Who Will Be The 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate?

[Tami]

Mike Pence, Mitt Romney Lead Poll for 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate—but Only if Trump Doesn't Run

Republican 2024 presidential hopefuls already descending on newfound battleground Georgia

Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Rick Scott all mentioned as possibly running in 2024

I think it is way too soon to tell and odds are there will be others we aren't even aware of yet considering jumping in.

[Timothy Hunter]

Here are my top ten choices for the Republican Nominee for president in 2024:

10. Jeb Bush
9. Jeb Bush
8. Jeb Bush
7. Jeb Bush
6. Jeb Bush
5. Jeb Bush
4. Jeb Bush
3. Jeb Bush
2. Jeb Bush
1. Jeb Bush

[PaulBullion]

Trump lost twice, first by 3 million votes and then by over 7 million votes. He didn't win on any policy, just got lucky with a few States in our f'ed up election system.

Three times, if you count his 2000 run.

[Mister Mets]

Mike Pence, Mitt Romney Lead Poll for 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate—but Only if Trump Doesn't Run

Republican 2024 presidential hopefuls already descending on newfound battleground Georgia

Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Rick Scott all mentioned as possibly running in 2024

I think it is way too soon to tell and odds are there will be others we aren't even aware of yet considering jumping in.

At this point, it would be mainly a function of name recognition. A vote for Romney would be a vote for a particular lane.

The problem with that poll is that they're asking all Americans their preference.

When it's limited to the survey of 304 Republicans, the results are different (45% prefer Trump, 22% prefer Pence, 8% prefer Romney.) Without Trump, Pence is at 44%, Ted Cruz is second at 14% and Romney is third at 11%.

[Tami]

At this point, it would be mainly a function of name recognition. A vote for Romney would be a vote for a particular lane.

The problem with that poll is that they're asking all Americans their preference.

When it's limited to the survey of 304 Republicans, the results are different (45% prefer Trump, 22% prefer Pence, 8% prefer Romney.) Without Trump, Pence is at 44%, Ted Cruz is second at 14% and Romney is third at 11%.

I don't place much faith in these polls. We still have about 3 or 4 years before anyone (except Trump) actually makes a public announcement of their intentions to run, and a lot can happen in 3 to 4 years.

It's not even certain what condition the Republican Party will be in, in 3 to 4 years. They may stay the same as they are now, they might have so much infighting that they can't field proper candidates, they might split into two parties, or they might pull their act together and actually be competitive. Or something else might happen, or nothing might happen.

I'd be more inclined to a poll that asks which republicans do you hope would run. For me, any Republican who stood up to Trump and refused to bow down to him or follow his example might be a resonable potential candidate.

If instead the slate is filled with MAGA Militia, White Nationalists, QAnon believers, Liars, Self-enriching/Greedy, Criminals, etc. then we have a problem.

[Mister Mets]

I don't place much faith in these polls. We still have about 3 or 4 years before anyone (except Trump) actually makes a public announcement of their intentions to run, and a lot can happen in 3 to 4 years.

It's not even certain what condition the Republican Party will be in, in 3 to 4 years. They may stay the same as they are now, they might have so much infighting that they can't field proper candidates, they might split into two parties, or they might pull their act together and actually be competitive. Or something else might happen, or nothing might happen.

I'd be more inclined to a poll that asks which republicans do you hope would run. For me, any Republican who stood up to Trump and refused to bow down to him or follow his example might be a resonable potential candidate.

If instead the slate is filled with MAGA Militia, White Nationalists, QAnon believers, Liars, Self-enriching/Greedy, Criminals, etc. then we have a problem.

It's a fair point that a perfect poll isn't very useful because it's asking about the political environment three years from now. But this poll was flawed in that it asked Democrats who they prefer in a Republican presidential primary.

Yet another political thread on here....but I cannot resist.

1. Donald Trump is done

No one is going to be excited about electing a President for 1 term.
He has alienated swing and moderate voters with his erratic unstable personality (embracing conspiracy theories, and fringe anti vaccers)
Trump will most likely be mired in corruption charges (Testimony from Micheal Cohen) .

2. The public will never vote for Donald Trump JR

He has shown to be as erratic and unstable as his father, (embracing conspiracy theories)
He championed his father's appeal to the fringe right in the last election (Militia men, Trump Train, non maskers & other wierdos)
If he needs to be pardoned by his father, than he will have a black mark on his name

3. The person who wins the GOP will take some of Trump's views, moderate them, in order to make them appealing to moderates.

The three issues Trump rode to victory on, 1. Nationalization of the economy (Tariffs) 2. immigration 3. Foreign Intervention, are not solely American issues,

they are the three core issues being played out around the world in politics right now. Basically the core urban centers vs the peripheral rural towns.

The candidate who appeals to these issues has a strong chance to win the GOP in 2024, but not necessarily the Presidency.

1. I do hope Trump's done. I'm not sure about the idea that no one will be excited about electing a President for 1 term. Presidents typically get reelected, and Biden's expected to be a one-termer.

2. If Trump Jr is pardoned, that will be a black mark, but we don't know if that's going to happen.

I'm not a fan of the guy, but he was a useful campaign surrogate for his father, and he does have a potential platform.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-tr...181928812.html

3. Those issues do poll well in a general election context.

[Hypestyle]

Basically, the fight over the nomination has already begun.

Will Trumpism continue to dominate the GOP? Will they go back to the Bush style? Will there be a completely new style of conservatism? And who will be the candidate in the end?

I see Trump Jr. or the other adult son in the mix, primarily. he will be perceived and promoted as young enough with all the "conservative credentials" that are par for the course for the post-Tea Party Trump-style era of the GOP. I see Trump Jr. basically parroting Mr. 45's style and phrasing, all the way. And it will likely work in many cases.

As far as other folks, I see them running toward Trump more than not. Any sort of, (kind of) moderate Republican will be openly roasted as a "RINO" early on, and likely not get much traction. It pays to be as caustic and anti-intellectual as possible in that world now. It's not over by a long shot, as far as "defeating" Trumpism.

[seismic-2]

It may depend to some extent on whom the Democrats seem most likely to nominate in 2024. If it appears that the Democrats will nominate someone from the left wing of the party, then practically every Republican with any following at all will pounce on the opportunity to run against that person. In that case, you will have maybe two dozen GOP candidates in the first 2 or 3 caucuses and primaries, and under that scenario just about anything can happen by pure chance. Then, whoever lucks out in those early contests may well attract enough attention (and money) to go on to win the nomination.

[Kirby101]

If Biden doesn't run, Harris is the most likely Dem nominee. But the Republicans will have to start jockeying long before the Dem nominee is seen as likely.

[Malvolio]

Here are my top ten choices for the Republican Nominee for president in 2024:

10. Jeb Bush
9. Jeb Bush
8. Jeb Bush
7. Jeb Bush
6. Jeb Bush
5. Jeb Bush
4. Jeb Bush
3. Jeb Bush
2. Jeb Bush
1. Jeb Bush

Really? Jeb Bush? This guy?

[The no face guy]

2. If Trump Jr is pardoned, that will be a black mark, but we don't know if that's going to happen.

I'm not a fan of the guy, but he was a useful campaign surrogate for his father, and he does have a potential platform.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-tr...181928812.html

3. Those issues do poll well in a general election context.

I nearly had to reach for my vomit bag after reading that link. (as your a Republican) ...I will tender my response and just say that Don Junior, and the NRA, might be the perfect fit for each other.

As for issues polling well....

Politics is the marketplace of ideas, when one party dumps policies another party has an opportunity to pick them up. Trump saw a vacuum in 2016, rolled with it and won.

Unfortunately for Republicans, he turned out to be a racist unstable nut job, a sure fire way to lose the 2020 election.

[Bruce Wayne]

Whoever wins , we lose.

[seismic-2]

Does it really matter who gets the nod? Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

If Trump runs it is his. It’s toxic for a Republican to run against him. Whoever gets that nom either needs to be Trump or anointed by him

[Mister Mets]

If Biden doesn't run, Harris is the most likely Dem nominee. But the Republicans will have to start jockeying long before the Dem nominee is seen as likely.

I certainly agree that the Democrats are going to have a clear nominee.

If Biden is healthy and popular, it's tough to run against an incumbent.

If Biden decides not to run for another term in his early eighties, Harris unites too many sections of the party to face much opposition, even before taking into account the electoral record of Vice Presidents and former Vice Presidents.

I nearly had to reach for my vomit bag after reading that link. (as your a Republican) ...I will tender my response and just say that Don Junior, and the NRA, might be the perfect fit for each other.

As for issues polling well....

Politics is the marketplace of ideas, when one party dumps policies another party has an opportunity to pick them up. Trump saw a vacuum in 2016, rolled with it and won.

Unfortunately for Republicans, he turned out to be a racist unstable nut job, a sure fire way to lose the 2020 election.

I don't intend to vote for Trump Jr. I'm just pointing out that he's rumored to be trying something that gives him a platform he can use to run for office later.

It is worth noting that Trump came close in 2020. A one percent swing would have given him Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona. If it weren't for COVID-19, he would easily be running as the steward of a strong economy. But if things had gone a little differently, if he wasn't a rage-monster in the first debate, or if the news of multiple vaccines had come out a month earlier, that could have been worth one percent in swing states.

I'll note tariffs are a bad idea, but it does seem to poll well. Immigration restrictions and limited foreign intervention remain on the table for the next Republican candidate, and these remain relatively popular issues, especially if there's someone with more restraint than Trump.