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  1. #13246
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    I have yet to see any evidence those people exist. I do not know anybody more proud of their opinion than Trump supporters. The polls did not underestimate support for Trump supporting candidates in 2018 one bit.
    "shy Trump supporters" are a stupid, stupid myth that Trafalgar polls latched on to.
    There was an interesting explanation on why the media may exaggerate the significance of "shy Trump voters." Many journalists hang out in social circles where supporting Trump is just not considered acceptable, and would assume that there are incentives to hide support for Trump. But there are other parts of the country where Trump supporters will be quite vocal. In Rural Pennsylvania, Trump supporters have no problem sharing their views.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  2. #13247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Right now the polls are showing Biden by about 8 to 10 points with around 8 percent left between undecideds and third party. If all the undecideds voted for Trump, he would still be behind. And the undecideds seem to be breaking for Biden.
    Exactly.

    Biden is polling around and over 50%.

    Independents and undecideds breaking for Trump really won't have any effect.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

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  3. #13248
    Extraordinary Member Joker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    There are no secret Trump supporters. Definitely not this election cycle.

    The average Trump supporter has been very vocal about supporting him since he won the election.

    If anything, there are more people that want to vote Biden but are shy to say it because it doesn't sound "cool".
    You guys are both making shit up. I'm sure plenty of people voting for Trump don't want or need to talk about it. Same for Biden. There is no one size fits all voter for either candidate.

  4. #13249
    The Superior One Celgress's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Gore won Florida, flat out, full stop. Scalia went against every ruling he ever voted on to stop the vote count and hand it to Bush. Stolen!....
    I agree with you wholeheartedly. The 2000 General Election was 100% stolen. Chief Justice Rehnquist was also George Bush Sr's golfing buddy and a good friend. He should have recused himself from the case.
    "So you've come to the end now alive but dead inside."

  5. #13250
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    The thing is, unless there's an average of 6%-7% swing in the polls across the swing states, it'll take something of a small miracle for Trump to win.

    There's something that people haven't even paid attention to, Trump has NOT ONCE led Biden in the polls throughout this election cycle. Not once. At this point in 2016, there were a couple of polls that had Trump +1 ahead of Hilary (right-leaning polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar come to mind) and these were WRONG because Trump lost the popular vote.

    In fact, there's a very, very real possibility of an electoral landslide if the polls are as accurate as they appear.

    It's just the electoral trauma of 2016 that's kept me on edge.
    "Obviously not all conservatives are racists/bigots but all racists/bigots claim to be conservative"- Unknown

    "BE WOKE, VOTE!!"

  6. #13251
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Gore won Florida, flat out, full stop. Scalia went against every ruling he ever voted on to stop the vote count and hand it to Bush. Stolen!

    Outside of Bush in 04, no Republican has gotten the majority of votes since the 80s. Senate Democrats have gotten far more votes than Senate Republicans, we have minority rule, pure and simple. The system was poorly designed to follow the will of the people.
    I know we've argued about this in the past, but the reviews suggest that the strategy the Gore campaign pursued would not have come up with enough votes.

    https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/polit...sults-studies/
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  7. #13252
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    The thing is, unless there's an average of 6%-7% swing in the polls across the swing states, it'll take something of a small miracle for Trump to win.

    There's something that people haven't even paid attention to, Trump has NOT ONCE led Biden in the polls throughout this election cycle. Not once. At this point in 2016, there were a couple of polls that had Trump +1 ahead of Hilary (right-leaning polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar come to mind) and these were WRONG because Trump lost the popular vote.

    In fact, there's a very, very real possibility of an electoral landslide if the polls are as accurate as they appear.

    It's just the electoral trauma of 2016 that's kept me on edge.
    At this point for Trump to win, something very big has to break very soon, or there has to be some kind of systemic polling error. These are possible but unlikely.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  8. #13253
    Extraordinary Member Revolutionary_Jack's Avatar
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    The thing about some Trump voters that isn't told is that anecdotally there's evidence that many women in red states were disgusted by Trump but are forced to vote red by their abusive husbands. Like they beat their wives, their partners and so on, and force them to vote along.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...term-elections

    Progressive organizer Annabel Park told the story that made me start to wonder. “I can’t stop thinking about this woman I met while doorknocking for Beto in Dallas,” Annabel wrote on social media a few days before the midterm elections.

    “She lived in a sprawling low-income apartment complex. After I knocked a couple of times, she answered the door with her husband just behind her. She looked petrified and her husband looked menacing behind her. When I made my pitch about Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, her husband yelled, ‘We’re not interested.’ She looked at me and silently mouthed, ‘I support Beto.’ Before I could respond, she quickly closed the door.”

    Annabel told me afterwards, “It’s been on my mind. Did she get beaten? That was my fear.”

    There’s a form of voter intimidation that widespread and unacknowledged. It’s the husbands who bully and silence and control their wives, as witnessed by dozens of door-to-door canvassers across the country I heard from.

    ....
    Wives asked their husbands directly who the two were going to vote for. Many seemed cowed. Husbands answered the door and refused to let the wife speak to canvassers, or talked or shouted over her, or insisted that she was going to vote Republican even though she was a registered Democrat, or insisted there were no Democrats in the house because she had never told him she was one. A friend in Iowa told me, “I asked the woman who answered the door if she had a plan for voting, and a man appeared, behind her, and said, quite brusquely, ‘I’m a Republican’. Before I could reply, he shut the door in my face.”

    Another friend reported, “A woman I texted in Michigan told me, ‘I am not allowed’ to vote for the candidate.” Many canvassers told me those experiences were common. I did not find stories of the reverse phenomenon – wives dominating their husbands, or husbands pushing their wives to vote for the Democratic candidate. Of course I talked to people canvassing for Democrats, and domestic violence takes place across the political spectrum, but the bullying seemed to be mostly either to oblige the wife to lean to the right or to not participate at all.

    “The wife spotted me and jumped up from her table to intercept me at the door before I could knock,” one canvasser from California told me.

    Without saying any words, the wife softly put both hands out in front of her body, palms facing me. She moved her hands from side to side as though to tell me, “No thank you, please go away without making a noise.”

    She was one of many who appeared to be afraid of their husbands.

    Going door-to-door is an extraordinary experience. You see demographics break down into actual faces, stories, shabby or manicured front yards, see subdivisions and slums, see people who are clear and fierce or indifferent or confused about the upcoming election. You meet people where they are, and where some of them are is in fear of the man of the house.

    My friend Melody had a Nevada man who never turned off his leaf-blower roar at her over the din, “This is a RED house! This house is Republican!”

    Melody told me: “I say I’ve come by to speak to Donna. ‘No, she doesn’t want to speak to you.’ I consider saying, ‘Looks like this house is kind of purple, since Donna is a Democrat.’ But then I think, ‘Maybe he doesn’t know. Maybe she just goes into that booth and votes the way she wants without telling him.’ But what if she doesn’t go into a booth? What if they vote at the kitchen table? Does he supervise her ballot? Is she afraid to fill it out according to her own wishes rather than his?”

    No one knows to what extent this domination may prevent women from voting according to their own beliefs and agendas or participating at all.

    Of course there are plenty of rightwing women who are enthusiastically voting for the conservative of their choice, but when you look at the enormous gender gaps between Democrats and Republicans or hear the myriad door-to-door stories, you recognize that there are many marriages between Democratic women and Republican men, and many Republican men who intend to control their wives’ political expression.

  9. #13254
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    I know we've argued about this in the past, but the reviews suggest that the strategy the Gore campaign pursued would not have come up with enough votes.

    https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/polit...sults-studies/
    Who gives a shit. The Fact is he got more votes, period. The fact is the Florida Supreme Court ordered a Statewide recount. And that is what the SC stopped. So if dwelling on what Gore wanted helps you be okay with a stolen election, have at it. But Gore won, flat out, full stop. And the results of that horrible SC decision was an immoral war and a drowned American City. But rest well on your technicalities.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  10. #13255
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    At this point for Trump to win, something very big has to break very soon, or there has to be some kind of systemic polling error. These are possible but unlikely.
    Or the systematic election suppression and fraud that is the GOP's stock and trade.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  11. #13256
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    My biggest fear is that with all the absentee ballots that will need to be counted after Nov. 3 the Trump appointed Judges will stop the vote counting in key States to give Trump an undeserved victory.

    Several GOP controlled States could also throw out the popular vote to give their State Electors to Trump.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  12. #13257
    Silver Sentinel BeastieRunner's Avatar
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    The Economist's forecasts are out.

    Biden:
    better than 9 in 10 or 92% chance to win the EC.
    better than 19 in 20 or 99% chance to win the PV.
    230-415 is the forecasted EC range.

    Trump:
    Less than 1 in 10 or 8% chance of winning the EC.
    less than 1 in 20 or 1% chance of winning the PV.
    123-308 is the forecasted EC range.

    347 - 191 EC win for Biden with 95% confidence.

    Their likely forecast is 65% of higher, so their 4 swing states are GA, NC, OH, & IA. Which is very high compared to other places.

    They are predicting a 55% PV win for Biden.

    They are also forecasting Democrats at around 3 in 4 or 76% to win a majority in the Senate, with an average of 52.5 seats and a range of 47-58.

    Republicans are forecasted around 1 in 4 or 24% to win the majority in the Senate, with an average of 47.5 seats and a range of 42-53.

    Using their 65% threshold, only one KS and both GA seats are uncertain. If those 3 go to the GOP, Dems are looking at 51 seats.

    Democrats in the House have a better than 19 in 20 or 99% chance of winning. 222-265 is the seat range and the PV range is 51-56%.

    Republicans in the House are looking at less than 1 in 20 or 1% chance of winning. 170-213 is the seat range and the PV range is 44-49%.

    Even if the Rs take all 17 of the uncertain seats (the current forecast is 3 Ds, 14 Rs), the majority will still be the Dems.
    Last edited by BeastieRunner; 10-20-2020 at 12:14 PM.
    "Always listen to the crazy scientist with a weird van or armful of blueprints and diagrams." -- Vibranium

  13. #13258
    The Superior One Celgress's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    Who gives a shit. The Fact is he got more votes, period. The fact is the Florida Supreme Court ordered a Statewide recount. And that is what the SC stopped. So if dwelling on what Gore wanted helps you be okay with a stolen election, have at it. But Gore won, flat out, full stop. And the results of that horrible SC decision was an immoral war and a drowned American City. But rest well on your technicalities.
    And I would argue the rise of Obama (as a direct reaction) and then Trump (as a counter-reaction to that reaction). Dubya the accidental president made a huge mess of things. His "election" was the worst political blunder in American History, bar none. Without Dubya, there is no Trump. People lost what faith they had in the system because of the Dubya Era or Error.

    Edit Oh, and let us not forget the Economic Crash of 2008/2009.
    "So you've come to the end now alive but dead inside."

  14. #13259
    Old school comic book fan WestPhillyPunisher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    My biggest fear is that with all the absentee ballots that will need to be counted after Nov. 3 the Trump appointed Judges will stop the vote counting in key States to give Trump an undeserved victory.

    Several GOP controlled States could also throw out the popular vote to give their State Electors to Trump.
    Pennsylvania is one of those states facing a situation with counting ballots after November 3rd. The Supremes were deadlocked on the issue and kicked it back to the state court which allowed for three extra days after the election to count mail-in ballots. If Amy Coney Barrett were on the bench, chances are she would’ve voted with the conservatives. No wonder Trump and McConnell have been obsessed with getting her confirmed, because there’s bound to be a ruling in one state or another.
    Avatar: Here's to the late, great Steve Dillon. Best. Punisher. Artist. EVER!

  15. #13260
    The Superior One Celgress's Avatar
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    Angry Re:

    This might get me in trouble, but I become extremely angry whenever I see celebrities like Ellen trying to rehabilitate Dubya and his cronies. All I can think of are the millions of lives their policies destroyed from Iraq, to New Orleans, to the Nation Wide Housing Crisis, where is the justice for the victims and their loved ones I wonder? Where is their second chance?
    "So you've come to the end now alive but dead inside."

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