All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Doesn't being a Lobbyist mean you have to actually have a few friends in government? People who are your connections, who can help you broker deals on behalf of your clients?

Hmm! You have a point. I hadn’t considered that. I have no idea if Sinema has actual friends in, or out of government. Perhaps WBE can enlighten us on that.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Most likely, I think Sinema leaves Congress and takes on a gig on some company as a member of the board with stock options and so on.

[Mister Mets]

I don't think they'll sit on it. The hope, though, is that the Biden Administration is largely successful by this time next year in getting those people out.

Additionally, it is important for Democrats to be pointing out that these citizens were told they should probably leave, but many of those who were left were dual citizens who had more of a connection to the country than they do to the U.S. and wanted to stay and fight. It didn't work out and they wanted to leave. This led to one of the largest humanitarian missions the U.S. military has ever successfully conducted. It's time to engage on the issue and point out that Biden's response was hardly a debacle and doesn't even begin to resemble Reagan's response to Beirut's Barrack Bombing.

I'm sure campaign ads will include all the optimistic statements by the Biden administration that muddied the warnings.

There will also be sympathetic people who stuck around in Afghanistan trying to help their loved ones who might not be targeted by the Taliban.

I am beginning to wonder if Joe Biden is more likely a lackey of the Democratic Party or a figurehead. Speaker Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are probably the true leaders of the party.

the Democratic Party has become too big and has many factions such as progressives, the liberals, the moderates and the conservatives including the Senators Manchin and Sinema.

There is the argument that Congress is supposed to be in charge.

The other view is that there are three co-equal branches, in which case Pelosi and Schumer should be as powerful as Biden, because it's his job to enforce laws they pass.

my aunt always goes on about Biden being a figure head. If there are people pulling the strings they are doing a shitty job. The people pulling the strings put forth a bill that can get passed and has been gutted. So the real power cant get anything done? What kind of power are they?

I don't think Biden is a figurehead, but the President's power is limited. He's not a prime minister.

They definitely need some fresh blood out there as well because career politicians have long lost their appeal. We're seeing more people get elected that don't have much political history if at all, and that's appealing to voters these days.

I wonder if part of the reason midterms go badly for the President's party is that the pool of candidates is going to initially be weaker because of all the people who have to staff the presidential administration.

The ranks of the 98 US Attorneys, their deputies, the ambassadors, cabinet undersecretaries, and others will include people who can be plausible candidates for congressional and statewide office.

[Mister Mets]

Doesn't being a Lobbyist mean you have to actually have a few friends in government? People who are your connections, who can help you broker deals on behalf of your clients?

There is a rumor that a few Senate Democrats like for taking the heat off of them when it comes to unpopular legislation. So she might have them as friends.

But I do agree she would be more effective as a lobbyist if the base liked her, so the argument she's in it for the money doesn't make much sense as she could make money as a base favorite.

But it will also be a Presidential election year, so Biden (or whoever is running on the Democratic ticket) can work with a candidate to defeat Sinema in a primary and then run against whoever the Republicans prop up for the general election.

Do you think this would play well with swing voters?

There have been times when Presidents supported challengers to members of their own party. The Nixon administration worked behind the scenes to get James Buckley (brother of National Review founder William F. Buckley) elected to the Senate on the Conservative party ticket over a moderate Republican incumbent. Trump has been open about supporting primaries of any Republicans who criticize him. I'm not sure this fits Biden's brand, or the image any Democratic candidate for President wishes to convey.

It's not like that sentence hasn't been ominous or anything since the Archduke got whacked.



AZ elections will be weird. Mark Kelly is up for election next year. Sinema in 2024. If Sinema's on the ballot, the Dems will lose thanks to low turnout. As it is, Kelly is in a difficult situation next year because opponents will do their best to tie him to Sinema.



Pramilla Jayapal, who I respect a lot, is getting the kudos for the Infrastructure bill, and at least I'm glad that she's taking the "W" political capital out of this. Apparently Biden called her mother from India after the bill was passed, which is really touching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8NbRxiXbz0

This is a nice article laying out the complex political shenanigans behind the House stuff yesterday.

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com...-for-democrats

I'm curious how Kelly's opponents would tie him to Sinema.

There's no interest in a primary against him. So Republicans would need to go with a general election message that he'll disappoint progressives, which would have a different impact on swing voters and potentially discourage soft Republicans from turning out.

As for Sinema dragging the presidential ticket in 2024, downticket momentum affecting a state's national ticket rarely occurs (maybe the Virginia Senate race in 2008)

It wasn't that they were opposed to it. It was that they (wrongly) believed that by effectively holding this bill hostage, they could force Manchin and Sinema to pass the reconciliation package in the Senate. They never accepted the fact that Manchin and Sinema were just fine with passing nothing.

It seems to be like a kid throwing a tantrum because he wants an ice cream sundae and pizza, and being upset that he's only promised pizza.

A more high-minded version, before anyone makes the argument that the purpose of the bills is to help others, would be preventing people from having one form of aide because you want them to have two. It's the perfect being the enemy of the good.

The commission and funding for the dossier originated with wealthy, never-Trump Republicans and was supplemented with funds from the Clinton campaign.

The FBI never concluded the dossier was legit or included it as official evidence in any investigation of Trump due to its inability to be verified and the dubious nature of its origin.
They did feel responsible since they had it in their possession to notify Trump of its existence and the sensitive, possibly damaging information it contained.
They did consider it grounds for an investigation because to not do so wouldn't be fulfilling their obligation towards national security.
The investigation started by Comey and finished by Mueller led to evidence of dealings between Russia and the Trump campaign and instances of attempted obstruction by Trump of the investigation itself.

I'm not sure why this is an indictment of Democrats in general or the current administration.

It seems to be an indictment of Trump's detractors, a group that includes Democrats in general as well as the current administration, especially in the context of how current arguments about how Trump is beyond the pale for dishonesty. His opponents seem to have benefitted from dishonesty.

[Jack Dracula]

There's a lot that didn't get did...

While it's better than nothing?

I ain't throwing a party for a kid that came home with a C minus.

Nobody’s asking you to throw a party. They’re saying quit brow-beating the kid for not getting straight A’s when you know there are problems at home.

[AnakinFlair]

There have been times when Presidents supported challengers to members of their own party. The Nixon administration worked behind the scenes to get James Buckley (brother of National Review founder William F. Buckley) elected to the Senate on the Conservative party ticket over a moderate Republican incumbent. Trump has been open about supporting primaries of any Republicans who criticize him. I'm not sure this fits Biden's brand, or the image any Democratic candidate for President wishes to convey.

I think this may be a special case for Biden, though. I think the Democrat base is so sick of Sinema and Manchin's antics, that they would welcome Biden supporting a challenger against either of them. I don't believe that Biden would support someone against Manchin, but I'm sure he'd love to support someone against Sinema.

[Tendrin]

Dems need to learn to celebrate even small victories when they happen. If you act like even a small win is a loss, you're just acting like a loser, and that's absolutely giving yourself a kiss of death politically.

[Jack Dracula]

There is a rumor that a few Senate Democrats like for taking the heat off of them when it comes to unpopular legislation. So she might have them as friends.

But I do agree she would be more effective as a lobbyist if the base liked her, so the argument she's in it for the money doesn't make much sense as she could make money as a base favorite.

Do you think this would play well with swing voters?

There have been times when Presidents supported challengers to members of their own party. The Nixon administration worked behind the scenes to get James Buckley (brother of National Review founder William F. Buckley) elected to the Senate on the Conservative party ticket over a moderate Republican incumbent. Trump has been open about supporting primaries of any Republicans who criticize him. I'm not sure this fits Biden's brand, or the image any Democratic candidate for President wishes to convey.

I'm curious how Kelly's opponents would tie him to Sinema.

There's no interest in a primary against him. So Republicans would need to go with a general election message that he'll disappoint progressives, which would have a different impact on swing voters and potentially discourage soft Republicans from turning out.

As for Sinema dragging the presidential ticket in 2024, downticket momentum affecting a state's national ticket rarely occurs (maybe the Virginia Senate race in 2008)

It seems to be like a kid throwing a tantrum because he wants an ice cream sundae and pizza, and being upset that he's only promised pizza.

A more high-minded version, before anyone makes the argument that the purpose of the bills is to help others, would be preventing people from having one form of aide because you want them to have two. It's the perfect being the enemy of the good.

It seems to be an indictment of Trump's detractors, a group that includes Democrats in general as well as the current administration, especially in the context of how current arguments about how Trump is beyond the pale for dishonesty. His opponents seem to have benefitted from dishonesty.

Nobody but Steele benefitted from the dossier. Trump won the election and was permitted to finish his term while remaining eligible for reelection in 2024. If Senate Republicans had moral and ethical standards they would have pressured him to resign after his impeachment. Instead they defended him, so in the end Trump benefitted from their dishonesty.

[worstblogever]

Hmm! You have a point. I hadn’t considered that. I have no idea if Sinema has actual friends in, or out of government. Perhaps WBE can enlighten us on that.

The only one that comes to mind is former Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskell, whose "moderate Dem" status got her to land a job as a contributor on MSNBC.

Sinema probably thinks she's photogenic enough for the same.

[Xheight]

Nobody but Steele benefitted from the dossier. Trump won the election and was permitted to finish his term while remaining eligible for reelection in 2024. If Senate Republicans had moral and ethical standards they would have pressured him to resign after his impeachment. Instead they defended him, so in the end Trump benefitted from their dishonesty.

It was perfectly honest to stop a political trial for a perfect phone call. Impeachments are predominantly a political weapon of consolidated power starting with Johnson. It is shame that the moral dimension has been trashed by politicians but they tend to do that.

[Xheight]

The commission and funding for the dossier originated with wealthy, never-Trump Republicans and was supplemented with funds from the Clinton campaign.

The FBI never concluded the dossier was legit or included it as official evidence in any investigation of Trump due to its inability to be verified and the dubious nature of its origin.
They did feel responsible since they had it in their possession to notify Trump of its existence and the sensitive, possibly damaging information it contained.
They did consider it grounds for an investigation because to not do so wouldn't be fulfilling their obligation towards national security.
The investigation started by Comey and finished by Mueller led to evidence of dealings between Russia and the Trump campaign and instances of attempted obstruction by Trump of the investigation itself.

I'm not sure why this is an indictment of Democrats in general or the current administration.

That would because the preponderance of Democrat power and influence is characterized by such oligarchical power in the DNC their machine politics and donor base it is why John Podestas have been a constant in recent history. The never-Trumpers look and act like Democrats in just about every way and can only be distinguished by the industries that support them.

[Xheight]

Yeah the economy's been making a quiet comeback for months.

As if the government can take credit for that. Of course they will but that doesn't particularly impact elections one way or the other if Americans feel that the government is getting out of the way of prosperity. BIF was bipartisan because if pays off special interest industries that put most of these people in office. The default position of country is to be optimistic if the hand of government is not seen. Only in the depths of the Depression was it possible to convince Americans that their hard work was NOT responsible for additive value.

[Gray Lensman]

Nobody but Steele benefitted from the dossier. Trump won the election and was permitted to finish his term while remaining eligible for reelection in 2024. If Senate Republicans had moral and ethical standards they would have pressured him to resign after his impeachment. Instead they defended him, so in the end Trump benefitted from their dishonesty.

The Steele dossier was always what is called "raw intelligence" which is the spying version of witness statements to police. You write them all down, but they won't always turn out to be true, even if they are honest statements from reliable sources. Which it seems the people Steele was getting stuff from weren't all honest.

However, the followers of a compulsive liar jumping on that as proof of perfidy are at best the pot calling the kettle black, but are probably closer to the black void from which even light can't escape complaining that something muddy isn't pure white.

[JB]

I wonder if part of the reason midterms go badly for the President's party is that the pool of candidates is going to initially be weaker because of all the people who have to staff the presidential administration.

The ranks of the 98 US Attorneys, their deputies, the ambassadors, cabinet undersecretaries, and others will include people who can be plausible candidates for congressional and statewide office.

Very good point. We do have some changes coming up for the midterms that could be beneficial with bringing in some new energy.

In terms of the House, Doyle, Price, and Yarmuth have announced retirement and none of their seats seem to be vulnerable.
Lamb, Demings, and Ryan are running for Senate seats. And Crist, Bass, and Brown are running for entirely different offices (mayor, governor, etc.)

[WestPhillyPunisher]

The only one that comes to mind is former Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskell, whose "moderate Dem" status got her to land a job as a contributor on MSNBC.

Sinema probably thinks she's photogenic enough for the same.

Well, seeing Krazy Krysten dressing up on the floor of the Capitol like a cosplayer at an anime convention, she’s straight up delusional.