Katie Wadington and Jeanine Santucci
Tue, April 27, 2021, 6:28 AM
Texas will gain two more congressional seats and seven states will each lose a seat as a result of population shifts recorded in the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau said Monday in the release of its first round of data from the survey taken last year.
In total, seven seats shifted affecting 13 states. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each gained one seat in addition to Texas. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost one seat.
The shift could affect the 2022 midterm elections and whether Democrats can hold onto control of the House, where they hold a narrow majority. It's also part of a broader shift to the South and West of the U.S., with 84 seats shifting toward those states since 1940.
The U.S. House of Representatives has 435 seats, based on population. Every decade, as population shifts, the allotment of seats for each state may change based on updated data collected by the Census Bureau. States that grow may gain House members, at the expense of shrinking states.
The population for apportionment includes residents of the 50 states, plus overseas service members and federal civilian employees who are attached to their home state's tally, according to the Census Bureau.
Census data: 5 visuals explain the shifting House seats and how the changes could affect the 2022 midterm elections
New congressional districts would take effect for the 2022 election. That puts added pressure on Democrats, who control the house by the slim margin of 218-212, with five seats vacant. The size of the House has not changed since 1913.
States that gained seats were mostly Republican-leaning, with Texas, Florida, Montana and North Carolina each voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. North Carolina was one of the closer races, with Trump defeating President Joe Biden by less than 1.5%. Oregon and Colorado, meanwhile, were solidly blue states in the last election.
States that lost seats were mostly Democratic, but consist of more close battleground states. California, Illinois and New York were solidly in Biden’s column; Michigan and Pennsylvania were closer swing states with slim margins for the president. Trump prevailed in Ohio and West Virginia.
“Today’s data release is the first step in the redistricting process and it will give states the number of congressional districts they will have for the rest of the decade,” said Michael Li, senior counsel for the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program.
“Because in some of the states... like Texas, Florida and North Carolina, redistricting is controlled by one party, it gives them a huge advantage because they can aggressively draw the map however they want,” Li said. “Aggressive gerrymandering could give Republicans a House majority in 2022.”