All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Mister Mets]

This is a good article, 2020 resulted in a record voting turnout, as each group was able to mobilize their voters to full capacity.

There was a blue wave, but there was also a red wave (Trump found 10 million new voters) but it was not enough for him to win the election, because nationally the democratic coalition is bigger than the Trump coalition (Hence the Republicans losing the popular vote for the last what 7? election cycles)

So than why did Democrats lose the house? As the article eludes to, it most likely has to do with Conservative counties in places like California, switching back to red, alongside I will add, the effect of gerrymandering, and Trump's loss of support amongst moderates that did not transfer over to the house.

I think the 2020 election is a good snapshot of where the nation sits ideologically on the political spectrum as a whole. So while the Democrat civil war narrative is good for media ratings, I'm not so sure it paints an accurate picture of what happened in 2020.

To be entirely fair, Democrats did not lose the House. They lost seats in the House at a time when they were expected to make gains, and they'll be much more vulnerable in the 2022 midterms.

There was a good piece in the Times by Thomas Edsall highlighting a conflict of interests for Democrats in that what can work with the presidential race doesn't necessarily help in the median congressional district.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/o...il&login=email

Analysts and insiders are already talking *— sometimes in apocalyptic terms — about how hard it will be for Joe Biden to hold together the coalition that elected him as the 46th president. But it’s important to remember that conflicts are inherent in a party that seeks to represent constituencies running the gamut from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 14th district in New York (50 percent Hispanic, 22 percent non-Hispanic white, 18 percent Asian, 8 percent Black) to 7th generation Utahan Ben McAdams’s 4th District in Utah (74 percent white, 1 percent Black, 3 percent Asian, 17 percent Hispanic.)

Jonathan Rodden, a political scientist at Stanford who has explored the structural difficulties facing Democrats in his book “Why Cities Lose,” wrote in an email that the concentration of liberals in urban communities creates a built-in conflict for the party:

“The ‘presidential wing’ of the party,” he said, referring to the wing most concerned with winning the national election for the White House, “faces no incentives to worry about the geography of Congressional or state legislative districts at all.” The ideal platform for winning presidential elections, Rodden continued,

might be one that hurts the party in pivotal Congressional races. This dynamic might be even more pronounced if the ”presidential wing” decides to pursue a strategy of mobilizing the urban base in order to win those pivotal states.

Race, Rodden added,

only enhances this effect. Given the urban concentration of African- Americans in Northern cities, the Democratic political strategy that maximizes the probability of winning the electoral votes of a pivotal state is probably more responsive to the policy priorities of African-American voters than the strategy that would maximize the probability of winning the mostly white pivotal exurban district in that state.

[The no face guy]

To be entirely fair, Democrats did not lose the House. They lost seats in the House at a time when they were expected to make gains, and they'll be much more vulnerable in the 2022 midterms.

There was a good piece in the Times by Thomas Edsall highlighting a conflict of interests for Democrats in that what can work with the presidential race doesn't necessarily help in the median congressional district.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/o...il&login=email

You are correct for pointing out my wording. There has been so much talk in the media about the Democrats losing the house, that I wrote if offhand, I should have stated lost their gains.

The loss of democrat house seats, reflects that fact that with almost record high voter turnout, some house seats (Conservative counties in California) switched back to Republican.

I agree, globalization has increased inequality across the board, resulting in a build up of more progressive left candidates like Cortez in the inner city districts, Biden however won by mobilizing the Obama coalition that is much more concerned with traditional bread and butter issues like healthcare and access to education.

If Democrats win the senate the progressive left could be a problem for Biden if they start lobbying to "Defund the police", if they don't, it will not be a problem because Biden can say to Cortez, "My hands are tied because of Mitch"

We have seen, (As in 2014 house election) that the voters put the breaks on Democrats when they are perceived of going too far left on policy, by voting Republican in the house. The numbers speak for themselves.

[Madam-Shogun-Assassin]

If only we could blame all this on Trump. But we can't. These are systemic issues in America that are being exposed now.

Poverty? Living right on the edge of surviving, paycheck to paycheck. fucked up prison labor. terrible education systems. corruption in government without consequence. Is any of this new? It isn't. Sadly.

Took the words right out of my mouth, I was about to say more or less the same thing. These neo-liberal policies is a bipartisan creation basically, and that's the bitter truth.

[Steel Inquisitor]

You are correct for pointing out my wording. There has been so much talk in the media about the Democrats losing the house, that I wrote if offhand, I should have stated lost their gains.

The loss of democrat house seats, reflects that fact that with almost record high voter turnout, some house seats (Conservative counties in California) switched back to Republican.

I agree, globalization has increased inequality across the board, resulting in a build up of more progressive left candidates like Cortez in the inner city districts, Biden however won by mobilizing the Obama coalition that is much more concerned with traditional bread and butter issues like healthcare and access to education.

If Democrats win the senate the progressive left could be a problem for Biden if they start lobbying to "Defund the police", if they don't, it will not be a problem because Biden can say to Cortez, "My hands are tied because of Mitch"

We have seen, (As in 2014 house election) that the voters put the breaks on Democrats when they are perceived of going too far left on policy, by voting Republican in the house. The numbers speak for themselves.

The schism is a positive, as well as a negative. Both sides energies their base by playing off one another, both would lose supporters by agreeing with the other and AOC is an expert at playing the game now. She knows what to say and how to say it with her base, she's had that from her first election.

[worstblogever]

Edit: NEvermind.

[Madam-Shogun-Assassin]

Why are we funding police forces to evict people instead of using those funds to house people? Its **** like this (among a lot of other things) why I fully support defunding the police. Police unions are waaaaay too fuckin powerful.

[Madam-Shogun-Assassin]

If Democrats win the senate the progressive left could be a problem for Biden if they start lobbying to "Defund the police", if they don't, it will not be a problem because Biden can say to Cortez, "My hands are tied because of Mitch".

Which is why the democrats need to win the senate so Biden can't wiggle his way out of this, and blame mitch.

[4saken1]

This is a good article, 2020 resulted in a record voting turnout, as each group was able to mobilize their voters to full capacity.

There was a blue wave, but there was also a red wave (Trump found 10 million new voters) but it was not enough for him to win the election, because nationally the democratic coalition is bigger than the Trump coalition (Hence the Republicans losing the popular vote for the last what 7? election cycles)

So than why did Democrats lose the house? As the article eludes to, it most likely has to do with Conservative counties in places like California, switching back to red, alongside I will add, the effect of gerrymandering, and Trump's loss of support amongst moderates that did not transfer over to the house.

I think the 2020 election is a good snapshot of where the nation sits ideologically on the political spectrum as a whole. So while the Democrat civil war narrative is good for media ratings, I'm not so sure it paints an accurate picture of what happened in 2020.

I've heard too that the fact that Republicans were out in full force campaigning, often to crowds largely sans masks, while Democrats tended to play it safe and stay away from public events, helped Republicans, especially incumbents, win their Congressional races. From what I understand, the Democratic seats that got flipped were almost entirely by Republicans that were either female, minority, veterans, or some combination thereof. Basically, Democrats didn't really give any seats up to the typical crusty old white male that comprises the vast majority of Republicans in Congress. Hopefully this is a good sign for things to come within the Republican Party, but I'm not holding my breath.

[The no face guy]

Which is why the democrats need to win the senate so Biden can't wiggle his way out of this, and blame mitch.

If you are a democrat, whether moderate or hardliner, than it is preferable for Democrats to win the senate in January, only a Republican would think otherwise.

Biden will be able to handle Cortez easily, strong leaders keep the fringe in their party at the bay by making some concessions that won't hurt their electoral vote, weak leaders like Trump, put them at the forefront to try to win.

[numberthirty]

Took the words right out of my mouth, I was about to say more or less the same thing. These neo-liberal policies is a bipartisan creation basically, and that's the bitter truth.

At the very least, Dems(minus a handful...) seem pretty fine with just shrugging their shoulders like "What, us?..."

Never mind things on a smaller scale(state level).

[Madam-Shogun-Assassin]

If you are a democrat, whether moderate or hardliner, than it is preferable for Democrats to win the senate in January, only a Republican would think otherwise.

Biden will be able to handle Cortez easily, strong leaders keep the fringe in their party at the bay by making some concessions that won't hurt their electoral vote, weak leaders like Trump, put them at the forefront to try to win.

Except Cortez isn't "fringe"

[The no face guy]

Except Cortez isn't "fringe"

Okay, hardline progressive than.

[Tendrin]

People only start hating progressive policies when you attach Democrats to them.

[worstblogever]

It never gets old to see conservative posters tell Democrats who deserves to be elevated or muted within the party.

Oh, wait, it was silly from the start.

[numberthirty]

It never gets old to see conservative posters tell Democrats who deserves to be elevated or muted within the party.

Oh, wait, it was silly from the start.

We are talking about the Democrats who just face planted on holding onto gains in the House, right?

It's not like we are talking about a set of politicians who are eight innings into pitching a shutout.