All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Iron Maiden]

as a reminder, steve rogers was originally disqualified due to various health issues from being admitting into the army during WWII. and yet he kept trying.

trump got out of serving due to.....ahem....."bone spurs".

* poor baby * I guess that's Trump's excuse for driving his golf cart on the greens of golf courses, which s a non-golfer I've come to understand is a breach of golf etiquette

[Malvolio]

Yep. That’s to be expected. The GOP voters do the worst mental gymnastics to excuse his behavior. The president could nuke Iran tomorrow and they majority would still support him. It’s honestly mind boggling.

Not really. I mean, who else have they got to run right now? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? Jeb "Please Clap" Bush? They need someone who's not that well known right now to make a name for him or herself over the next two years to have any chance of a viable candidate.

[Agent Z]

The internet is blocked and security has been stepped up in Uganda as counting gets under way after polls closed in a hotly contested election.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55649467

[Iron Maiden]

Neal Kirby, the son of Captain America co-creator Jack Kirby, was distressed to see some of the January 6 terrorists/rioters wearing shirts with versions of his dad’s creation corrupted by the image of the outgoing president. His message to them:

Tami posted the full text of Neal Kirby's statement one page back

[Amadeus Arkham]

Can Republicans Bounce Back Post-Trump Like They Did After Nixon?

As the Republican Party reels from Donald Trump’s seditious effort to overturn Joe Biden’s election and the impeachment it will soon earn him, diagnoses of the party’s malady range from fatal to weakened to sick but purged and recovering. But it’s worth remembering this isn’t the first time observers thought the party was facing an existential crisis from which it might not recover.

In October 2016, for example, Republicans were running for the hills after it was revealed that their presidential candidate had boasted of being able to get away with sexual assault, using crude terms that had to insult every woman in America. Twelve years ago, after Barack Obama’s election and a Democratic congressional landslide, there was talk of the GOP being demographically doomed unless it undertook fundamental changes to recruit new kinds of voters.

So prophecies of disaster often don’t come true. But the moment in living Republican memory that most resembles what we are experiencing today occurred in 1974, when another disgraced president scurried toward Marine One in flight from the White House: Richard Nixon.

Then, as now, Republicans stuck with their embattled and scandal-ridden president for a long time before evidence of extreme conduct (e.g., Nixon’s “smoking gun” tape and Trump’s January 6 speech inciting the riot) wrecked their unity and confidence. Then, as now, the leader had to be pushed out the door. Then, as now, there was even talk of the GOP being displaced by a new third party (today, a Trumpist “populist” party, then a Reagan-led conservative party uniting business constituencies with blue-collar workers and Southerners).

But there are some very important differences in the condition of the GOP at the endgame of these two disastrous presidencies.

Trump Has More Rank-and-File Support

In the final Gallup survey before his resignation, Nixon’s job-approval rating among Republicans was at 50 percent, and 31 percent of Republicans favored his resignation. According to a NPR/Marist survey, Trump’s job-approval rating from Republicans is at 77 percent (with 64 percent “strongly” approving), and only 15 percent of Republicans support steps to remove him from office before his term expires.

“Moving on” from Trump won’t be as easy as it was for Republicans to put Nixon in the rearview mirror, in part because they retained the White House under his successor, Gerald Ford, and in part because there was zero fear of Nixon making another comeback.

Republicans Were Consolidating an Enduring Majority Back Then, Not Now

While Nixon’s disgrace and resignation temporarily plunged his party into crisis (exemplified by the “Watergate Election” midterm Democratic landslide that occurred less than three months after Nixon left office) it’s important to remember that he won a second term by a landslide in 1972, and that the Democratic Party was in the middle of a chronic ideological crisis. Democrats won 43 percent of the popular vote for president in 1968 and 38 percent in 1972. They got a temporary respite when one-time southern voters and those disgusted by Watergate gave Jimmy Carter 50 percent in 1976, but they were back down to 41 percent in 1980 and didn’t win a popular-vote majority again until 2008. Republicans didn’t have much rebounding to do at all: They came within an eyelash of winning in 1976 and didn’t lose the presidency again until 1992.

Now it’s Republicans who are on a long-term popular-vote losing streak in presidential contests (from 1992 through 2020, with the exception of 2004). And the GOP is famously on the wrong side of demographic trends that are shrinking its coalition rooted in older white voters and expanding the opposition’s younger and more diverse base. Yes, they enjoy more robust power than their actual support merits thanks to the distorting effects of the Senate, the Electoral College, and gerrymandering of House and state legislative districts. But it’s not like they have a stiff wind at their backs as they seek to recover from a lost presidential election and now a doubly impeached president.
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[DrNewGod]

This entire family is just repulsive.

"The $3,000-a-month toilet for the Ivanka Trump/Jared Kushner Secret Service detail" via The Washington Post

Many U.S. Secret Service agents have stood guard in Washington’s elite Kalorama neighborhood, home over the years to Cabinet secretaries and former presidents. Those agents have had to worry about death threats, secure perimeters and suspicious strangers. But with the arrival of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, they had a new worry: finding a toilet.

Instructed not to use any of the half-dozen bathrooms inside the couple’s house, the Secret Service detail assigned to President Trump’s daughter and son-in-law spent months searching for a reliable restroom to use on the job, according to neighbors and law enforcement officials. After resorting to a porta-potty, as well as bathrooms at the nearby home of former president Barack Obama and the not-so-nearby residence of Vice President Pence, the agents finally found a toilet to call their own.

[Robotman]

Can Republicans Bounce Back Post-Trump Like They Did After Nixon?

I really don’t think it will be difficult for the Republican Party “bounce back”. The views of the insurrectionists are the views of the main base of the GOP. They are still favored to win control of Congress in 2024. The Republican representatives and their voters are all about party over country.

They’ll be fine. The rest of the country is screwed.

[The Cool Thatguy]

This entire family is just repulsive.

"The $3,000-a-month toilet for the Ivanka Trump/Jared Kushner Secret Service detail" via The Washington Post

This is almost unbelievably petty.

I say almost, because the Trumps really have no bottom, and I totally believe it

[Bruce Wayne]

Can Republicans Bounce Back Post-Trump Like They Did After Nixon?

I mean the Republicans have a large pile of money from the Kochs and Mercer to bail them out and they are consolidating their hold over white voters while still been able to get away with extrajudicial violence. The GOP has a much brighter future than the Democrats who just can't catch a break.

Edit: It took four years of scandals plus a once in a century pandemic just to unseat Trump who was still able to walk away with 74 million votes.

[Farealmer]

https://nypost.com/2021/01/07/known-...-riot-sources/
The cons are spooling up the narrative.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

https://nypost.com/2021/01/07/known-...-riot-sources/
The cons are spooling up the narrative.

I mean that story tries to headling a lie into reality and then for legal reason admits in the bottom paragraph that it's BS.

Edit: It took four years of scandals plus a once in a century pandemic just to unseat Trump who was still able to walk away with 74 million votes.

Trump had a good chance of losing had there been no pandemic. And the 74 million GOP voter turnout would not have been so high had there been no pandemic.

I wouldn't say the downfall of the GOP is imminent or anything but I certainly don't see them indicating itself to be a strong stable national party.

[TheDarman]

I really don’t think it will be difficult for the Republican Party “bounce back”. The views of the insurrectionists are the views of the main base of the GOP. They are still favored to win control of Congress in 2024. The Republican representatives and their voters are all about party over country.

They’ll be fine. The rest of the country is screwed.

I disagree.

While the House majority is certainly in trouble (Democrats only hold onto the majority by four, maybe five (when other elections are called), seats), it is important to recognize that Republicans are defending way more vulnerable seats in 2022 for the Senate than Democrats are.

While North Carolina has been difficult for Democrats to win, they won't have to contend with an incumbency advantage for their Republican opponent. And that is true with Pennsylvania, which has been better for Democrats when Trump isn't on the ballot. The Lieutenant Governor, who seems reasonably popular in the state, is the one running for, and most likely to get, the Democratic nomination for the seat.

Georgia may be problematic given that Warnock won the state by a little over two points against an unelected incumbent who was perceived to be widely out of touch and riddled with scandal. But Stacey Abrams may turn that race into a spectacle as she might run for governor again. And, given Kemp's issues with Trump, she may be running against someone without an incumbency advantage and someone who would have argued to overturn Georgia's election in 2020--a point that certainly helped Democrats swing the race three points in their direction.

Arizona is an interesting case. I'm unsure if it will be like Virginia...or more like North Carolina. Their swing towards Democrats seems to be more emblematic of an issue with Trump than with the Republican Party. But the Arizona GOP seems intent to censure all Republicans who don't stand with Trump. I don't see how a candidate who isn't a threat to democracy doesn't make his or her way to that ticket. And Kelly is a great candidate on paper and will have an incumbency advantage as well.

Florida is another odd opportunity. While it has drifted towards Trump's GOP in recent years, there are rumors that Ivanka Trump wants to run for Rubio's seat. If there is a bruising primary in Florida, that could open up a reasonably united Democratic Party to take away a seat in another swing state. Especially if Biden isn't the socialist that Trump made him out to be in this race.

Meanwhile, Ron Johnson is running a state that elected his Democratic partner by over ten points in 2018. Johnson has also tied himself quite closely to Trump, despite Trump losing the state this time after barely eeking out a win in 2016. While Wisconsin is a weird state, it has been better for Democrats, especially without Trump at the top of the ticket.

And, while Roy Blunt did do the right thing and vote to certify the election, he only won a state by 2.8% that Trump won by nearly double digits in 2016, and by more in 2020. With Trump's ire coming after him, I imagine that he will at least be weakened in the general. And a candidate like Jason Kander could bring him down there too. It may not be likely, but it is a vulnerability.

The truth is that Democrats are defending two vulnerable seats in Arizona and Georgia. Meanwhile, Republicans are defending competitive seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania (which will both be open seats in 2022), Florida (because it is still a swing state of sorts), Wisconsin (a state with a pretty unpopular incumbent), Missouri, Iowa (depending on whether or not Grassley runs again), and maybe Ohio (though I think that Portman is probably safe--middle of the road enough to scrape by).

This is even conceding the House majority may be in trouble, but it is important to recognize, also, that the current majority is even in an arrangement of seats that were created for the explicit purpose of locking Democrats out of control of the chamber for ten years at least. Democrats have control of far more state houses and governor mansions this time than they did back in 2011 after a rough mid-term. I see no reason to conclude that the map will be that much worse for Democrats than it has been in prior years.

[Amadeus Arkham]

So far so good.

[TheDarman]

Trump had a good chance of losing had there been no pandemic. And the 74 million GOP voter turnout would not have been so high had there been no pandemic.

I wouldn't say the downfall of the GOP is imminent or anything but I certainly don't see them indicating itself to be a strong stable national party.

One thing to note is that, as pollsters noted, the race between Biden and Trump was the most consistent race in recent memory, even in spite of the pandemic.

Another thing that I noted is that Biden's weakness among Latinx voters seemed to come because of a mostly myopic focus on the pandemic (rather than on other key issues like immigration) and the use of disinformation by Republicans to turn Latinx voters against Democrats. Plus, Democrats didn't do door-knocking campaigns either as a result of the pandemic.

The pandemic changed a lot of things about the race, but I don't think that it is particularly appropriate to think that they were all positive for Democrats.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

One thing to note is that, as pollsters noted, the race between Biden and Trump was the most consistent race in recent memory, even in spite of the pandemic.

Another thing that I noted is that Biden's weakness among Latinx voters seemed to come because of a mostly myopic focus on the pandemic (rather than on other key issues like immigration) and the use of disinformation by Republicans to turn Latinx voters against Democrats. Plus, Democrats didn't do door-knocking campaigns either as a result of the pandemic.

The pandemic changed a lot of things about the race, but I don't think that it is particularly appropriate to think that they were all positive for Democrats.

Exactly.

The biggest effect of the pandemic on the election was that it increased voter turnout for both parties. Dems got into Voting by Mail (and now that their electorate is trained in that, I say keep that infrastructure in place going forward since they can use it to maintain high turnout in midterms going forward), while Pandemic furloughs and working by home meant that Republicans who vote in person could go out on election day in bigger than usual numbers. So that was the biggest effect the Pandemic had on election. And a positive one I think. Low propensity voters for Republicans was the biggest election surprise because people thought Trump voters of 2016 would be in the same numbers...when instead you had this. On the other hand, without the Pandemic, I dunno if AZ goes for Biden since the major turnout was the Navajos breaking for Biden and that was a direct result of the Pandemic response on their community.

But anyway, it's not a case that Biden's win was simply because of COVID-19. If anything, COVID-19 was Trump's big second chance. Had Trump reacted and handled the crisis well, then he might have won. It was his big second chance and he frittered it away.

And let's not forget that if not for the Pandemic stuff like NYT's bombshell report on his taxes would have had a bigger impact and been a bigger deal into the elections. The tax report would have dropped regardless of the Pandemic I think. The economy was due for a recession even before the pandemic.

But even then without Pandemic, Trump would have f--ked things over some other way, he would have denied the election defeat anyway, and he would have plotted the coup anyway. That stuff is Trump with or without COVID.