At times, it has seemed like the severity of the Ukraine war could finally force a meeting of minds between France and Germany.
Last month, Scholz outlined his vision of “a stronger, more sovereign, geopolitical European Union.” In Paris, Scholz’s statement was read as a belated answer to Macron’s 2017 call for “strategic autonomy.” Macron had hoped to re-energize Europe’s defense policy and spoke of the need to build “a common intervention force, a common defense budget and common doctrine to act.”
But beyond the diplomatic niceties, neither Scholz nor Macron have been able to take the lead in the war. France and Germany have fallen in the wake of Poland and Nordic and Baltic nations in trying to steer the European agenda.
Several French officials have said that the publicly available numbers on military donations were unreflective as France has not disclosed all its donations. If so, it’s a decision that has backfired according to Philippe Maze-Sencier, a public affairs expert at the Institut Montaigne and global chair of public affairs at Hill+Knowlton Strategies.
“We decided not to play the communications game, but it means France is in seventh position in international rankings, on a par with Norway. But we don’t play in the same league as Norway. No wonder we are not legitimate when it comes to spearheading the Europe of defense,” Maze-Sencier said.
Macron’s past attempts at casting himself as a mediator in the conflict, promoting France as “a balancing power” on Ukraine, have also sparked suspicions over his long-term objectives. His decision to keep lines of communication open with the Kremlin and past calls “not to humiliate Russia” were derided in many parts of the EU, according to Maze-Sencier.
“[France] has lost credibility because of our position on Ukraine. Put crudely, our friends in Nordic countries, the Baltic states and in Eastern Europe feel let down and even compare it to [the lack of solidarity] in WWII,” said Maze-Sencier.
“They say give us U.S. protection any day,” he added.