ruling before celebrating

[Revolutionary_Jack]

The SCOTUS, even with a 6-3 Majority isn't invulnerable.

In fact the SCOTUS has to be even more careful than when it was in the time it was 5-4. Because court-packing is absolutely on the table, either 2022 or 2024.

[PwrdOn]

True, it's just that Bernies has to talk about Denmark, Norway, Sweden to change people's references about socialism. Sweden in particular thanks to its frankly idiotic COVID response isn't the Acme he says it is. And Bernie's "Socialism for the Rich, Rugged Individualism for the Poor" now that's a tagline that needs to be run and attached to the Republicans because that really works.

Uhm...Norway didn't have a major colonial empire or colonial possession. I am not sure what you are talking about. And comparing Norway and North Korean Socialism is well, I don't even know where to begin. I mean Norway ain't perfect granted but seriously. The idea that social democracy inherently is a product of surplus from colonialism is also problematic and dubious and needs evidence from that. If we take the big example, England in 1945 where the Labor dismantled the British Raj and then launched their big programs, the problem is that leaving the Empire did not leave England a big surplus. There was a mini-recession in the late '40s when they took over, and they passed their ambitious legislation and the NHS in the teeth of that.

Of course there's more to it than imperialist regimes robbing their colonies and using it to build their own welfare states, and of course much of wealth that the British plundered was simply just wasted on pointless extravagances and it wasn't until the twilight of the empire that they realized they had to get their act together. It's all about institutional control, and even though European rule has mostly ended now, they managed to plant a lot of seeds that continue to have significant influence today, such as their languages and legal systems and international organizations in which Western nations continue to hold sway. Sure the Nordic countries didn't have large colonial empires of their own, but they were invited to participate in this global system as equal partners, whereas most countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are largely barred from any position of real power, regardless of their populations or the size of their economies. And sure, it is admirable the kind of society that Norway has managed to build, but there's a reason that they have managed to turn their oil wealth into a near-guarantee of prosperity for their people for the foreseeable future, whereas all of the petrostates in the Middle East struggle to make their oil pay off for their people in any meaningful way, and it's NOT just because Norwegians are just smarter and savvier than everyone else.

[DrNewGod]

All data analysis are fundamentally qualitative assessments.

The truth is just because voters vote one way in an election doesn't mean they will always vote that way. Nothing is a given, nothing is forever, that applies to blue states as much as red states. So Data Analysis making predictions of a national analysis one way or another is not always helpful or indicative in terms of "where the national sentiment is heading". In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan had a major popular mandate despite being essentially competent!Trump, but today the anti-regulatory mood he ran on is definitely not something Americans share to the extent they did then.

I don't disagree with any but the underlined. In empirical research Qualitative and Quantitative approaches are both only able to suggest causal tendency of a phenomenon, and both can manage how they are applied to minimize bias. Where they chiefly differ is that Qualitative methods cannot come as close to establishing that they measure what they were intended to measure, they cannot estimate the strength of a tendency with as much precision, nor can they sift out as much confounding influence as (if done correctly) quantitative analysis can.

I tend to agree with more of your positions than not, Jack. But you're framing opinion as verified fact.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Of course there's more to it than imperialist regimes robbing their colonies and using it to build their own welfare states, and of course much of wealth that the British plundered was simply just wasted on pointless extravagances and it wasn't until the twilight of the empire that they realized they had to get their act together.

You say "they" as if this is some kind of grand conspiracy and so on. Let me say this, we on the Left can't accuse the right of being susceptible to conspiracy theory thinking if we ourselves fall prey to that, without evidence. Capitalist and Industrialists and Conservatives and so on, they aren't in fact omniscient all-powerful and all-knowing individuals. They wield a tremendous amount of power but it's not the case they've always wielded it well, or that things always went their way. Those people are human beings, with human limitations and human flaws.

And again there's not sufficient evidence to suggest that the wealth built by imperialism went into welfare states. England didn't invest enough in education in the 19th Century during the height of their Empire. Poverty was rife in 19th Century England and it wasn't the Cecil Rhodes of the days that eliminated poverty. The end of the British Empire didn't lead to surpluses. In the case of USA, it's colonialist expansion westward at the cost of Native American lands and so on, that didn't directly create or lead to social welfare states in those regions. This argument is absurd.

It's all about institutional control, and even though European rule has mostly ended now, they managed to plant a lot of seeds that continue to have significant influence today, such as their languages and legal systems and international organizations in which Western nations continue to hold sway.

That's hegemony, and yeah that exists but the connection between that and social welfare states needs to be established. The IMF is not an organization dedicated to spreading the welfare state around the world, leave alone Europe. I mean the EU has pushed austerity in the wake of the Recession.

Sure the Nordic countries didn't have large colonial empires of their own, but they were invited to participate in this global system as equal partners, whereas most countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are largely barred from any position of real power, regardless of their populations or the size of their economies.

What about Japan?

And sure, it is admirable the kind of society that Norway has managed to build, but there's a reason that they have managed to turn their oil wealth into a near-guarantee of prosperity for their people for the foreseeable future, whereas all of the petrostates in the Middle East struggle to make their oil pay off for their people in any meaningful way, and it's NOT just because Norwegians are just smarter and savvier than everyone else.

Petrostates were built and harnessed by left-wing governments in South America during the "Pink Tide" -- Chavez' Venezuela, Lula's Brazil, where they used oil wealth to build ambitious and popular social programs and welfare states in the teeth of US opposition. Then the oil prices dropped and the wind changed there as well. So no "oil wealth" is not inherently a near-guarantee of prosperity for the foreseeable future.

You are right that Norwegians aren't smarter or savvier than everyone else, and obviously they had other things going for them. But the idea you propose, I don't think that narrative works well.

[Amadeus Arkham]

BREAKING: White House tells federal agencies to proceed with plans for Trump’s February budget in latest sign of election defiance @JStein_WaPo @ericawerner @jdawsey1

Ugh.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

BREAKING: White House tells federal agencies to proceed with plans for Trump’s February budget in latest sign of election defiance @JStein_WaPo @ericawerner @jdawsey1

Ugh.

Its scary to think that Trump's flunkies appear ready to stage an outright coup over this and won't back down.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Its scary to think that Trump's flunkies appear ready to stage an outright coup over this and won't back down.

And the media won’t come right out and call this a coup. “Election defiance” my ass!

[BeastieRunner]

45 can't go a week without visiting one of his properties.

Just don't let him back in when he leaves next time.

[BeastieRunner]

The **** is hitting the fan.

Mental Mango Mussolini Moment in 5 ... 4 ... 3 .... 2 ...

McCabe defends investigation of Trump before Senate committee: We had 'many reasons'.

[PwrdOn]

You say "they" as if this is some kind of grand conspiracy and so on. Let me say this, we on the Left can't accuse the right of being susceptible to conspiracy theory thinking if we ourselves fall prey to that, without evidence. Capitalist and Industrialists and Conservatives and so on, they aren't in fact omniscient all-powerful and all-knowing individuals. They wield a tremendous amount of power but it's not the case they've always wielded it well, or that things always went their way. Those people are human beings, with human limitations and human flaws.

And again there's not sufficient evidence to suggest that the wealth built by imperialism went into welfare states. England didn't invest enough in education in the 19th Century during the height of their Empire. Poverty was rife in 19th Century England and it wasn't the Cecil Rhodes of the days that eliminated poverty. The end of the British Empire didn't lead to surpluses. In the case of USA, it's colonialist expansion westward at the cost of Native American lands and so on, that didn't directly create or lead to social welfare states in those regions. This argument is absurd.



That's hegemony, and yeah that exists but the connection between that and social welfare states needs to be established. The IMF is not an organization dedicated to spreading the welfare state around the world, leave alone Europe. I mean the EU has pushed austerity in the wake of the Recession.



What about Japan?



Petrostates were built and harnessed by left-wing governments in South America during the "Pink Tide" -- Chavez' Venezuela, Lula's Brazil, where they used oil wealth to build ambitious and popular social programs and welfare states in the teeth of US opposition. Then the oil prices dropped and the wind changed there as well. So no "oil wealth" is not inherently a near-guarantee of prosperity for the foreseeable future.

You are right that Norwegians aren't smarter or savvier than everyone else, and obviously they had other things going for them. But the idea you propose, I don't think that narrative works well.

It's not a conspiracy theory to say that Western powers colonized and exploited the rest of the world for their own benefit and that the global system we live in is largely a legacy of the age of imperialism, that is just common knowledge. And no, nothing that any non-Western empire in history ever did can match it in scope, not even the Mongols left such a lasting legacy of oppression and suffering. And yes, at the height of empire, the European nations weren't too concerned with building up welfare states because it was far more profitable to invest in further imperial adventures instead, it was only when the empires were disintegrating and the realization dawned that the easy money wasn't going to be flowing in anymore that they developed a sense of urgency to actually take care of their people. But none of that would have been possible without all of the benefits that they derived from imperialism in the first place, whenever countries in the third world have tried to build up their welfare states without being able to draw on ill-gotten wealth to fund it, they've always faced quite an uphill climb. And countries like Norway don't need to worry about building up their militaries or playing complex diplomatic games because they don't need to fear the US sponsoring a coup and stealing all of their oil, something which is a constant threat for any country in Latin America and the Middle East that expresses the slightest leftist tendencies.

Oh, and as for "Western-adjacent" states like Japan and Korea, sure they get a seat at the table, but they need to be careful about not getting too big for their britches or else they'll be smacked down hard. This was basically what played out in the 80s when Japan's economy looked like it was ready to rival the US for global dominance, we simply gave them a gentle reminder that we still had troops based on their soil and forced them to sign the Plaza Accords which effectively burst their bubble and started them on a path of economic stagnation that they have yet to break out of. And while Korea is still thriving for now, there's also this implicit understanding that there's a limit to what they'll be able to achieve and that if they ever pose any kind of challenge to Western hegemony it's not going to end well for them. After all, the fact that all the nuclear diplomacy on the peninsula was between Kim Jong Un and Trump, NOT with the President of South Korea, tells you everything you need to know about who calls the shots there. And Koreans are proud people too, it can't possibly sit well with them that for all the talk of being this rising economic powerhouse that they are still forced to sit at the kids table diplomatically.