All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Bruce Wayne]

Maybe he'll start posting on 4chan.

[Amadeus Arkham]

EXACTLY! Captain America certainly does not represent the American reality but he represents the American Ideal. Perhaps no president could meet that ideal but Trump is the antithesis of it.

Yep.

[TheDarman]

The GOP can become a conservative party on the model of the UK Tories or Germany's CDU led by Merkel, both of whom for all its problems aren't so irredemably toxic as the GOP seems on the path of becoming.

The issue with this being that a GOP like that would be more likely to select someone like Mitt Romney (albeit with perhaps some more moderate views on social program benefits) or John McCain (albeit with perhaps more moderate views on America's role in the world). The GOP is unlikely to go back in that direction. Too many people, including the "rising stars" in the party (like Matt Gaetz or Josh Hawley), view that party as a bunch of losers. They think that Trump was the future, just with some errors in messaging.

[TheDarman]

Republicans do have a chance at pickups in New Hampshire and Nevada.

Nevada is a possibility, though I think that is mostly a turnout fight (similar to Georgia in that respect). I'd argue Nevada is close not because there are a lot of swing voters, but because the state is closely divided between Conservatives and Liberals.

The political environment in New Hampshire has changed considerably since 2016 though. It is not dissimilar from my state of Colorado. In 2016, Clinton won Colorado by 4.91% while Biden carried the state by 13.5 points. In 2016, Clinton won New Hampshire by 0.37% while Biden carried the state this time by 7.35 points. Biden had the characteristic of outperforming his down ballot Democrats, but it was rare for him to do seven points better.

Of course, my argument about New Hampshire could easily apply to Missouri too.

Much of it will depend on candidate quality, and the political environment. Midterms tend to go poorly for the party in the White House, but Republicans did nominate Roy Moore, and Corey Stewart.

They do tend to go poorly. But, given our situation, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden is considerably more popular as president during the mid-terms than Obama or Trump before him. The vaccine distribution will happen under his administration. The economic recovery will hopefully be quite sharp and hopefully be driven by bipartisan stimulus to drive economic gains (and, if not bipartisan, then certainly ones passed under budgetary reconciliation). This situation is unlike anything we've seen inherited by a modern president and he actually has a decent chance of getting some things done with the economic and health recovery, while still leaving Democrats wanting more (like with the reestablishment of the Voting Rights Act, which would require the abolition of the filibuster).

[Revolutionary_Jack]

The issue with this being that a GOP like that would be more likely to select someone like Mitt Romney (albeit with perhaps some more moderate views on social program benefits) or John McCain (albeit with perhaps more moderate views on America's role in the world). The GOP is unlikely to go back in that direction. Too many people, including the "rising stars" in the party (like Matt Gaetz or Josh Hawley), view that party as a bunch of losers. They think that Trump was the future, just with some errors in messaging.

I wonder what they think of Eisenhower since he was a conservative Republican in that mould and he was a fairly successful and popular president.

[TheDarman]

I wonder what they think of Eisenhower since he was a conservative Republican in that mould and he was a fairly successful and popular president.

Neither Eisenhower nor Reagan would win a primary in today's Republican Party. I'm even iffy on the two Bushes at this point.

[Amadeus Arkham]

Neither Eisenhower nor Reagan would win a primary in today's Republican Party. I'm even iffy on the two Bushes at this point.

May I ask you two questions?

1. Who do you think is the front runner for the GOP presidential nomination for 2024 if Trump doesn’t end up running?

2. Do you think Joe Biden will run for re-election in 2024?

[CJStriker]

[Mister Mets]

Nevada is a possibility, though I think that is mostly a turnout fight (similar to Georgia in that respect). I'd argue Nevada is close not because there are a lot of swing voters, but because the state is closely divided between Conservatives and Liberals.

The political environment in New Hampshire has changed considerably since 2016 though. It is not dissimilar from my state of Colorado. In 2016, Clinton won Colorado by 4.91% while Biden carried the state by 13.5 points. In 2016, Clinton won New Hampshire by 0.37% while Biden carried the state this time by 7.35 points. Biden had the characteristic of outperforming his down ballot Democrats, but it was rare for him to do seven points better.

Of course, my argument about New Hampshire could easily apply to Missouri too.



They do tend to go poorly. But, given our situation, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden is considerably more popular as president during the mid-terms than Obama or Trump before him. The vaccine distribution will happen under his administration. The economic recovery will hopefully be quite sharp and hopefully be driven by bipartisan stimulus to drive economic gains (and, if not bipartisan, then certainly ones passed under budgetary reconciliation). This situation is unlike anything we've seen inherited by a modern president and he actually has a decent chance of getting some things done with the economic and health recovery, while still leaving Democrats wanting more (like with the reestablishment of the Voting Rights Act, which would require the abolition of the filibuster).

New Hampshire swings a lot. The state legislature has jumped from Republican to Democratic and back again.

Republicans did take back the state legislature in 2020, and the Republican Governor is one of the most popular in the nation. Apparently, he's interested in going to Washington.

It'll be interesting who gets credit for the vaccines. The development occurred under Trump, and the distribution has started under Trump. Republicans will do their best to spin positive developments as the result of plans in place before Biden became President, while blaming the Biden administration for any mistakes. Democrats will do their best to make Biden seem like the second coming of FDR.

In 2022, there are likely to be other big stories in the news.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

It'll be interesting who gets credit for the vaccines.

The scientists. Especially since the first one by Pfizer was done without any help from Trump's directives.

The development occurred under Trump, and the distribution has started under Trump.

The distribution has slowed down because of Trump's incompetence, trailing behind UK and other countries, and he devoted most of his time to a coup d'etat.

Republicans will do their best to spin positive developments as the result of plans in place before Biden became President, while blaming the Biden administration for any mistakes. Democrats will do their best to make Biden seem like the second coming of FDR.

Hoover started some relief programs before FDR took office too, but nobody remembers that. Especially since it was too little too late.

[worstblogever]

In 2022, there are likely to be other big stories in the news.

Like Trump administration people beginning to serve their prison sentences for rampant criminal activity uncovered throughout 2021.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Like Trump administration people beginning to serve their prison sentences for rampant criminal activity uncovered throughout 2021.

Republicans like Nancy Mace herself said that Trump's coup has erased everything in his career. This action above all else will define him.

He's not gonna get any credit for the vaccines or anything.

[Wildling]

The whole trying to spin any positive for vaccine creation/development for Trump only because he was still in office at the time is pretty sad and pathetic (downright despicable when taking into account his War On Blue States).

Even Fox News seemed to understand this on some level, I heard they tried to claim Pfizer delayed the vaccine completion in order to damage Trump during the election, both advancing conspiracy theorizing that is the bread and circus for current Republicans while suggesting the good news many Americans were expecting was basically out of Trump's hands.

And it's not like it matters when or where vaccines are made. Trump doesn't care about the pandemic and claimed everyone would forget about the scary statistics after the election. He certainly did, he devotes more time ordering Y'all Qaeda around than talking about all the no-name people who have to roll out vaccination, hopefully right now when he's still President.

[Amadeus Arkham]

lol.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

lol.

I think it's the reference to Nixon winning the popular vote twice, and his positive record on Native American rights and creating the EPA, and also the visit to China that pisses him off.

Nixon is a president who did good and bad things. Trump is the guy who did nothing good.


PS: hey how do you put twitter links on the chatbox on CBR?