All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[godisawesome]

It's hard to predict. Afghanistan and Vietnam are the obvious examples where the resistance was able to withstand it, but it took decades of attrition.

Yeah, its impossible to predict how this will actually turn out if you're outside of Ukraine if you don't have an accurate perspective on the ground there - and I'd argue its still impossible to predict even from inside Ukraine because the questions this depends on aren't "How strong is the political will of the Ukrainian people?" but rather "How strong is the political will of different people in Ukraine?"

Because part of the way an insurgency gets started and becomes the death knell of imperialism, and part of the way its gets cut off and prevented from impeding imperialism, comes down to how ferocious, stubborn, and durable a much *smaller* percentage of the population reacts to an invasion, and how that smaller percentage of the population interacts with its peers.

If Patriots and/or Nationalists (and they should be separated when it comes to their exact nature, but have similar enough goals to obfuscate the difference some times) have the dedication to match Putin's own stubbornness, enough numbers for an impossible-to-quell insurgency, and maintain the support of the civilian population or at least enough "equal apathy" in comparison to the invaders... then Putin has a quagmire that will not end with a secure victory. If, on the other hand, a possible insurgency becomes untenable for various reasons (lack of support, infighting, etc.) then Putin can likely establish his preferred status quo enough to declare victory for now.

I *feel* like Ukraine is likely much stubborner than the lower estimates of it - this is not their first "autonomy vs submission" war with Russia, and this whole thing got kicked off by an internal revolution... but I ain't placing bets one way or another.

[achilles]

NATO should tell Russia ASAP that any nuclear catastrophe that contaminates any NATO country will be considered an active attack on NATO and result in their involvement.

Yeah, that cutting the power to Chernobyl is a bit...worrying if you ask me.

[Catlady in training]

I don't see how anyone in Ukraine would be willing to live under Russia's dominance after what they've done. I expect that Russia has turned even those who sympathised with them against them.

[Catlady in training]

Yeah, that cutting the power to Chernobyl is a bit...worrying if you ask me.

Hey, I'm just about 1 000 km away, no pressure.

[Tami]

Hey, I'm just about 1 000 km away, no pressure.

Let's pray things don't get that bad.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Hey, I'm just about 1 000 km away, no pressure.

I hope things don’t deteriorate. I’ll be thinking of you.

[Zauriel]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/08/b...sia/index.html

https://www.wionews.com/world/icon-o...res-why-460479

McDonald's and Starbucks are shutting their restaurants and cafes in Russia, and Coca-Cola is suspending its operations there in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

To take a stance against the Russian "military operation" in Ukraine, global fast-food giant McDonald's Corp on Tuesday (March 8) announced that it would temporarily close all 847 of its restaurants in Russia.

They don't usually put politics above business or profits. But I am glad they had to take a stance for Ukraine and human rights. If only they could also do it in China to protest against mistreatment of Uighurs

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/ukra...in-russia.html

McDonald’s, quiet on the Ukraine war, has more exposure to Russia than other U.S. fast-food chains.

U.S. fast-food chains have limited exposure to Russia and Ukraine, but McDonald’s is under the most pressure, according to a new report from Bank of America Securities.

Other restaurant companies have avoided greater exposure to Russia and Ukraine because most — or all — of their locations in the countries are operated by franchisees.

[Tendrin]

https://twitter.com/VandomVA/status/1501308203593654276

Texas is now interpreting all *past* transgender care as child abuse and investigating both trans *parents* and anyone has received gender affirming care up to now. There are enough transphobes willing to 'just follow orders' that this state sponsored terrorism will accomplish what it set out to do.

The federal government must step in.

[Tendrin]

Here's an article written by the subjects of one such investigation in Texas.

https://lovetothemax.net/2022/03/08/3025/

On Thursday Feb. 24, a statewide dragnet began. Child Protective Services (CPS) notified several parents that allegations of child abuse have been filed against them. We are among those parents. We are speaking out, because we need people to see that these illegal raids on loving families represent a tipping point. Political attacks against transgender youth have escalated over the years to bring us to this decisive moment. It is time for a national reckoning.

Nothing we say will change the minds of the authoritarians directing this horror show. We are speaking to the sympathetic majority of America. We need you to not normalize this state terrorism through your silence. Don’t just wring your hands. We need you to draw a line right here. It is not acceptable that some Americans have to flee their homes to secure their civil rights. Stop telling us to move. Help us.

We are working professionals with two happy, healthy, and kind children. We drive a minivan, volunteer, and go to church. Our son, age 14, is in gymnastics and plays the ukulele. Our daughter, age 9, is in Girl Scouts and does swimming and ballet. We have a suburban home with a pantry full of food and a trampoline in the backyard. In short, we are living our lives just like you. We are the family you would want to place a foster child with, not the family whose children should become foster kids themselves. And yet, the government is attempting to rip our family apart because we love our children unconditionally. Is this who we are, America?

We need you to imagine how it feels to have done nothing wrong, and still get that phone call from Child Protective Services (CPS). When we were notified of the allegations, it was as if the wind had been knocked out of us. We wanted to scream and cry, but we had no air. The room was spinning. Raising a transgender child in Texas has been one long political emergency. It always seemed like this day would come. Now it has arrived. Fear and panic washed over us, leaving us in a fog that has not lifted since. We haven’t slept, and have constant headaches. Eating is done only out of necessity, and it’s hard to keep food down when we do.

All this over Paxton issuing an 'opinion'.

[Catlady in training]

I hope things don’t deteriorate. I’ll be thinking of you.

Thank you.

[Xheight]

The letter "Z" has become a new swastika:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...war-for-russia

Scary.

edit: more details from someone who studies Russian culture: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...06408101593094



What does that last part remind me of?

I am guessing it is not https://nowamericacanbegreatagain.com/ you were thinking of but the SOU also had watered down MAGA ra-ra.

[JB]

Yeah, that cutting the power to Chernobyl is a bit...worrying if you ask me.

Thankfully the IAEA looked into it after Ukraine reported it and said that they see no critical impact on safety as "the heat load of spent fuel storage pool and volume of cooling water at the site is sufficient for effective heat removal without need for electrical supply."

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1...C90ev_x9YpAAAA

[Xheight]

According to BBC website, a Polish plan to supply fighter jets to Ukraine has been rejected by the US. (The plan proposed certainly required US approval because it involved flying the jets in via a US airbase in another NATO country.)

The US rejection does not surprise me (the risk of escalating this insane conflict even further would be high), but I have seen an earlier TV interview with Blinken saying he favoured Poland supplying the jets, and indeed he would then work to loan Poland other jets to ensure their own defence was not compromised.

It may be Blinken reconsidered his earlier views? Or maybe he prefers a slightly less provocative way to supply the jets? (e.g. Ukrainian pilots simply walking over to Poland to fly the planes themselves, rather than supplying via a US base.)

Blinken has been courting those who wrote the memo and is not running policy per se

ON THE NO-FLY ZONE: The group of 27 foreign policy heavyweights has signed an open letter to the Biden administration calling for a “limited no-fly zone.” The campaign is led by ROBERT MCCONNELL, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000...4d&nlid=630318

Crazy Hawks

[Johnathan]

https://twitter.com/VandomVA/status/1501308203593654276

Texas is now interpreting all *past* transgender care as child abuse and investigating both trans *parents* and anyone has received gender affirming care up to now. There are enough transphobes willing to 'just follow orders' that this state sponsored terrorism will accomplish what it set out to do.

The federal government must step in.

Trans people are a minority inside a minority so any proactive policing will have massively tragic effects on such a small group.

At the same time, it is such hypocrisy. The same people so rabidly concerned about their rights when it comes to things like mask mandates and vaccine requirements are supporting invasive and destructive police action against other people's rights. Using the old "what about the children?!" justification when they couldn't give a damn about the kids. They've been doing that since I was a child and what good did it do?

Even if transgenderism was a mental illness, when is law enforcement a viable solution to a medical ailment? Let's illegalize depression, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. I'm sure that will fix it. Does your kid have ADHD? Well, obviously that's child abuse.

[Zelena]

Sounds more like a political move than an effective tactical one… A general said that the Russians have the control of Ukrainian air space and it would be hard to make fly any plane in Ukraine…

Actually apparently a lot of Russian planes have been downed by all the surface-to-air missiles that have been sent to Ukraine… So the Russians may have no more the control of the Ukrainian air space, after all…