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  1. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    1. Well, the big problem of the China release is also influenced heavily by the day and date release. BW's China box office will likely be hampered heavily by the day and date release as piracy is a big factor there and thanks to the Disney+ release every MCU fan in China can already watch an illegal copy of BW in high quality. Under normal circumstances 200 million from China would have been a reasonable expectation, we'll see how much it'll make in the end, I don't think it will come close to that number due to pirated copies already flooding the country.

    The delay itself wouldn't be a big problem by the way. Infinity War's China release also happened some weeks after the US start but as IW wasn't released on Disney+ simultaneously there were no high quality copies of it already available prior to its China release so it didn't affect the box office result. So if the China result of BW disappoints one can clearly blame the Disney+ release.

    2. The 365 million for Godzilla vs Kong is the international box office, not worldwide. So at the moment BW is roughly 200 million shy of it. Worldwide GvK stands at 465 million.

    I used the international box office because GvK only had a day and date streaming release in the USA as HBO Max wasn't available in other countries at that point, thus GvK's international cume is not affected by a simultaneous streaming release, whereas Disney+ is available in many markets and hampering BW's international box office. What's also important: Warner was even smart enough to release GvK a couple days earlier in China than domestic so that pirated copies from HBO Max couldn't affect the opening weekend in China and it paid off.

    I still can't believe how naive Disney approached the China release of BW. Everyone in the business knew months ago that China would put an embargo on foreign movies for July, yet Chapek obviously didn't see a problem in that, whereas Warner showed awareness of the piracy problem that comes with a day and date release and acted accordingly.
    Oh wow...I didn't know GvK did that well WW. BW is far away from it. I stand corrected.

    I also didn't know Disney handled the China release like that.

  2. #287
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    1. Well, the big problem of the China release is also influenced heavily by the day and date release. BW's China box office will likely be hampered heavily by the day and date release as piracy is a big factor there and thanks to the Disney+ release every MCU fan in China can already watch an illegal copy of BW in high quality. Under normal circumstances 200 million from China would have been a reasonable expectation, we'll see how much it'll make in the end, I don't think it will come close to that number due to pirated copies already flooding the country.

    The delay itself wouldn't be a big problem by the way. Infinity War's China release also happened some weeks after the US start but as IW wasn't released on Disney+ simultaneously there were no high quality copies of it already available prior to its China release so it didn't affect the box office result. So if the China result of BW disappoints one can clearly blame the Disney+ release.

    2. The 365 million for Godzilla vs Kong is the international box office, not worldwide. So at the moment BW is roughly 200 million shy of it. Worldwide GvK stands at 465 million.

    I used the international box office because GvK only had a day and date streaming release in the USA as HBO Max wasn't available in other countries at that point, thus GvK's international cume is not affected by a simultaneous streaming release, whereas Disney+ is available in many markets and hampering BW's international box office. What's also important: Warner was even smart enough to release GvK a couple days earlier in China than domestic so that pirated copies from HBO Max couldn't affect the opening weekend in China and it paid off.

    I still can't believe how naive Disney approached the China release of BW. Everyone in the business knew months ago that China would put an embargo on foreign movies for July, yet Chapek obviously didn't see a problem in that, whereas Warner showed awareness of the piracy problem that comes with a day and date release and acted accordingly.

    Honestly Disney made the decision to do day and date streaming knowing how it could hurt box office. They sat down and did the math. They figured whatever we lose on international box office and China specifically we will make up in streaming. I don't know if it worked out for them, and no one has the the figures except for 60 million the first 3 days. So they may have made the right decision they may not have. Only they know.

  3. #288

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    Quote Originally Posted by inisideguy View Post
    Honestly Disney made the decision to do day and date streaming knowing how it could hurt box office. They sat down and did the math. They figured whatever we lose on international box office and China specifically we will make up in streaming. I don't know if it worked out for them, and no one has the the figures except for 60 million the first 3 days. So they may have made the right decision they may not have. Only they know.
    Yeah, because Disney never makes wrong decisions. We are talking about the company that managed to turn Star Wars, a franchise that was basically immune to producing box office bombs, into a franchise that released a total bomb like Solo and a disappointment like The Rise of Skywalker.

    Now Scarlett is even suing Disney because of the Disney+ release. Defend them all you want, that decision was a disaster.

    Edit: Just read the lawsuit. If their claims are correct, then Disney execs did the math. But nor for how much the company would make with the movie, but rather how much would go into their own pockets. Releasing it on Disney+ gave Chapek et al. huge bonuses because of the stock boost.

    Source: https://deadline.com/2021/07/scarlet...it-1234802440/
    Last edited by chicago_bastard; 07-29-2021 at 11:53 AM.
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

  4. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    Yeah, because Disney never makes wrong decisions. We are talking about the company that managed to turn Star Wars, a franchise that was basically immune to producing box office bombs, into a franchise that released a total bomb like Solo and a disappointment like The Rise of Skywalker.

    Now Scarlett is even suing Disney because of the Disney+ release. Defend them all you want, that decision was a disaster.
    You must live in a world where The Holiday Special doesn't exist. Or the Ewok TV movies. Or the Droids and Ewoks cartoons.

    4 out of 5 Disney Star Wars made over a billion $ at the box office. They have also successfully made live action shows, something that Lucas was never able to do.

    The biggest mistake Disney made with the Black Widow release was not renegotiating with SJ. The idea that the PVOD release hurt the overall revenues is just speculation devoid of any actual support.

  5. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    You must live in a world where The Holiday Special doesn't exist. Or the Ewok TV movies. Or the Droids and Ewoks cartoons.

    4 out of 5 Disney Star Wars made over a billion $ at the box office. They have also successfully made live action shows, something that Lucas was never able to do.

    The biggest mistake Disney made with the Black Widow release was not renegotiating with SJ. The idea that the PVOD release hurt the overall revenues is just speculation devoid of any actual support.
    Yeah for this lawsuit to get this far without renegotiation or settlement must mean Disney thinks the money she's asking for is worth the battle. I don't see how a drawn out fight that leaves an A list actress who participated in Billions of your storylines and films is a good look. Theatre owners and a lot of directors are already pissed their films are being streamed same day.

    Pre Covid she was clearly looking at a payout based on a billion dollar box office run if her contract was based on box office. Now even if Disney didn't do same day it wouldn't have made that much just because nothing is making that much and theatres are still in limbo with Delta variants etc.

  6. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    Yeah, because Disney never makes wrong decisions. We are talking about the company that managed to turn Star Wars, a franchise that was basically immune to producing box office bombs, into a franchise that released a total bomb like Solo and a disappointment like The Rise of Skywalker.

    Now Scarlett is even suing Disney because of the Disney+ release. Defend them all you want, that decision was a disaster.

    Edit: Just read the lawsuit. If their claims are correct, then Disney execs did the math. But nor for how much the company would make with the movie, but rather how much would go into their own pockets. Releasing it on Disney+ gave Chapek et al. huge bonuses because of the stock boost.

    Source: https://deadline.com/2021/07/scarlet...it-1234802440/

    I didn't say they made a right or wrong decision. I said I don't know. Only they know. And she might have a valid claim.

  7. #292

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    You must live in a world where The Holiday Special doesn't exist. Or the Ewok TV movies. Or the Droids and Ewoks cartoons.

    4 out of 5 Disney Star Wars made over a billion $ at the box office. They have also successfully made live action shows, something that Lucas was never able to do.

    The biggest mistake Disney made with the Black Widow release was not renegotiating with SJ. The idea that the PVOD release hurt the overall revenues is just speculation devoid of any actual support.
    What are you talking about, how can TV movies be box office bombs? And what have live action shows got to do with a discussion about box office?

    One must be in complete denial to not see the correlation between a parallel streaming release and the box office results. I covered some obvious points in earlier posts in this thread so I don't have to repeat them.
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

  8. #293
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    What are you talking about, how can TV movies be box office bombs? And what have live action shows got to do with a discussion about box office?
    Acting like Star Wars was a franchise that never had a misstep until Disney bought it, is not correct. Lucas had both artistic and commercial failures long before Disney showed up. Furthermore, Star Wars is a multi media franchise. Disney has expanded the animation, movie, and live action streaming to great success even with the failure of Solo. To focus only on one aspect while ignoring the whole seems like cherry picking to support a weak argument.

    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    One must be in complete denial to not see the correlation between a parallel streaming release and the box office results. I covered some obvious points in earlier posts in this thread so I don't have to repeat them.
    And when you ignore the Covid pandemic you are not only in denial, you're delusional. Theaters are closed or under restrictions in North America and internationally. There are still large segments of the population unvaccinated. And the Delta variant is hitting many places in the US hard. A significant percentage of the movie going public are still not ready to go back to the theater. Despite all of this, you seem convinced that PVOD and PVOD alone is the cause for lowered box office performance.

    The full impact on the industry from everything that has happened since 2019 will take years to figure out. Claiming definitively that streaming is the most important factor (or only factor) is unsupported by actual evidence.

  9. #294
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    Yeah, blaming the drop on not having a theatrical window makes sense for theater owners to harp on as a bargaining chip with studious...but isn't something that should be believed by anyone else.
    The money it did make is astounding given the current climate, and its not something that could realistically be expected to be sustained; that 80 million it made was all fueled by those hardcore fans that were going to go no matter what...but they only make up a small portion of the over all general viewing audience and that general population isn't ready to go back to normal yet so there was no other group to replace the hardcore viewers who came out to see it the first weekend.

  10. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by thwhtGuardian View Post
    Yeah, blaming the drop on not having a theatrical window makes sense for theater owners to harp on as a bargaining chip with studious...but isn't something that should be believed by anyone else.
    The money it did make is astounding given the current climate, and its not something that could realistically be expected to be sustained; that 80 million it made was all fueled by those hardcore fans that were going to go no matter what...but they only make up a small portion of the over all general viewing audience and that general population isn't ready to go back to normal yet so there was no other group to replace the hardcore viewers who came out to see it the first weekend.

    Exactly all anyone has to do is look at every other movie in this environment. Basically people want Disney to release movies into a covid environment on screens only so that more people might get sick. If movie theaters were requiring everyone be vaxed then there is an argument there. But right now movie theaters want these studios to release movies like its 2019. That aint gonna happen.

  11. #296

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    Acting like Star Wars was a franchise that never had a misstep until Disney bought it, is not correct. Lucas had both artistic and commercial failures long before Disney showed up. Furthermore, Star Wars is a multi media franchise. Disney has expanded the animation, movie, and live action streaming to great success even with the failure of Solo. To focus only on one aspect while ignoring the whole seems like cherry picking to support a weak argument.



    And when you ignore the Covid pandemic you are not only in denial, you're delusional. Theaters are closed or under restrictions in North America and internationally. There are still large segments of the population unvaccinated. And the Delta variant is hitting many places in the US hard. A significant percentage of the movie going public are still not ready to go back to the theater. Despite all of this, you seem convinced that PVOD and PVOD alone is the cause for lowered box office performance.

    The full impact on the industry from everything that has happened since 2019 will take years to figure out. Claiming definitively that streaming is the most important factor (or only factor) is unsupported by actual evidence.
    I don't have to compare BW's box office to pre-pandemic times, I can compare it to movies that were also released during the pandemic and did much better:

    F9: 620 million worldwide
    Godzilla vs Kong: 465 million worldwide (note: it was only released in the US on HBO Max, in the rest of the world, where it made the by far biggest chunk (78%) of its money, it had an exclusive window in theatres)
    Black Widow: 320 million worldwide

    Let's look at some factors here: It can't be denied that the MCU is a bigger franchise than the other two. Out ot these three movies BW has the best critical reception and also has better scores in viewer ratings than the other two. Furthermore in all polls it was the most anticipated movie of the summer, see here for example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...er-movie-poll/

    And yet you wanna tell me that a movie that belongs to the biggest franchise right now, that was the most anticipated summer blockbuster beforehand and that is better received by audiences than the other two, couldn't have made as much money as these due to the pandemic, when the other two were also released in the same pandemic? How does that make sense? The biggest factor is that the other two didn't have a day and date streaming release in most markets. It's simple as that.

    I never claimed that BW would have made Captain Marvel numbers in the current environment but doing better than a movie of the Monsterverse that had more or less the same obstacles should be a given. I mean if you had told someone beforehand that GvK would beat BW at the worldwide box office they would have laughed in your face for such an outrageous claim.

    And before you come up with China just scroll to the top of this page, I already covered how the Disney+ release could also hamper the China box office of BW so the likely scenario of a weak result there is mostly on the day and date release, too. Even after the China release it will barely top GvK, if at all, and still be far from F9's result. Are you seriously telling me that this is the best an MCU movie can do right now?
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

  12. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by chicago_bastard View Post
    I don't have to compare BW's box office to pre-pandemic times, I can compare it to movies that were also released during the pandemic and did much better:

    F9: 620 million worldwide
    Godzilla vs Kong: 465 million worldwide (note: it was only released in the US on HBO Max, in the rest of the world, where it made the by far biggest chunk (78%) of its money, it had an exclusive window in theatres)
    Black Widow: 320 million worldwide

    Let's look at some factors here: It can't be denied that the MCU is a bigger franchise than the other two. Out ot these three movies BW has the best critical reception and also has better scores in viewer ratings than the other two. Furthermore in all polls it was the most anticipated movie of the summer, see here for example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...er-movie-poll/

    And yet you wanna tell me that a movie that belongs to the biggest franchise right now, that was the most anticipated summer blockbuster beforehand and that is better received by audiences than the other two, couldn't have made as much money as these due to the pandemic, when the other two were also released in the same pandemic? How does that make sense? The biggest factor is that the other two didn't have a day and date streaming release in most markets. It's simple as that.

    I never claimed that BW would have made Captain Marvel numbers in the current environment but doing better than a movie of the Monsterverse that had more or less the same obstacles should be a given. I mean if you had told someone beforehand that GvK would beat BW at the worldwide box office they would have laughed in your face for such an outrageous claim.

    And before you come up with China just scroll to the top of this page, I already covered how the Disney+ release could also hamper the China box office of BW so the likely scenario of a weak result there is mostly on the day and date release, too. Even after the China release it will barely top GvK, if at all, and still be far from F9's result. Are you seriously telling me that this is the best an MCU movie can do right now?


    That is an interesting take, but one I do not agree with.

    1. Box office performance is not a zero sum game. The success of GvK and F9 does not mean that every other movie is a failure. The idea that an MCU movie must be the most successful at the box office or it's a failure is not reflected in the actual history of the studio. Since 2008, Marvel Studios has released movies in 11 years. Marvel had the top grossing movie in only 3 of those years. Marvel not having the highest grossing movie this year is not an aberration, it is the norm.
    2. The MCU had a creative high point in 2018/2019. A lower BO performance can be seen as a Mean Reversion, not a collapse.
    3. You are comparing movies that have been in the theater longer. F9 has been out for weeks longer and GvK has already had its full theatrical run.
    4. BW has not opened in all territories yet. While you say you "addressed" China, you only made a prediction that dismissed its importance. Until BW actually opens and closes in China, any prediction is just speculation at this point.
    5. The MCU has many individual franchises with different performances. Solo movies can break records like Black Panther and Captain Marvel, but they can also have more modest successes like Doctor Strange and Ant Man.
    6. While you deem the effect of Premiere Access as a disaster for the BO, you are ignoring the benefits. $60 Million PA revenue is a new revenue stream for the studio that should be included in BO performance. Considering that Disney gets 100% of PA revenue, it has a much greater impact dollar for dollar over the theatrical revenue. Using the 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 allocation for Domestic, International, and China proceeds, that $60 million PA revenue is the equivalent of $120 million domestic, $180 million international, or $240 million china for the studio.
    7. There are still real world events in the past month that affect movie theaters. Increased restrictions and fear of public gathering have been increased factors in the last couple of weeks alone.

    Until Black Widow has had a full theatrical run and all factors are taken into account, no one can truly say what affect the PA release has had on the success of Black Widow. Your view, while well written and presented, only look at specific pieces and not the marketplace as a whole.

  13. #298

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    That is an interesting take, but one I do not agree with.

    1. Box office performance is not a zero sum game. The success of GvK and F9 does not mean that every other movie is a failure. The idea that an MCU movie must be the most successful at the box office or it's a failure is not reflected in the actual history of the studio. Since 2008, Marvel Studios has released movies in 11 years. Marvel had the top grossing movie in only 3 of those years. Marvel not having the highest grossing movie this year is not an aberration, it is the norm.
    2. The MCU had a creative high point in 2018/2019. A lower BO performance can be seen as a Mean Reversion, not a collapse.
    3. You are comparing movies that have been in the theater longer. F9 has been out for weeks longer and GvK has already had its full theatrical run.
    4. BW has not opened in all territories yet. While you say you "addressed" China, you only made a prediction that dismissed its importance. Until BW actually opens and closes in China, any prediction is just speculation at this point.
    5. The MCU has many individual franchises with different performances. Solo movies can break records like Black Panther and Captain Marvel, but they can also have more modest successes like Doctor Strange and Ant Man.
    6. While you deem the effect of Premiere Access as a disaster for the BO, you are ignoring the benefits. $60 Million PA revenue is a new revenue stream for the studio that should be included in BO performance. Considering that Disney gets 100% of PA revenue, it has a much greater impact dollar for dollar over the theatrical revenue. Using the 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 allocation for Domestic, International, and China proceeds, that $60 million PA revenue is the equivalent of $120 million domestic, $180 million international, or $240 million china for the studio.
    7. There are still real world events in the past month that affect movie theaters. Increased restrictions and fear of public gathering have been increased factors in the last couple of weeks alone.

    Until Black Widow has had a full theatrical run and all factors are taken into account, no one can truly say what affect the PA release has had on the success of Black Widow. Your view, while well written and presented, only look at specific pieces and not the marketplace as a whole.
    Of course MCU movies don't need to top the year ranking to be a success, but when MCU movies weren't at the top they usually lost out to other juggernaut franchises like Star Wars. Monsterverse movies on the other hand don't belong to the category of box office juggernauts, the most successful Monsterverse movie made below 600 million worldwide in non-pandemic times and thus less than Ant-Man and the Wasp, which is the lowest bar for an MCU movie in the last couple of years. So saying that an MCU movie should be able to beat a Monsterverse movie comfortably isn't a stretch by any means. That GvK made only 100 million less than the most successful movie of its franchise and even 70 million more than its direct predecessor shows that the pandemic alone is not a sufficient reason to explain a possible BW result that is far below comparable MCU movies.

    Disney doesn't get 100% of the PA revenue, they have to give a share to platform providers like Roku or Apple, also Disney's domestic share with theaters is higher than 60%. But the point is legit, Disney's share from PA is bigger than from a theater ticket. Still, the 180 million box office on opening weekend brought Disney more revenue than these 60 million. And that is only the first weekend, in subsequent weeks the theatrical hold should be better as you still get money from repeated viewings there whereas Disney+ streamers don't pay for watching the movie again.

    I have the feeling people underestimate how important repeated viewings from fans are for MCU movies. Within a year Endgame made roughly 800 million more than Infinity War. That is a huge jump. I don't think that so many casual moviegoers became suddenly interested in the MCU within a year, so the difference stems to a good part from fans watching the movie again and again. With a Disney+ release you lose that revenue. Of course I'm not saying BW would have had repeated viewings that come anywhere close to those Endgame had, but the number would likely have been significant enough to make for better holds in subsequent weeks.

    We can agree on waiting until BW's run including China is finished to then look at the final numbers. That said Disney is really doing their best to cannibalize the movie's box office. Recently they announced that BW's digital release on all platforms (Amazon, Apple, and so on) will be on August 10 already, so I'm really doubting the final box office will look much better.

    Some days ago I was joking that it almost seems that Disney doesn't want this movie to make money at the box office given all these hampering decisions and now with the lawsuit it appears that it may really be in their interest that people watch it via other ways rather than in theaters.
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

  14. #299
    My Face Is Up Here Powerboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    You must live in a world where The Holiday Special doesn't exist. Or the Ewok TV movies. Or the Droids and Ewoks cartoons.

    4 out of 5 Disney Star Wars made over a billion $ at the box office. They have also successfully made live action shows, something that Lucas was never able to do.

    The biggest mistake Disney made with the Black Widow release was not renegotiating with SJ. The idea that the PVOD release hurt the overall revenues is just speculation devoid of any actual support.
    You took the words right out of my mouth. Yet another "It made a billion dollars but I personally didn't like it and a bunch of youtubers didn't so we declare it a flop".

    Yes, they should have been honest about what they were going to do and negotiated on that basis.

    with Natasha's death, I suspect this may well have been her last MCU movie, taking place in the past, so SJ probably isn't worried that this will severe her ties to Disney.
    Power with Girl is better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Powerboy View Post
    You took the words right out of my mouth. Yet another "It made a billion dollars but I personally didn't like it and a bunch of youtubers didn't so we declare it a flop".
    I didn't call it a flop, I called it a disappointment, which it clearly is. When the first installment of the series makes 2 billion and four years later the grand finale of the saga barely makes a billion that is definitely not what Disney calls a success. If the next Avengers movie makes only one billion it will also be called a disappointment.
    Tolstoy will live forever. Some people do. But that's not enough. It's not the length of a life that matters, just the depth of it. The chances we take. The paths we choose. How we go on when our hearts break. Hearts always break and so we bend with our hearts. And we sway. But in the end what matters is that we loved... and lived.

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