So, basically, Kindred is trying to tell Peter, that "it takes just one bad day for you, to turn out like me". At least that's how I understand it.
I think You are right with that theory. Spencer even addressed spoilers:end of spoilers. OMD? Not really. He even took an obscure line from resurrected Mysterio, from several years ago and integrated it into his run, to make an illusion, as if Kindred acted behind the scenes for a long time. There's no way Spencer is ignoring OMD.
Sins Past in #49/#850, with Green Goblin picking up on Spider-Gwen.
There's also that Kingpin connection. I can't think of any reason why Kingpin would know Harry or Gwen, but he has history with pre-OMD Peter. Wasn't Spider-Man present, when Vanessa died, or something like that?