Why crime is rising
Crime is a symptom of summertime. The combination of heat, no school, outdoor hangouts and interpersonal conflict mean cities often see their highest rates of crime in the warmest months.
But this summer is a different beast.
Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist who teaches at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said it's "reasonably clear" that crime is climbing at least partially due to cities reopening and activities resuming.
Rosenfeld recently published research that found the homicide rate in large US cities plunged in March, April and May compared to the previous year. He said he's almost certain that coronavirus lockdowns caused homicides to fall.
His analysis of data for June isn't complete, but he said the uptick in crime is clear. He said it's highly likely that widespread social unrest in response to George Floyd's death and other police violence is contributing to an increase in violent crime.
Rosenfeld believes the protests have stoked existing tensions between police and the communities they serve. When people don't trust police or fear their response if they call for help, they won't contact them when crimes occur or cooperate with investigators.
The pandemic, which has disproportionately sickened and killed Black Americans, and the Black Lives Matter protests have hit a raw nerve among people of color, said Richard Aborn, president of the Citizens' Crime Commission of New York City. This has fueled distrust of institutions, including police, and led to a "crisis of police legitimacy," he said.
And when people don't trust the police, Rosenfeld said, they're more likely to take matters in their own hands and settle disputes on their own.