All purpose news and politics thread part VI: This Is Not The Time For Posing

[worstblogever]

Do debates still matter in US politics? By all accounts, Crist wiped the floor with DeSantis last night. He's a better speaker and was better prepared, and he hit him hard on being a bully, being anti business (the attacks on Disney and the cruise ship industry) and not committing to stay governor for a full term because he wants to run for president.

Republicans have abandoned democracy if it means they can't win, their base ignores factual evidence in complete lapses of cognitive dissonance, and their politicians have forgotten what governance is in lieu of abusing power to "trigger the left" when they're given it... but GOP voters enjoy that last part enough to let all the other stuff pass.

We're left to the mercy of independent voters who are informed by media platforms that are labeled "leftist" by the right, when in reality, almost all of them are owned by billionaires spinning stories to their own benefit. It's not their fault that they aren't being told the GOP are a fascist, white Christian nationalist party who are looking to remove constitutionally protected rights from citizens, which is the current reality. If that was what the news was reporting, I think they would be able to process debates for being everything in this post on display.

[CaptainEurope]

Republicans have abandoned democracy if it means they can't win, their base ignores factual evidence in complete lapses of cognitive dissonance, and their politicians have forgotten what governance is in lieu of abusing power to "trigger the left" when they're given it... but GOP voters enjoy that last part enough to let all the other stuff pass.

We're left to the mercy of independent voters who are informed by media platforms that are labeled "leftist" by the right, when in reality, almost all of them are owned by billionaires spinning stories to their own benefit. It's not their fault that they aren't being told the GOP are a fascist, white Christian nationalist party who are looking to remove constitutionally protected rights from citizens, which is the current reality. If that was what the news was reporting, I think they would be able to process debates for being everything in this post on display.

Florida is an interesting case because it's the battle of two governors, and Crist, I believe, was still a Republican when he served as governor. He had some great moments in the debate where he pointed out that he lowered taxes and fess that DeSantis raised, pointed to things that were better under him than under Ron.

The polls have been all over the place. A single one had Crist up 3, all the other ones see DeSantis leading by anything from 3 points to 21 (!! - a registered voter poll by University of Florida, who had him up 8 in the next poll).

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Sadly for Florida every major poll shows DeSantis ahead. That state will pay a steep price once he's outta office when it comes crashing down. The receipts are always left for the next governor to pay.

[Panfoot]

I wouldn't put much hope up for Florida, the polls have always been pretty steadily ahead for him thanks to him being the Fuhrer in waiting to the Republican party and their propaganda channels. At best i'm hoping we can at least finally oust Rubio at least, I have no hope we'll get rid of DeSantis and the pedophile Matt Gaetz.

[hyped78]

Barring a massive Blue Wave (weirder things have happened), at this point DeSantis has it in the bag. It's not just that he's leading comfortably in the polls - even outside on a potential egregious polling error - it's also that the % of undecided voters is fairly low when compared to other races.

Much more important is tonight's PA Senate debate between Fetterman and Oz.

Also, a Trafalgar poll out today has a shocking Herschel Walker +2 in Georgia - but at 49% it's still below the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Plus at 49%-47% it's within the margin of error of 2.9%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nock-7329.html

[Username taken]

Barring a massive Blue Wave (weirder things have happened), at this point DeSantis has it in the bag. It's not just that he's leading comfortably in the polls - even outside on a potential egregious polling error - it's also that the % of undecided voters is fairly low when compared to other races.

Much more important is tonight's PA Senate debate between Fetterman and Oz.

Also, a Trafalgar poll out today has a shocking Herschel Walker +2 in Georgia - but at 49% it's still below the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Plus at 49%-47% it's within the margin of error of 2.9%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nock-7329.html

Trafalgar is GOP funded.

Personally, I remain unconvinced that Walker can win that election.I’m not at all convinced that Walker can get enough GOP voters to come out on Election Day and get him over the line.

On a broader note, there’s been some very unusual and sharp swings in the polling in recent election cycles. RCP is simply adjusting their methodology to account for underestimated GOP support. This is quite foolish because since the 2016 election cycle, voter turnout has been very high and that has generally (not always) favored democrats. Hence,why the GOP is still in disbelief at how comprehensively Biden defeated Trump in 2020. It’s also why democratic leadership fancy their chances in the upcoming elections. In light of this, what the pollsters should really do is expand their sample size significantly to address these polling “anomalies”.

I’m not saying that we should disregard polling but with increasing polarization and voter turnout somewhat going up, pollsters should adjust their methodology.

[hyped78]

Trafalgar is GOP funded.

Personally, I remain unconvinced that Walker can win that election.I’m not at all convinced that Walker can get enough GOP voters to come out on Election Day and get him over the line.

On a broader note, there’s been some very unusual and sharp swings in the polling in recent election cycles. RCP is simply adjusting their methodology to account for underestimated GOP support. This is quite foolish because since the 2016 election cycle, voter turnout has been very high and that has generally (not always) favored democrats. Hence,why the GOP is still in disbelief at how comprehensively Biden defeated Trump in 2020. It’s also why democratic leadership fancy their chances in the upcoming elections. In light of this, what the pollsters should really do is expand their sample size significantly to address these polling “anomalies”.

I’m not saying that we should disregard polling but with increasing polarization and voter turnout somewhat going up, pollsters should adjust their methodology.

Polling is worth what it's worth, at the end of the day.

Regarding Trafalgar, I know - but they're also an "A-" pollster as classified by Five Thirty Eight, so they've been quite accurate:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

RCP adjusting their forecast based on avg. polling errors is something I personally don't take very seriously, it looks a bit "dangerous". I assume you're talking about this:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rojection.html

But - it is true that RCP's poll averages overestimated Dems/ underestimated the GOP voting in 2020, in some states quite significantly.

[Username taken]

Polling is worth what it's worth, at the end of the day.

Regarding Trafalgar, I know - but they're also an "A-" pollster as classified by Five Thirty Eight, so they've been quite accurate:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

RCP adjusting their forecast based on avg. polling errors is something I personally don't take very seriously, it looks a bit "dangerous". I assume you're talking about this:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rojection.html

But - it is true that RCP's poll averages overestimated Dems/ underestimated the GOP voting in 2020, in some states quite significantly.

Yes, RCP overestimated dems in the past but at the end of the day, Biden did actually turn two red states blue which is something that a lot of polls didn't even expect (he ultimately didn't even need the blue wall to win the election). Where Biden "underperformed" was primarily in Florida and Texas where he lost pretty handily to Trump.

That RCP projection chart looks very, very weird. They are literally discounting polling averages and adjusting to possible GOP undercounting, that looks very bizarre.

I know that Trafalgar has a high rating but they were guys that forecasted a Trump win in the last election. They did this because they said they were adjusting their models due to underestimated GOP support, and it turned out to be a pretty disastrous prediction. That's why I don't really take their polls at face value.

My broader point is, most polling models can't really account for large voter turnout. That's why I'm not convinced that someone like Walker can actually win, that's not to say he can't but I'm just not convinced.

[CaptainEurope]

Yes, RCP overestimated dems in the past but at the end of the day, Biden did actually turn two red states blue which is something that a lot of polls didn't even expect (he ultimately didn't even need the blue wall to win the election). Where Biden "underperformed" was primarily in Florida and Texas where he lost pretty handily to Trump.

That RCP projection chart looks very, very weird. They are literally discounting polling averages and adjusting to possible GOP undercounting, that looks very bizarre.

I know that Trafalgar has a high rating but they were guys that forecasted a Trump win in the last election. They did this because they said they were adjusting their models due to underestimated GOP support, and it turned out to be a pretty disastrous prediction. That's why I don't really take their polls at face value.

My broader point is, most polling models can't really account for large voter turnout. That's why I'm not convinced that someone like Walker can actually win, that's not to say he can't but I'm just not convinced.

Co/efficient Poll for the Kansas amendment to remove the constitutional right to an abortion:

YES: 47%
NO: 43%

Actual election results:

YES: 41%
NO: 59%

The most recent example of a poll getting things wrong seriously underestimated how angry and afraid women voters are.

[hyped78]

Co/efficient Poll for the Kansas amendment to remove the constitutional right to an abortion:

YES: 47%
NO: 43%

Actual election results:

YES: 41%
NO: 59%

The most recent example of a poll getting things wrong seriously underestimated how angry and afraid women voters are.

Tricky analysis there because in the Kansas vote the only issue on the ballot was abortion and the vote was held when abortion was THE top issue being discussed. In these elections, all polls show that abortion is not even close to being one of the top topics for this election right now, with Inflation and Cost of Living being the top ones - issues that, whether correct or not, voters are considering the GOP as better equipped to handle.

That having been said, the fact that most polls have underestimated the GOP vote in past elections obviously doesn't mean that the same will happen now. The contrary can happen, who knows. We'll find out. What seems sure is that, when looking at trends, in the past month of so, the GOP have been gaining ground - which also almost always happens on Midterms for the party out of power.

[hyped78]

Yes, RCP overestimated dems in the past but at the end of the day, Biden did actually turn two red states blue which is something that a lot of polls didn't even expect (he ultimately didn't even need the blue wall to win the election). Where Biden "underperformed" was primarily in Florida and Texas where he lost pretty handily to Trump.

That RCP projection chart looks very, very weird. They are literally discounting polling averages and adjusting to possible GOP undercounting, that looks very bizarre.

I know that Trafalgar has a high rating but they were guys that forecasted a Trump win in the last election. They did this because they said they were adjusting their models due to underestimated GOP support, and it turned out to be a pretty disastrous prediction. That's why I don't really take their polls at face value.

My broader point is, most polling models can't really account for large voter turnout. That's why I'm not convinced that someone like Walker can actually win, that's not to say he can't but I'm just not convinced.

No, polls can't predict turnout, they can't predict last moment decisions, there can be polling errors, a lot of things can go wrong. I saw Five Thirty Eight analyzing the RCP methodology to "correct" their polling averages and they're also skeptical.

If we look at RCP polling averages WITHOUT that "correction" factor, right now:
- Fetterman +1.3% in PA
- Laxalt +0.8% in Nevada
- Kelly +2.5% in AZ
- Warnock +0.3% in Georgia
- Johnson +2.7% in WI
- Vance +2.0% in Ohio

Most of these are within the margin of error, so every vote counts and who knows... I would be very shocked if Walker wins in Georgia but it will probably go to a runoff anyways. IF Walker means in Georgia, this probably means the GOP will have a very good night overall.
The thing is that it's the GOP who need the most Senate wins - they need to keep PA, Wisconsin and Ohio and then flip Nevada, Georgia or Arizona (barring any outliers in New Hampshire, North Carolina etc.). If they lose e.g. PA then they need to flip two states. The heavy lifting is on their side, so to speak.

These were the last 2020 polls on RCP:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

Their final averaged forecasted Biden +7.2% - real result was Biden +4.5%.

But, again, this doesn't mean it will happen again. Polls can be underrepresenting Democrats this time around, who knows.

[Tami]

Don't place too much faith in Polls this year. At best they are a whole lot of 50-50 races, which make the polls meaningless.

[Username taken]

Don't place too much faith in Polls this year. At best they are a whole lot of 50-50 races, which make the polls meaningless.

Exactly.

A good chunk of the polls is within the margins of error.

[Gray Lensman]

There are also some things which have probably energized unlikely voters, and most polls don't even ask them anything.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Do debates still matter in US politics? By all accounts, Crist wiped the floor with DeSantis last night. He's a better speaker and was better prepared, and he hit him hard on being a bully, being anti business (the attacks on Disney and the cruise ship industry) and not committing to stay governor for a full term because he wants to run for president.

That last part is key. It’s no secret DeSantis has a major itch to be president, thing is, so does Trump, even though he hasn’t thrown his hat in the ring. But hat hasn’t stopped Caramel Caligula from being pissed with DeSantis because he doesn’t want competition, leading to a rift between the Florida Boys, and that could potentially split the Qpublican ticket, especially since Trump’s supporters are more devoted to him and not the party, and DeSantis knows that because he’d need that support for a presidential run.