Originally Posted by
BeastieRunner
OOOOoooooooOOOoooo!
Time to dig up my old statehood posts/research.
I believe the last time this came up ...
They'd pull electoral votes from Texas, Washington, California, Florida, and Minnesota in 2020. Which ends up being a political wash.
The largest resistance comes from Texas and Florida because they're due to have the largest electoral swing in 2020. Well now 2021 since the census got borked.
Looking at the data, this appears to still be the case. Texas would drop into a full-blown swing state, not a stronghold if ONE new state is added. Florida would lose the swing state sway it has and just be a crown jewel voting bloc.
If PR became a state, they'd get 2 Senators, and 5 Representatives. That means if Puerto Rico became the 51st state that Florida, Washington, Texas, California, and Minnesota would lose seats. Texas would only gain 3 new seats, Florida 1, Washington 0, and California & Minnesota would each lose 1 seat.
The Republican-voting Texas and the swing-state of Florida have been expected to be the only states to oppose Puerto Rico becoming a state (they both said this in 2010, 2011, 2015, and 2016).
Based on voting history for the last 25 years, it would mean we'd get some new initials in our government, too. The PNP would take both Senate seats, 2 House seats, and the PID, PPT, and PPD would split what's left evenly. All but the PPD said they'd caucus with the Democrats. The Partido Independentista Puertorriqueño (PID) is pro-independence, social democracy so they are the wild card. Many expect them and the PPD to caucus with the GQP at first.
Based on recent census data, Washington might protest statehood as well because they stand to lose a new House seat. The GQP is gaining traction in WA and a proposed redistricting hurts the GQP and a 51st state would hurt them even more. You're looking at a shift of 5 Rs to 1 R in WA for 2021 if Puerto Rico became a state.
If you look at census data, Puerto Rico would more likely than not be all Dems if their parties scatter. The GQP might get one House seat out of it. Unless the Cuban population changed drastically. IF that happens, I could see the GQP pick up 2 seats in the house.
Additionally, PR is a major tax haven for 65 year-old and older hedge fund managers. The GQP might want to not have them become a state ... because the House ethics committee would have a field day. There are currently 17 GQPs and 2 Dems that shelter funds there right now in an apartment building. I mean a business and credit union.