All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[Johnathan]

I was responding to someone who believed the abortion rate would be the same if it were made illegal.

There would be several ways to gauge statistics, when comparing how often sometimes happens when it is legal and when it is illegal. You could use polls, which may be unreliable, and indirect measurements, like the percentage of women having children or the percentage of people hospitalized with side effects of particular substances.

For example, we could look at the amount of people dying from cirrhosis of the liver during prohibition compared to before and after. It does appear there was a significant increase.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...g-prohibition/

.

However there is a major question brought up by that chart - most of the decline in cirrhosis occurred before prohibition was enacted. So it is not a great indication that the illegalization was the cause of the decline. Also, the steepest increase begins again decades later.

Unfortunately, we don't have any conditions so directly correlated to abortions in the same way like cirrhosis to alcohol or lung cancer and disease to smoking. So, hospitalizations would really only indicate an increase in the number of people seeking unsafe abortions while actual illegal abortions would remain fairly opaque.

I can somewhat agree that there would likely be less abortions - though I don't think we'd ever be able to tell how much - but, as you seem to accept yourself, there almost certainly be more life-threatening consequences for an abortion ban. Possibly even leading to more deaths than legalizing abortion and supporting women's choices especially in the cases where they choose to have a child.

[Tami]

That's right. The bill hasn't passed. It hasn't even been voted on yet. But it is something to be concerned about.

The fact that it exists, even as possibility, is scary.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I havnt heard the names. Other then Bill Clinton and of course the Cliche Hunter Biden!

Let’s not forget Prince Andrew is also said to be another big name in the little black book of Epstein and, by extension, Maxwell.

[Tendrin]

Just a reminder, that this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_...a_Halappanavar

lead directly to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty...ion_of_Ireland

Naturally, this is one example of the reasons conservatives fight so hard to make sure people can't actually make themselves heard.

[Mister Mets]

I truly believe she was arrogant enough to think she would beat the charges. Now it’s very real and she can face up to 65 years in prison. So I think she’ll be naming names and the rumored names I’ve heard are major.

A big question I'd like to see answered is how Epstein made his money. As reporter Josh Barro wrote "His vast wealth — maybe Epstein isn’t the billionaire he’s often described as, but he’s at least worth hundreds of millions of dollars — seems wildly out of scale for a person who wasn’t born wealthy and did not leave a large footprint on Wall Street in terms of clients or counterparties."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019...exner-sue.html

If he became a multimillionaire through sex trafficking, there may be some big people implicated.

That's right. The bill hasn't passed. It hasn't even been voted on yet. But it is something to be concerned about.

I'm not sure. Backbenchers often propose stupid legislation. It doesn't mean anything will happen to it, especially when someone points out that it can be used to target books conservatives like, as well as the very popular books swing voters like.

However there is a major question brought up by that chart - most of the decline in cirrhosis occurred before prohibition was enacted. So it is not a great indication that the illegalization was the cause of the decline. Also, the steepest increase begins again decades later.

Unfortunately, we don't have any conditions so directly correlated to abortions in the same way like cirrhosis to alcohol or lung cancer and disease to smoking. So, hospitalizations would really only indicate an increase in the number of people seeking unsafe abortions while actual illegal abortions would remain fairly opaque.

I can somewhat agree that there would likely be less abortions - though I don't think we'd ever be able to tell how much - but, as you seem to accept yourself, there almost certainly be more life-threatening consequences for an abortion ban. Possibly even leading to more deaths than legalizing abortion and supporting women's choices especially in the cases where they choose to have a child.

As noted in the article, there was also a wartime prohibition during World War One which predated the 18th amendment. The purpose was to save grain for food.

https://www.theworldwar.org/learn/wwi/prohibition

There was a smaller decline prior to that with the temperance movement, in addition to some state and local governments passing dry laws.

[Mister Mets]

Let’s not forget Prince Andrew is also said to be another big name in the little black book of Epstein and, by extension, Maxwell.

The connection to Epstein was apparently one reason for Bill Gates' divorce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/16/b...e-epstein.html

And then there was Jeffrey Epstein, whom Mr. Gates got to know beginning in 2011, three years after Mr. Epstein, who faced accusations of sex trafficking of girls, pleaded guilty to soliciting prostitution from a minor. Ms. French Gates had expressed discomfort with her husband spending time with the sex offender, but Mr. Gates continued doing so, according to people who were at or briefed on gatherings with the two men.

So, in October 2019, when the relationship between Mr. Gates and Mr. Epstein burst into public view, Ms. French Gates was unhappy. She hired divorce lawyers, setting in motion a process that culminated this month with the announcement that their marriage was ending.

[JB]

Let’s not forget Prince Andrew is also said to be another big name in the little black book of Epstein and, by extension, Maxwell.

Exactly. Prince Andrew alone has a lot of implications as to who else may be connected.

A big question I'd like to see answered is how Epstein made his money. As reporter Josh Barro wrote "His vast wealth — maybe Epstein isn’t the billionaire he’s often described as, but he’s at least worth hundreds of millions of dollars — seems wildly out of scale for a person who wasn’t born wealthy and did not leave a large footprint on Wall Street in terms of clients or counterparties."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019...exner-sue.html

If he became a multimillionaire through sex trafficking, there may be some big people implicated.

Agreed. I firmly believe he made his money through trafficking. "Clients" sometimes pay tens of thousands of dollars, even hundreds of thousands, to "buy" a human being. We're talking about some very high net worth people.

[CSTowle]

While I love a good conspiracy theory and put myself firmly into the group who seriously doubts he committed suicide, I believe you don't need to be human trafficking to introduce teen/early 20s attractive young women to celebrities/politicians/wealthy men with promises of wealth or connections. I see it more as high-end prostitution, with perhaps a blackmail angle for some. Powerful and wealthy men are still men, and at the end of the day are wired to desire the same thing. If it can be done by someone they trust, out of the public eye, I have little doubt the Prince Andrews/Bill Clintons of the world would be arrogant enough to think it would never come out. Looks like it likely won't, in any seriously impactful way for them. And royals/politicians (especially the Clintons) are no strangers to rumor/innuendo/bad press.

[JB]

While I love a good conspiracy theory and put myself firmly into the group who seriously doubts he committed suicide, I believe you don't need to be human trafficking to introduce teen/early 20s attractive young women to celebrities/politicians/wealthy men with promises of wealth or connections. I see it more as high-end prostitution, with perhaps a blackmail angle for some. Powerful and wealthy men are still men, and at the end of the day are wired to desire the same thing. If it can be done by someone they trust, out of the public eye, I have little doubt the Prince Andrews/Bill Clintons of the world would be arrogant enough to think it would never come out. Looks like it likely won't, in any seriously impactful way for them. And royals/politicians (especially the Clintons) are no strangers to rumor/innuendo/bad press.

Hundreds of children have been rescued and thousands of trafficking criminals have been arrested this year. The Trafficking Victims Protection Act is very much active right now which Biden has thankfully continued. 5 teen trafficking victims were announced rescued in New Orleans yesterday. It's very real. But whether or not high profile people will be uncovered only time with tell. Maxwell has said if she's found guilty she'll give up names to make a deal.

A second CNN producer resigned this week as he's under investigation for sex crimes against children. Two accused within two weeks.

[JackDaw]

I truly believe she was arrogant enough to think she would beat the charges. Now it’s very real and she can face up to 65 years in prison. So I think she’ll be naming names and the rumored names I’ve heard are major.

The Maxwell family has good form for evading seemingly cast iron legal cases….so maybe deep down thought employing super expensive lawyers would work the oracle.

Must admit for large part of the trial thought the family luck would strike again and she’d walk free. And given the Maxwell chutzpah would probably sue for damages.

There’s still appeals to be made, I suppose?

[Gray Lensman]

While I love a good conspiracy theory and put myself firmly into the group who seriously doubts he committed suicide, I believe you don't need to be human trafficking to introduce teen/early 20s attractive young women to celebrities/politicians/wealthy men with promises of wealth or connections. I see it more as high-end prostitution, with perhaps a blackmail angle for some. Powerful and wealthy men are still men, and at the end of the day are wired to desire the same thing. If it can be done by someone they trust, out of the public eye, I have little doubt the Prince Andrews/Bill Clintons of the world would be arrogant enough to think it would never come out. Looks like it likely won't, in any seriously impactful way for them. And royals/politicians (especially the Clintons) are no strangers to rumor/innuendo/bad press.

Epstein managed to find the time before he died to hide his assets from attempts to sue his estate - if he was killed he was given ample warning.

[numberthirty]

Epstein managed to find the time before he died to hide his assets from attempts to sue his estate - if he was killed he was given ample warning.

Politely?

Nah...

Anyone even remotely liked that guy probably had the "When Things Eventually Go Sideways..." scenario gamed out to the third decimal place.

[Madam-Shogun-Assassin]

With Maxwell's trial what you see is what you get imo. I think people just want it to go away.

[CaptainEurope]

Not necessarily.

The people who take global warming most seriously believe it is an existential threat, that if we do not handle it immediately mankind will go extinct from it. If this were the case, anything would have to be on the table, because the alternative is so terrible.

You can believe that a policy will have bad consequences, but that it is worth the tradeoff.

So, how many women dying of unsafe abortions to lower the global temperature by one degree would you find acceptable? Is there a limit? Would a million women be too much?

[CaptainEurope]

I truly believe she was arrogant enough to think she would beat the charges. Now it’s very real and she can face up to 65 years in prison. So I think she’ll be naming names and the rumored names I’ve heard are major.

Forgive my ignorance of the US legal system here, but isn't it too late now? Wouldn't one make a deal before one is found guilty by a jury of one's peers? So that the DA can bring lesser charges that carry milder sentences?