All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[4saken1]

Saw a video on Twitter this morning. Apparently the Russians are running out of gas for their armored vehicles. The video I saw was a Ukrainian man stopping next to a tank, asking the troops if they wanted a ride back to Russia.

Also hearing that civilians are putting sugar into gas cans, because Russians are scrounging for gas for their vehicles.

Here is a link to that video on Twitter.

I imagine Putin will instruct his soldiers to open fire on individuals who do these kind of things henceforth rather than suffer public embarrassment.

[Johnathan]

It does seem like a completely confused invasion. I'm not really sure what the Russian soldiers have been informed but it seems like they aren't exactly sure why they are actually fighting in Ukraine. I think the Russian soldiers were told that they were being assembled for military exercises and then sent into Ukraine without really understanding they would actually be fighting and against a formidable and motivated defensive force on their own home territory.

It reminds me of the confusion Celine described in his first battle of WW1 in Journey to the End of Night.

Down the road, way in the distance, as far as we could see, there were two black dots, plunk in the middle
like us, but they were two Germans and they'd been busy shooting for the last fifteen or twenty minutes.
Maybe our colonel knew why they were shooting, maybe the Germans knew, but I, so help me, hadn't the
vaguest idea. As far back as I could search my memory, I hadn't done a thing to the Germans, I'd always
treated them friendly and polite. I knew the Germans pretty well, I'd even gone to school in their country
when I was little, near Hanover. I'd spoken their language. A bunch of loudmouthed little halfwits, that's
what they were, with pale, furtive eyes like wolves; we'd go out to the woods together after school to feel
the girls up, or we'd fire popguns or pistols you could buy for four marks. And we drank sugary beer
together. But from that to shooting at us right in the middle of the road, without so much as a word of
introduction, was a long way, a very long way. If you asked me, they were going too far.
This war, in fact, made no sense at all. It couldn't go on.


Even if the Russian grunts knew they would be at war, I imagine they expected more support in Ukraine from pro-Russian Ukrainians due to all the propaganda. Not so much absolute resistance from a Ukrainian military that's been pressurized under intense conflict since 2014 and now backed by richer Western Nations. Russia's economy is roughly the size of Spain and its significance is in its petrochemical resources and nuclear weapons - but everyone pretty much has nukes now and fossil fuels aren't as influential as they once were.

How experienced in actual combat are the majority of Russian soldiers? I doubt many of them are veterans of the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 which also didn't go as well as the Russian leaders wanted - nor veterans of Chechnya much longer ago.

Putin's reactions and statements seem chaotic. They don't seem to be the acts of this "genius" real-life supervillain that the media's portrayed. Even stories in the state-controlled Russian media seem to imply that his actions are essentially strengthening the United States and NATO.

[Tami]

It does seem like a completely confused invasion. I'm not really sure what the Russian soldiers have been informed but it seems like they aren't exactly sure why they are actually fighting in Ukraine. I think the Russian soldiers were told that they were being assembled for military exercises and then sent into Ukraine without really understanding they would actually be fighting and against a formidable and motivated defensive force on their own home territory.

It reminds me of the confusion Celine described in his first battle of WW1 in Journey to the End of Night.

Down the road, way in the distance, as far as we could see, there were two black dots, plunk in the middle
like us, but they were two Germans and they'd been busy shooting for the last fifteen or twenty minutes.
Maybe our colonel knew why they were shooting, maybe the Germans knew, but I, so help me, hadn't the
vaguest idea. As far back as I could search my memory, I hadn't done a thing to the Germans, I'd always
treated them friendly and polite. I knew the Germans pretty well, I'd even gone to school in their country
when I was little, near Hanover. I'd spoken their language. A bunch of loudmouthed little halfwits, that's
what they were, with pale, furtive eyes like wolves; we'd go out to the woods together after school to feel
the girls up, or we'd fire popguns or pistols you could buy for four marks. And we drank sugary beer
together. But from that to shooting at us right in the middle of the road, without so much as a word of
introduction, was a long way, a very long way. If you asked me, they were going too far.
This war, in fact, made no sense at all. It couldn't go on.


Even if the Russian grunts knew they would be at war, I imagine they expected more support in Ukraine from pro-Russian Ukrainians due to all the propaganda. Not so much absolute resistance from a Ukrainian military that's been pressurized under intense conflict since 2014 and now backed by richer Western Nations. Russia's economy is roughly the size of Spain and its significance is in its petrochemical resources and nuclear weapons - but everyone pretty much has nukes now and fossil fuels aren't as influential as they once were.

How experienced in actual combat are the majority of Russian soldiers? I doubt many of them are veterans of the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 which also didn't go as well as the Russian leaders wanted - nor veterans of Chechnya much longer ago.

Satellite images show more than three-mile-long Russian military column on roadway to Kyiv

As Ukrainians continue to repel Russian advances around Kyiv, new satellite images show a more than 3-mile-long Russian military convoy is on a roadway that heads toward the capital city.

According to Maxar, the convoy was seen on satellite images on Sunday around 10:56 a.m. local time on the P-02-02 road near Ivankiv, which is about 40 miles (60 kilometers) northwest of the Ukrainian capital. The P-02-02 road goes toward Kyiv.

Maxar identified fuel and logistical trucks, in addition to tanks, infantry vehicles and self-propelled artillery moving in the convoy.

Looks like they are getting serious.

[Tami]

Here is a Twitter that tracks Russian Oligarchs Jets

Imagine how useful this could be to the military, any military.

[Mister Mets]

I imagine Putin will instruct his soldiers to open fire on individuals who do these kind of things henceforth rather than suffer public embarrassment.

I'm not sure they have that level of control. He's not exactly instructing soldiers directly. It would also require significant evidence of explicit orders to shoot civilians.

[numberthirty]

It does seem like a completely confused invasion. I'm not really sure what the Russian soldiers have been informed but it seems like they aren't exactly sure why they are actually fighting in Ukraine. I think the Russian soldiers were told that they were being assembled for military exercises and then sent into Ukraine without really understanding they would actually be fighting and against a formidable and motivated defensive force on their own home territory.

It reminds me of the confusion Celine described in his first battle of WW1 in Journey to the End of Night.

Down the road, way in the distance, as far as we could see, there were two black dots, plunk in the middle
like us, but they were two Germans and they'd been busy shooting for the last fifteen or twenty minutes.
Maybe our colonel knew why they were shooting, maybe the Germans knew, but I, so help me, hadn't the
vaguest idea. As far back as I could search my memory, I hadn't done a thing to the Germans, I'd always
treated them friendly and polite. I knew the Germans pretty well, I'd even gone to school in their country
when I was little, near Hanover. I'd spoken their language. A bunch of loudmouthed little halfwits, that's
what they were, with pale, furtive eyes like wolves; we'd go out to the woods together after school to feel
the girls up, or we'd fire popguns or pistols you could buy for four marks. And we drank sugary beer
together. But from that to shooting at us right in the middle of the road, without so much as a word of
introduction, was a long way, a very long way. If you asked me, they were going too far.
This war, in fact, made no sense at all. It couldn't go on.


Even if the Russian grunts knew they would be at war, I imagine they expected more support in Ukraine from pro-Russian Ukrainians due to all the propaganda. Not so much absolute resistance from a Ukrainian military that's been pressurized under intense conflict since 2014 and now backed by richer Western Nations. Russia's economy is roughly the size of Spain and its significance is in its petrochemical resources and nuclear weapons - but everyone pretty much has nukes now and fossil fuels aren't as influential as they once were.

How experienced in actual combat are the majority of Russian soldiers? I doubt many of them are veterans of the Russo-Georgian war of 2008 which also didn't go as well as the Russian leaders wanted - nor veterans of Chechnya much longer ago.

Putin's reactions and statements seem chaotic. They don't seem to be the acts of this "genius" real-life supervillain that the media's portrayed. Even stories in the state-controlled Russian media seem to imply that his actions are essentially strengthening the United States and NATO.

There is a parallel track there.

Even George H.W. Bush served for a couple of years.

Best as we know?

Putin studied law, and served in an intelligence capacity.

Personally, I would not exactly be shocked if such a person did not have the same handle on military basics as someone like former President Bush.

[mathew101281]

This whole situation with Russia brought an old 60 minutes segment back to my remembrance. This was filmed in 2014.

[JB]

Satellite images show more than three-mile-long Russian military column on roadway to Kyiv



Looks like they are getting serious.

I believe Putin hoped the Ukrainians would simply rollover and surrender. Since they have showed great resistance though, he will turn it up a notch. He was never going to use the military's full force in the beginning and at once.

[babyblob]

I'm not sure they have that level of control. He's not exactly instructing soldiers directly. It would also require significant evidence of explicit orders to shoot civilians.

Putin does not have to give the order for something like a Russian soldier shooting down a civilian. Some soldiers in a place that they by many reports dont want to be. Going against people who hate them in their own country. It just takes one Russian Soldier who is stressed and a bit nervous to snap at a person laughing at him or giving him lip to shoot down a group of people.

I believe Putin hoped the Ukrainians would simply rollover and surrender. Since they have showed great resistance though, he will turn it up a notch. He was never going to use the military's full force in the beginning and at once.

Putin may be trying to limit reports from other countries to the people but he knows what they world is saying. How he is being mocked that Ukraine has held on this long. How this how thing has been a Clustermug so far.

He is going to to order the full force in soon. His ego is so fragile that he wont listen to this talk very long.

[Mister Mets]

I would love to see him run. He is one of the more reasonable members of the GOP. In a debate he would eat Trump alive. But I dont know if he would have wide spread appeal to the current GOP.

Same.

The fact of the matter is Majorie Tyler Greene and those like her are the real face of the Republican Party. No longer do they hide behind codewords and dogwhistles. They just straight up say that they want a white ethnostate.

Marjorie Taylor gets way too much attention, but she is a congressional backbencher. She's not the face of the party. She gets more attention from the left than she does from the right (although she gets more than she should from the right.)

Soundly defeating Trump in a debate would only make Romney appear to be 'intellectual' to conservatives and the vast majority of them have nothing but contempt for people who are more intelligent than themselves. Much as I hate the idea of having a Republican President again in 2025 (which is seemingly becoming more and more likely), we could do a lot worse than Romney.

Why do you think a Republican win in 2024 is becoming more and more likely?

[Kirby101]

I'm not sure they have that level of control. He's not exactly instructing soldiers directly. It would also require significant evidence of explicit orders to shoot civilians.

He is directly responsible for anything that happens. We don't need any specific evidence. Every act is on him and the blood is on his hands.
No need for your measures, reasonable nonsense here.

[Kirby101]

Why do you think a Republican win in 2024 is becoming more and more likely?

Because the GOP is passing laws in every State they control to make sure they win.

[Mister Mets]

Putin does not have to give the order for something like a Russian soldier shooting down a civilian. Some soldiers in a place that they by many reports dont want to be. Going against people who hate them in their own country. It just takes one Russian Soldier who is stressed and a bit nervous to snap at a person laughing at him or giving him lip to shoot down a group of people.




Putin may be trying to limit reports from other countries to the people but he knows what they world is saying. How he is being mocked that Ukraine has held on this long. How this how thing has been a Clustermug so far.

He is going to to order the full force in soon. His ego is so fragile that he wont listen to this talk very long.

That is a different situation from a policy of responding a particular way. I fear we will soon discover that Russian intruders did stupid things and got people killed. But that's different from orders to shoot civilians. As an example, soldiers panicked and shot an Afghanistan War memorial.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02...skirts-of-kyiv

Ursula von der Leyen announced an EU-wide ban on Russian propaganda outlets RT and Sputnik.

It's weird... when Ursula got the job, I wondered how being a medical doctor, a mother of 7 and a former minister of defense would qualify her for the job, yet here we are with a war in the middle of a pandemic.

Being a mother of 7 may help with patience.

I don’t think Zelensky will find acceptable Putin’s conditions at the moment: more his country resists, more he will be backed by Western countries…

And by attacking Ukraine, Putin proved the value of being a member of NATO… not only to Ukraine but also to other Eastern countries.

I don’t think the end of this is near…

A commentator had a good point that what we see on Twitter is not the war. There is a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to some of the reactions to the situation when the Russians do have a lot of guns.

Putin has also alienated potential allies who might otherwise help him to an offramp, so the end is uncertain. The best case scenario might be others in his administration realizing it's better for them if he falls down a flight of stairs.

Survive for how long? What does surviving even mean in the case of this war? I doubt there is something as surviving without winning. The longer the war rages, the more likely it is for russia to win. And then they stand at the border to Poland (my biggest fear, I am from Germany) and other countries.

Hope China does not get involved.

The longer it goes on, the worst it is for the Russians. They're the ones in someone else's territory, dealing with the consequences of sanctions and banking bans, while having to get food, gasoline and supplies.

[Mister Mets]

He is directly responsible for anything that happens. We need any specific evidence. Every act is on him and the blood is on his hands.
No need for your measures, reasonable nonsense here.

To be clear, there is currently enough evidence to imprison Putin for war crimes.

My comment was about the idea that Putin would be able to communicate to soldiers on the ground that they should shoot troublesome civilians. That is a difficult message to convey covertly.

Because the GOP is passing laws in every State they control to make sure they win.

I think we disagree on the effects of those laws.

Turnout was great in 2020, and a godawful Republican president was within a percentage point in key swing states of getting reelected.

[Kirby101]

To be clear, there is currently enough evidence to imprison Putin for war crimes.

My comment was about the idea that Putin would be able to communicate to soldiers on the ground that they should shoot troublesome civilians. That is a difficult message to convey covertly.

Already been done.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-...-human-rights/

I think we disagree on the effects of those laws.

Turnout was great in 2020, and a godawful Republican president was within a percentage point in key swing states of getting reelected.

Exactly. Stop a few more people from voting, or if you don't like the outcome, the Legislatures can make sure your guy wins.

How many voters in Atlanta or Phoenix do they need to suppress?