All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[babyblob]

I am sorry to the people of the board I let my anger get the better of me.

[Xheight]

As for NJ, I'm at a total loss. I have no idea what's going on there. Even if Murphy wins, there needs to be a SERIOUS inquisition as to why the vote was this close.

I think our very own Tina posted a link about how great NJ is, NOT. There is a reason why the state is in the top 5 year after year in people moving out of state.

[Xheight]

I am sorry to the people of the board I let my anger get the better of me.

all good blob.

[JB]

I am sorry to the people of the board I let my anger get the better of me.

That's appreciated. I'm sure most of us are weary of fighting. Our country is dealing with a lot of problems at once and regardless of political views, we're all in this boat together.

I think our very own Tina posted a link about how great NJ is, NOT. There is a reason why the state is in the top 5 year after year in people moving out of state.

I'm one of them as I couldn't take the crushing taxes anymore nor the crumbling infrastructure.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Given how Tami pointed out the low turnout in New Jersey and how apathy led many Democrats to not show up. In a lot of cases many likely had no clue there was elections in 2021 as well. So this is what we saw play out.

But this isn't to blast anyone here or anything negative. But it seems the world for 2-3 weeks leading into the election situation was more worried about Dave Chappelle. That instead of focusing on a man who could really do some bad things in charge of Virginia as Governor to trans community etc ...a lot was dedicated time wise to a stand up comedian. All the major press , twitter and world seemed to hang more on Dave Chappelle and what he said in The Closer than a man who will be at a position of power in state government.

Its one of those , one guy isn't in a position of power to do something but the other guy is. And the focus wasn't there. I didn't even know a Virginian election was taking place in 2021. That tells you how distracted even I was by this.

[TheDarman]

I think it is important to remember context around these things. For one thing, there are always weird elections heading into the off-year after a presidential election.

Think Alabama in 2017 which elected Doug Jones as the first statewide Democrat to win there in ages. Think Massachusetts in 2010, where Scott Brown won a Senate seat as a Republican. Heck, even keeping it to just New Jersey and Virginia, these are gubernatorial races that have flipped against the party that controls the White House consistently since the 1980s.

In 2009, Virginia flipped to the Republican gubernatorial candidate from Obama's margin by 22 percent. That same date, New Jersey flipped twenty points towards Chris Christie, a circumstance that we can thank for our perpetual horror at having to see him on political talk shows. Even in 2013, when McAuliffe won the first time and after Obama carried his state the year prior, he won with a smaller share of the overall vote than he got this time losing--the Libertarian carried away a lot of Republican votes.

Additionally, gubernatorial races are weird. We have Democrats in control of Kansas and Kentucky. Republicans are governors of Massachusetts and Maryland. Perhaps the thing that is alarming is that Youngkin played footsie with Trump, but, even then, the media ran pretty consistent interference for Youngkin and claimed that he wasn't embracing Trump.

Frankly, Democrats should perhaps be a bit encouraged that the margins that Republicans can be successful in Virginia in these kinds of elections is shrinking: Youngkin is only going to win this race by less than two percent when all is said and done. And it was an eleven point swing towards Republicans from last election--half of what the swing was in 2009. I'd guess that New Jersey will be pretty close to half as well once all votes are counted.

Now, 2009 is not a great indicator for Democrats. They went on to lose almost 60 seats in the House the following year, plunging them into a twenty seat minority after having a pretty large majority. The House margins are slimmer this time so it seems unlikely Democrats will lose even close to the same number, especially given the effects of polarization. But they were always underdogs for retaining the House. I see nothing about this data that seems to suggest that that has changed, for better or for worse frankly. They lost six seats in the Senate.

Again, it seems unlikely that will happen this time, but Democrats two best pick-up opportunities are in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2020. It seems unlikely that Democrats will be able to outperform their margin there. Biden won Pennsylvania by just over a percent. Again, even a fraction of the shift seen last night towards Republicans will maintain their hold on that seat. Georgia and Arizona could be problematic for Democratic incumbents, given their victories were also closer than the swings we saw towards Republicans last night.

The only thing that can be said is that the economy is recovering faster than it was in 2009. The souring on Democrats that occurred as a result of economic conditions probably will not happen to the same degree. Afghanistan's withdrawal will fade from the public conscience as more time goes on. The Build Back Better Act is more popular, in both its component parts and overall, than the Affordable Care Act was. If Democrats deliver legislation, they may not be able to control the factors that have remained outside their control, but the hope is that with the improvement of those factors and a promise to expand the benefits they passed already, they can outperform mid-term slumps.

[numberthirty]

I am not a registered GOP so maybe I just care about Democracy.

Maybe not...

[thwhtGuardian]

As someone who is mostly centrist, I have to say that's a lot of name-calling and mud-slinging. Xheight didn't do any of that.

He's put forth one crazy GQP talkimg point and conspiracy after the next...he's literally done everything blob said there.

[JB]

He's put forth one crazy GQP talkimg point and conspiracy after the next...he's literally done everything blob said there.

I was referring mostly to the name-calling and babyblob apologized to the board for that which is very admirable and appreciated.

[babyblob]

Edited. I couldnt phrase what I wanted the right way.

[JB]

I think it is important to remember context around these things. For one thing, there are always weird elections heading into the off-year after a presidential election.

Think Alabama in 2017 which elected Doug Jones as the first statewide Democrat to win there in ages. Think Massachusetts in 2010, where Scott Brown won a Senate seat as a Republican. Heck, even keeping it to just New Jersey and Virginia, these are gubernatorial races that have flipped against the party that controls the White House consistently since the 1980s.

In 2009, Virginia flipped to the Republican gubernatorial candidate from Obama's margin by 22 percent. That same date, New Jersey flipped twenty points towards Chris Christie, a circumstance that we can thank for our perpetual horror at having to see him on political talk shows. Even in 2013, when McAuliffe won the first time and after Obama carried his state the year prior, he won with a smaller share of the overall vote than he got this time losing--the Libertarian carried away a lot of Republican votes.

Additionally, gubernatorial races are weird. We have Democrats in control of Kansas and Kentucky. Republicans are governors of Massachusetts and Maryland. Perhaps the thing that is alarming is that Youngkin played footsie with Trump, but, even then, the media ran pretty consistent interference for Youngkin and claimed that he wasn't embracing Trump.

Frankly, Democrats should perhaps be a bit encouraged that the margins that Republicans can be successful in Virginia in these kinds of elections is shrinking: Youngkin is only going to win this race by less than two percent when all is said and done. And it was an eleven point swing towards Republicans from last election--half of what the swing was in 2009. I'd guess that New Jersey will be pretty close to half as well once all votes are counted.

Now, 2009 is not a great indicator for Democrats. They went on to lose almost 60 seats in the House the following year, plunging them into a twenty seat minority after having a pretty large majority. The House margins are slimmer this time so it seems unlikely Democrats will lose even close to the same number, especially given the effects of polarization. But they were always underdogs for retaining the House. I see nothing about this data that seems to suggest that that has changed, for better or for worse frankly. They lost six seats in the Senate.

Again, it seems unlikely that will happen this time, but Democrats two best pick-up opportunities are in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2020. It seems unlikely that Democrats will be able to outperform their margin there. Biden won Pennsylvania by just over a percent. Again, even a fraction of the shift seen last night towards Republicans will maintain their hold on that seat. Georgia and Arizona could be problematic for Democratic incumbents, given their victories were also closer than the swings we saw towards Republicans last night.

The only thing that can be said is that the economy is recovering faster than it was in 2009. The souring on Democrats that occurred as a result of economic conditions probably will not happen to the same degree. Afghanistan's withdrawal will fade from the public conscience as more time goes on. The Build Back Better Act is more popular, in both its component parts and overall, than the Affordable Care Act was. If Democrats deliver legislation, they may not be able to control the factors that have remained outside their control, but the hope is that with the improvement of those factors and a promise to expand the benefits they passed already, they can outperform mid-term slumps.

Very well said. The media has a habit of polarizing everything but as you mentioned there are Dem governors in the south and Rep governors in the northeast. Virginia has switched back and forth many times over the years. I reside in a purple county, almost 50/50, and it's surprisingly peaceful despite such opposite political leanings of the people here.

[Mister Mets]

Well remember that GOP voters didn't seem so motivated when it was their guy in the WH. It would make sense if GOP beat off anti-incumbency more than the Dems did but mostly anti-incumbency animates both parties.

It's just that there's more at stake these days if GOP gets in power owing to them becoming a semi-fascist party.

In 2018, Republican turnout was pretty high for midterms.

Democrats had even better turnout, but independent voters also swung their way compared to 2016.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-isnt-enough/

You have to look at why Democrat voters are not turning out. The people of NJ (where I lived for many years) are tired of having some of the highest taxes in the country, especially when there are larger states with bigger expenses but no state income tax.
This is in part why a Dem Governor has not been re-elected in 44 years in NJ.

Murphy’s unemployment debacle last year and having some of the worst pandemic numbers in the country are big issues. Sweeping policy changes have to happen to get Dem voters out to vote in the numbers needed.

EDIT: It’s now being reported that a recount might have to happen. Wow.

This had pretty high turnout for an off-year election. Murphy got more votes this time than when he won easily in 2017.

In Virginia, McAuliffe got 200,000 more votes than Northam did in '17.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...69313060495361

The idea that the most popular Democratic governor, or governor from either party in polls around the country is going to barely win re-election in a state that leans blue is f***ing bonkers. Especially when his competition is a cretin like Ciatterelli.

I don't think Murphy is the most popular Governor. His numbers were respectable, but not on the level of Larry Hogan of Maryland, Phil Scott of Vermont, or Charlie Baker of Massachusetts.

https://whyy.org/articles/new-jersey...roval-ratings/

[JCAll]

As someone who is mostly centrist, I have to say that's a lot of name-calling and mud-slinging. Xheight didn't do any of that.

Literally called me a bigot the other day over some 2016 nonsense, so nobody's above a little mudslinging.

[babyblob]

He's put forth one crazy GQP talkimg point and conspiracy after the next...he's literally done everything blob said there.

Literally called me a bigot the other day over some 2016 nonsense, so nobody's above a little mudslinging.

The fact is we have a party and members of that party who spread lies about our elections, about a vaccine and those lies have cost lives, can storm the capital and the the law makers of that party can ignore that try and cover it up and call those people heroes, pass anti LTGB laws, pass voter restriction laws, block and kind of meaningful police reform because that may hint that some cops are racist and bad, and all of that is okay. but those same people can not be called any names because we have to take the high road.

Hell the big orange monster called Immigrants drug dealing rapists on national tv and his cult cheered!

I am sorry I let my anger get the better of me and will try harder in the future. But the kind of idea that mudslinging is beyond the pale while the GOP is pulling their crap is the take the high BS that have gotten the country in the shape it is. And why the GOP keeps getting away with things.

There is a guy in VA that won based on Anti Trans talk, fear tactics on CRT, and how we live in a terrible world with no free choice because of masks. And even though he won Several GOP memebers and voters are still talking fraud because the Dem got as many votes as he did. Yet we have to play nice,.

End of rant.

[TheDarman]

Very well said. The media has a habit of polarizing everything but as you mentioned there are Dem governors in the south and Rep governors in the northeast. Virginia has switched back and forth many times over the years. I reside in a purple county, almost 50/50, and it's surprisingly peaceful despite such opposite political leanings of the people here.

This isn't to say that the national environment for Democrats is good, just that it isn't like the sky is falling. Sometimes you lose elections. Sometimes they're in places you thought were safer than they were. The only thing you can do now is to pick yourself up and try to encourage more people to not let something like what happened in Virginia happen in the next election.

Also an important point I forgot to mention in the above post:

Obama had a +10 approval rating in November of 2009 when Democrats lost both gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
Biden currently has a -11 approval rating as Democrats lost the Virginia gubernatorial race and won the New Jersey one.

Democrats overperforming their president's approval in both races is a new thing. Generally, they vastly underperform it. This might be a good sign for Democrats that they should really focus on boosting Biden. Because even an increase back up to a +2 approval could pay huge dividends for them and limit their losses ahead of 2022.