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  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by green_garnish View Post
    With ‘Black Widow’ ticket buying suddenly drying up, growing questions for Disney’s Marvel about what did it in
    By Steven Zeitchik

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...l-black-widow/


    There are always going to be people writing online about stuff like this. Here is my position. If one of these writers can advise me what movie is going to do well during this mess I am all ears.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by inisideguy View Post
    There are always going to be people writing online about stuff like this. Here is my position. If one of these writers can advise me what movie is going to do well during this mess I am all ears.
    If any movie is going to do well, one would expect a Marvel movie to have the best chance. At least not bomb.

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wildling View Post
    But it's also all about expectations. Cruella even before tha pandemic wouldn't have been necessarily hoped by the studio to debut with let's say 150 million in North America because according to Forbes its budget was 100 million (half of Black Widow) and it's not even a remake of a Disney classic but a prequel/villain origin story angle while BW is not only MCU but has the same ScarJo people already know and like. You can't use the same ruler to measure every movie.

    Anyway Cruella made over twice its budget in worldwide theaters alone not including Disney Plus sales (or whatever piracy stole). BW hasn't done that. I'd have thought all along it would easily happen, and might still happen, just hasn't happened yet.

    Also A Quiet Place Part II didn't drop massively either. People fussed about the 2nd weekend dropping more than the original, but Conjuring 3 happened to debut that weekend. Direct genre tentpole competition.
    Cruella didn't really open big. Not BW big.

    My point is, no movie has opened to $80 m (correct me if I'm wrong) since the pandemic and all the lockdowns. So, no movie has maintained grosses as high as what BW was expected to hold.

    Now, we can speculate as to why it dropped as much as it did but I personally can't read much into it at the moment. There are so many unusual factors (pandemic, partial lockdowns in Canada, day and date streaming) to make any conclusive statement IMO.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by green_garnish View Post
    If any movie is going to do well, one would expect a Marvel movie to have the best chance.

    Yea but I what one considers doing well has been utterly warped by the pandemic and same day streaming. All things being equal when is the next Marvel move in sept or oct right? Its Shang Chi I think. As of right now they are saying 45 day exclusive to the theaters. If this stupid pandemic is like it is right now Disney is gonna change that.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Cruella didn't really open big. Not BW big.

    My point is, no movie has opened to $80 m (correct me if I'm wrong) since the pandemic and all the lockdowns. So, no movie has maintained grosses as high as what BW was expected to hold.

    Now, we can speculate as to why it dropped as much as it did but I personally can't read much into it at the moment. There are so many unusual factors (pandemic, partial lockdowns in Canada, day and date streaming) to make any conclusive statement IMO.

    Yep. No one can even begin to compare BW to any other Marvel movie opening. I mean what do we even think Snake Eyes or Jungle book is going to open at? Lord knows what this pandemic is going to be like in the states over the next 3 weeks. Florida just had the most recorded cases since January today.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by inisideguy View Post
    Yep. No one can even begin to compare BW to any other Marvel movie opening. I mean what do we even think Snake Eyes or Jungle book is going to open at? Lord knows what this pandemic is going to be like in the states over the next 3 weeks. Florida just had the most recorded cases since January today.
    Exactly.

    Even up here in Canada, there are growing worries about the spread of the Delta variant.

    Myself and my entire family have started masking up again.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Cruella didn't really open big. Not BW big.

    My point is, no movie has opened to $80 m (correct me if I'm wrong) since the pandemic and all the lockdowns. So, no movie has maintained grosses as high as what BW was expected to hold.

    Now, we can speculate as to why it dropped as much as it did but I personally can't read much into it at the moment. There are so many unusual factors (pandemic, partial lockdowns in Canada, day and date streaming) to make any conclusive statement IMO.
    And I pointed out why it didn't need to. My own point is that evey movie dropping huge on 2nd weekend (and continuing to do so afterwards) is untrue or not 100% guaranteed only because of the times we currently live in, I proved it wrong with just 2 movie examples off the top of my head (one of them same-day streaming available, the other one with a theaters-first window). And in A Quiet Place's case, we even had pre-pandemic industry tracking available before theaters shut down. When the movie actually opened, it wasn't very far off and will end up being close to the original in North America (and maybe worldwide) theaters alone. It's no wonder a new movie is announced and dated. What solo Avengers hero (or recent solo MCU hero) movie will BW end up closer to? That's the question to get answered later.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Exactly.

    Even up here in Canada, there are growing worries about the spread of the Delta variant.

    Myself and my entire family have started masking up again.
    I know dude. And you guys are more vaccinated than we are. What is the status on movie theaters up there? Are they all open?

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wildling View Post
    And I pointed out why it didn't need to. My own point is that evey movie dropping huge on 2nd weekend (and continuing to do so afterwards) is untrue or not 100% guaranteed only because of the times we currently live in, I proved it wrong with just 2 movie examples off the top of my head (one of them same-day streaming available, the other one with a theaters-first window). And in A Quiet Place's case, we even had pre-pandemic industry tracking available before theaters shut down. When the movie actually opened, it wasn't very far off and will end up being close to the original in North America (and maybe worldwide) theaters alone. It's no wonder a new movie is announced and dated. What solo Avengers hero (or recent solo MCU hero) movie will BW end up closer to? That's the question to get answered later.
    I'm not saying that every movie will have massive drops.

    I'm saying that no movie that has opened anything close to BW has maintained relatively high weekend grosses.

    Or more like this, has any other movie released this year had second weekend grosses of over $25-$30m? I'm not sure this.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    I'm not saying that every movie will have massive drops.

    I'm saying that no movie that has opened anything close to BW has maintained relatively high weekend grosses.

    Or more like this, has any other movie released this year had second weekend grosses of over $25-$30m? I'm not sure this.

    Nothing its actually really bad. And with Jungle cruise Disney is also doing same day streaming. I don't know wtf that will even open at let alone drop to. These movies are just getting hammered. Heck if Jungle Cruise does Cruella numbers Disney might be happy.

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    Exactly.

    Even up here in Canada, there are growing worries about the spread of the Delta variant.

    Myself and my entire family have started masking up again.
    I never stopped.

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by inisideguy View Post
    I know dude. And you guys are more vaccinated than we are. What is the status on movie theaters up there? Are they all open?
    No, they aren't.

    Some provinces have opened up theatres and some haven't.

    Ontario (the most highly populated province) just opened theatres last week with a maximum capacity of 50%.

    Basically, the box office is comatose up here.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    No, they aren't.

    Some provinces have opened up theatres and some haven't.

    Ontario (the most highly populated province) just opened theatres last week with a maximum capacity of 50%.

    Basically, the box office is comatose up here.

    Yea. Thats what I thought. Sigh.

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by choptop View Post
    I never stopped.
    Funny enough, we stopped briefly because most folks up north are vaccinated.

    But with the delta variant coming and this "lambda" thing, we've quickly reverted to the new status quo.

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by Username taken View Post
    I'm not saying that every movie will have massive drops.

    I'm saying that no movie that has opened anything close to BW has maintained relatively high weekend grosses.

    Or more like this, has any other movie released this year had second weekend grosses of over $25-$30m? I'm not sure this.
    That figure seems arbitrary to me, but Fast 9 did 23 million on 2nd weekend (not including 4th of July Monday which would raise it to 29 million) which seems close enough to not nitpick about.

    What's more important is that Fast 9 is making around 3 times its budget in theaters around the globe with a budget similar to Black Widow. It will bring the franchise out of the pandemic (or the middle of the pandemic) saving face because the franchise was going to get direct sequels either way. The last Conjuring is currently doing a similar thing. Black Widow is an odd way to start a Phase but if Shang-Chi and Eternals (which IIRC will have a theaters first window) do better or as good (I mean they're not Avengers members), it might not matter on the long run.

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