Traditionally, a candidate leading in polls by 5.5 points is not so doomed that the other guy's reelection should be considered safe.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
The swing state polls also do not suggest a safe reelection for President Trump.
Biden's favorability rating isn't that great, but it does beat Trump, Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell and Pence.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-6677.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-6013.html
Is there a consistent correlation between you liking a candidate's speeches and that candidate winning?