All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Revolutionary_Jack]

That "something" isn't strange at all,

I meant strange in terms of scale, a bit like "something strange in the neighborhood" a la the theme song of Ghostbusters.

What I meant was that it made Trump from normal regular white man evil to monster-level evil, that's all. From a rational business rich-guy perspective, Trump entering politics never made sense. I mean yeah his taxes are bad and he's used the office to grease his wheels but even if the bill came due, the IRS being understaffed and under-resourced would not have been able to do much against him. A pragmatic evil guy like the Kochs, the Murdochs, the Sacklers wouldn't do that.

Only a monster-level personally radicalized evil guy could do it.

Trump, and the people he was in tune with HATED that a black man was president. Nothing more complicated than that, and I stand by this claim.

As do I. Total agreement there.

That's why I don't like words that say Trump is a good con man, or that he saw an opportunity because I think Trump does what he does intuitively and dynamically. Obama's presidency radicalized him. And through twitter and social media, he intuitively understood that radicalization and managed to magnify it. America has had organized white supremacists like David Duke, and of course Breitbart and others in the alt-right but by themselves they wouldn't have amounted to anything. Trump's intuition and luck took them further than any of them individually could have gone.

I've said on this thread from day one that Trump's hatred towards Obama began on the night of the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner when Obama made jokes about Trump, and the thin-skinned bastard took it personally, taking his vendetta against Obama to the next level. Outrageous, you say? Idiotic, you say? Yes to both, ditto for the whole sorry situation over the last decade.

Well it happened before that. As soon as Obama became President, Trump got involved in the Birther conspiracy and his drive to ask Obama for his birth certificate and that racist conspiracy and so on was what propelled him to the center of GOP politics. Mitt Romney, let's not forget, kissed the ring and sought Trump's endorsement in 2012.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I meant strange in terms of scale, a bit like "something strange in the neighborhood" a la the theme song of Ghostbusters.

What I meant was that it made Trump from normal regular white man evil to monster-level evil, that's all. From a rational business rich-guy perspective, Trump entering politics never made sense. I mean yeah his taxes are bad and he's used the office to grease his wheels but even if the bill came due, the IRS being understaffed and under-resourced would not have been able to do much against him. A pragmatic evil guy like the Kochs, the Murdochs, the Sacklers wouldn't do that.

Only a monster-level personally radicalized evil guy could do it.

I've heard that the operating theory about Trump's entry into politics was that he wanted to leverage the publicity of a presidential run into a new reality show. But that plan went sideways after he won the election, something I doubt even HE saw coming. From there, Trump surrounded himself with some true monsters like Stephen Miller and Steven Bannon, and once he got that taste of the power that came from being Leader of the Free World, Trump, a clownish, egomaniacal carnival barker few took seriously became a monster himself.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

I've heard that the operating theory about Trump's entry into politics was that he wanted to leverage the publicity of a presidential run into a new reality show.

I think Trump was winging it, and at different times told people whatever they wanted to hear or suspect about it. People who were like "so you're seriously running for President" and who Trump needs to give a somewhat real answer would get something like this is a hustle for a new reality show or to go with the business to make it sound like he was pragmatic. Trump acts on impulse and instinct, and he's so rich and enabled that his impulsive and instinctive reaches take him further and land him softer than people who impulse purchase cars during their midlife crises. He genuinely likes the rallies and firing up the crowd, that much is obvious so I think deep down...pathetic as this is...Trump was in it for the attention and for the cheers. Trump is one of those guys who more or less cares more for fame than fortune, or more precisely someone who sees fortune as a means of acquiring fame, rather than the other way around. So I think Trump entered the election of 2016 as a lark to see how far he can go and push it, and then as he continued going forward he went further and further down.

I don't think anyone had any grand plan or scheme going in. And it's a mistake to make what was in fact a complete fluke and accident, a garish glitch in the system of US society, as something that was motivated by any real purpose. 2016 and Trump's presidency is a totally nihilistic incident, utterly without purpose or any deeper meaning. Like sure Putin and his hackers in Russia interfered in the 2016 election with soc.media disinformation and so on, whether that was decisive or not is unclear. But did Putin intentionally know going in that Trump was a viable candidate or a way of putting his agent in the WH...if asked I am sure Putin would make people assume that but I think he was as blindsided and surprised as anyone.

From there, Trump surrounded himself with some true monsters like Stephen Miller and Steven Bannon, and once he got that taste of the power that came from being Leader of the Free World, Trump, a clownish, egomaniacal carnival barker few took seriously became a monster himself.

Bannon is a f--king clown and poseur, Miller was the true evil genius (also Jared Kushner, a guy who's completely cynical and a total oligarch). Miller understood how power worked and institutions worked and how Trump worked, and he basically managed to put lasting institutional damage through Trump by being in the shadows, out of spotlight and slipping in what he wanted by being on the right side of his ego. Whereas Bannon started getting high of his supply and believed that he was a true mastermind or Svengali or whatnot, when he was in fact an useful tool for the really powerful people. Bannon was a complete distraction for left-watchers of Trumpworld. People on the left spent more time thinking and writing about Bannon than anyone inside the right-wing ever did.

[numberthirty]

There's been several criminal investigations on trump though, and he's still running around free.

Past that...

Take the political component out of the equation almost entirely.

Step back for a second, and take a look at the forest and not just the trees.

- How much of it could be just an AG looking to keep their name in the press in their own interest?

- How many times were there instances that should have been a lock on someone just being charged, and it never happened?

- In instances where someone who was charged was tried and a conviction should have been a lock, how many times did someone beat a charge anyway?

[numberthirty]

Now...

Add in the political.

Let's say they wind up with something that they can actually charge Trump himself on.

If it is anything less than a sure thing, is it really worth rolling the dice on something where this guy is found anything except "Guilty..." and he can talk about how everything from the jump has been one long witch hunt?

[babyblob]

To be honest it does not matter how many investigations into Trump there are. he will never sit one day in jail. And anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves because they want ti so bad.

If charges are brought it will most likely be a financial or white collar crime. He will get arrested go to the jail be finger printed and photographed and be released on bail. if he has to stay the night in jail he will have a private cell and I am sure there will be many officials making things cozy for him before he is released the next day on bail.

Then there is all the pretrial stuff. What evidence can be included, what witnesses, where the trial will be held (even though they fail like 9 times out of ten a good lawyer will file a change of venue as a cheap delaying tactic) etc.. That will take a very long time. Then if he is convicted there will be the endless appeals where I am sure his bail will be extended. His lawyers (paid for by fundraisers based on this being a witch hunt and his supporters will give in droves) Will delay and delay and delay. And he will live well once again based on money from supporters. And the fact that I dont see many judges no matter what side of the ilse they fall on being the judge who sent a president to prison.

With Trumps age and Health he will die before going to prison.

[babyblob]

If charge facing Trump does ever go to trial the best thing for him is a jury trial. Because any Republican will vote to acquit. So hung jury at best. Which means the whole process has to start again and that will take more time. No charge no matter how serious no matter what the evidence Trump will never be found guilty and he will never go to prison.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

There's value in justice even beyond seeing the Hamburglar go to jail, y'all.

Trump is severely weakened because he lost and drove away lawyers like Michael Cohen (who for all his fixing and craven-ness was a capable corporate-civil shark) and has to rely on Rudy Giuliani and who knows who else. No valid lawyer of real credibility will come within a ten foot pole of a guy they know doesn't pay well, on time, and who will guaranteed to have you do crimes for him and leave you holding the bag. The only legal guy of skill they might get is Alan Dershowitz, the American Jacques Verges and even that's not gonna help because dude's a wild-card and not really on anyone's side.

Charges brought against Trump might bounce off him but it will unveil and reveal more stuff about his organisation and the very least make some people sweat and turn against him, you know death-of-a-thousand-cuts. If we don't get Trump behind bars, we might get Giuliani, we might make Jared and Ivanka lose some money, heck even give some of them sleepless nights.

Basically this clip from Batman the Animated Series:

[babyblob]

I get that idea but the only people who will turn away from him are people who are some what on the fence now. There is no dies hard who will leave no matter what. he may lose a few but not enough to make a huge impact to him. I dont think he will hold office again but his supporters are not going any where. neither are the people who use them. And Trump 2.0 is going to pop up sooner rather then later. Some one who feels the way Trump does but is smart enough to use it to their full advantage.

Do you think Trump gives a shit if Rudy goes to jail? Even if Rudy does go to jail it will be a story for a couple weeks tops and become yesterdays news. Trump I doubt will care if his Son in Law goes to jail His daughter. That is the only one he will care about. But that will make him more angry and rant even more (If that is possible) and it will fire up his people even more.

Im just a cynic on this whole the end of Trump he will get his in the end type talk.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

There's value in justice even beyond seeing the Hamburglar go to jail, y'all.

Trump is severely weakened because he lost and drove away lawyers like Michael Cohen (who for all his fixing and craven-ness was a capable corporate-civil shark) and has to rely on Rudy Giuliani and who knows who else. No valid lawyer of real credibility will come within a ten foot pole of a guy they know doesn't pay well, on time, and who will guaranteed to have you do crimes for him and leave you holding the bag. The only legal guy of skill they might get is Alan Dershowitz, the American Jacques Verges and even that's not gonna help because dude's a wild-card and not really on anyone's side.

Charges brought against Trump might bounce off him but it will unveil and reveal more stuff about his organisation and the very least make some people sweat and turn against him, you know death-of-a-thousand-cuts. If we don't get Trump behind bars, we might get Giuliani, we might make Jared and Ivanka lose some money, heck even give some of them sleepless nights.

Basically this clip from Batman the Animated Series:

Well, there could be a right wing lawyer out there with means who might be willing to defend Trump pro bono, just for the prestige of defending a former president, or perhaps an ambulance chaser with a super PAC for a sugar daddy.

[babyblob]

He wont have problems finding a lawyer. I mean if there were charges. And not just a show trial impeachment. All he has to do is some fundraising and he will get loads of cash There are so many people who would sign over their rent checks to keep their god from going to jail.

[AnakinFlair]

I have no words.


‘I’m scared’: AP obtains video of deadly arrest of Black man

[CSTowle]

He has a solid intuition for evil. Trump is too stupid to understand and formulate stuff ideologically but intuitively he can sense who to turn, who he can bend, and who he can bully and control.



Exactly. That's what it's about. Trump intuitively shared the hatred some people felt when Obama became President. That success story, someone pulling up by his bootstraps and earning their way fair and square, triggered something strange in Trump.

The Trump-Obama rivalry, largely one sided on his part, is the most significant and politically consequential personal grudge in US History. 600,000 people died because of that. And this shows how arch-enemies in real-life are so different in fiction because Obama and Trump had no backstory, no history, and until Obama became President, neither was on the other's radar, and yet Trump advocated the sense of personal outrage and affront that so many White Americans felt when he put himself in the "Birther controversy" and that covered him in glory with the conservative base rather than ostracize him.

It upsets historians and sociologists and political pundits to think that something as simple as personal hatred or irrational hatred can have such world-historical consequences, and obviously Trump hating Obama wasn't a sufficient condition in itself, but the fact is that real life is absurd and sometimes when you have power and social media-access, a personal interior grudge can have those huge consequences.



Luckiest since Hitler, without a question. I've read Volker Ullrich's latest 2-Volume biography of Hitler and it's remarkable how much of his success came down to luck, and Hitler constantly saw himself as a gambler frequently telling people that "I was always willing to bet it all on a single card" and he constantly went all-in, though in his case it was Germany and his victims and the Western European order that he put on the roulette table, rather than himself personally.



I agree that I would be most surprised to see Trump in a suit matching his face at the end of all this, or if there is an end to all this. At the same time, that won't be because Trump is some genius conman or anything. It would be down to his luck not any real virtue he possesses.

The truth is that we need to stop seeing reality on the side of justice, goodness, reason and good faith. The deck was always stacked against us.

That's where I see the con man aspect, gambling (at least when it comes to cards and not so much roulette or slot machines) has a lot to do with timing, but also the ability to bullshit and above all confidence (see con man). Believing your own bullshit helps in that regard, and Trump definitely fits the bill. And, like Hitler, when the stakes you're gambling on are for others to pay (whether that's real estate debt you can declare bankruptcy on and move on to more loans, or the country's wealth/standing/relationship with allies/institutional norms/health and well-being of our most vulnerable citizens) it's a hell of a lot easier to double down. That's how you end up with half a million dead and a weakened US position in the world. Not overt evil, callous disregard and sociopathy.

Sadly I don't see any death by a thousand cuts. As babyblob said, his followers will see any real victories in the court room as persecution of their guy and political shenanigans. After all, it's what he would do. We saw everything he did in his four years in office and like Westphilly said he ended up with even more votes. I'd like to think that's not because he picked up support in the middle, but rather formerly on the fence right-wingers who were rightly embarrassed in '16 or skeptical of his conservative credentials and realized while he might not be a real conservative his presence in office was good for them in the courts and on tax day, but I don't know.

[Mister Mets]

He wont have problems finding a lawyer. I mean if there were charges. And not just a show trial impeachment. All he has to do is some fundraising and he will get loads of cash There are so many people who would sign over their rent checks to keep their god from going to jail.

Yep. The lawyers would also get exposure that can help them politically. Defending Trump can you get you on Fox News, or can help win a red district Republican primary.

It's very telling that the response the folks who lean to the right in this thread have to Trump and the Trump Org being potentially criminally charged is, "Yeah, so we keep hearing, we'll believe it when they do something..."

But not in any way do they argue that he's not actually a criminal or the charges are false.

It's almost like they have no problem with the standard bearer of the GQP being a wanton felon.

Ken White is a former prosecutor who cohosts the KCRW show All the President's Lawyers, about Donald Trump's legal issues and the political implications.

I came across his observation that people excited about the New York state attorney general's office announcement might be getting ahead of their skis. We should be able to evaluate that question on the merits. I can understand factoring in his reputation as well. For example, does his background suggest that he knows what he's talking about? Is he a fan of Trump who might be engaging in wishful thinking?

The discussion should not be seen as a proxy for whether someone likes Trump, or his role in the GOP. That attitude is dangerous, as it discourages honest discussion, which can lead to your side not being able to strategize effectively.

[godisawesome]

While I’m still cynical and pessimistic that 10 GOP Senators will approve the Jan. 6 commission, that’s partially because I think the 35 GOP Reps who broke ranks to vote for it is likely more a reflection of Kevin McCarthy bungling his job as Minority Leader in the House.

McCarthy is swiftly becoming an inconstant leader who lacks even the cunning to keep his inconstancy hidden; probably more than one rep who would have quietly supported his move against the commission if he kept it quiet or ordered Katko to torpedo it in committee felt compelled to vote for the commission because the way McCarthy let it unfold is a liability to them in some way.