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  1. #46
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    I think so.

    The work on the vaccine has been revolutionary. It allows for faster development in the future.

    In the United States, even with the Delta variant, people who are vaccinated are less likely to get Covid, less likely to transmit it, and less likely to get sick from it.

    It will take a few years for the vaccinations to reach everybody in the world, and there will likely be a need for booster shots, but things have gotten better and will continue to get better.

    It may never go away completely, but it could be the equivalent of the flu.

    Quote Originally Posted by worstblogever View Post
    1. Get vaccinated. (If you got Pfizer, be ready to get the booster shot when it comes out, as it is being set up to further protect you from variants.)
    2. Tell people you know to get vaccinated.
    3. Mock those who dig in, argue against science and don't for being the selfish twits they are. This thing will hang around in the populace until they get their act together.
    4. Repeat #1-3 as much as you have to until it's over.

    In the U.S. we're still going to see a bump in the fall, likely because the vaccine has to be cleared for children under 12, and kids are headed back to school to be in cramped quarters and spread it around. Including the variants.
    Studies have suggested a low risk of spread in schools.

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...spread-schools

    This might change a bit now that kids are the main group that isn't vaccinated.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainEurope View Post
    I like what Macron is doing, and he gave a great speech to sell it. It's basically a small change: You will need either a vaccination or a fresh test result to participate in all kinds of parts of life (restaurants, travel, theaters etc), but ... the tests will no longer be free. 29 bucks for a test if you want to go for a coffee (which can already cost € 7,- in Paris). Or get the vaccine, which is free. Macron asked: "Why should we who did our civic duty and get vaccinated have to stay home to protect our children? Let those stay home who refuse to get vaccinated."

    There are now voices here in Germany asking for the same. I think it might be the only way to end covid.
    That may be a good idea.

    A problem in the US is that it's more difficult to establish if someone was vaccinated, so I'm not sure that works as well here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kieran_Frost View Post
    Short answer: no.
    Long answer: no, but it will get better. It will evolve, adapt, and life will sooner or later get back to a state of normality it once was, but this is a long way off. 2022 at the earliest.


    This is a terrible suggestion! Sorry, absolutely not! I can't stand anti-vaxxers, but let's face reality: we want as many to change their minds, or NOT change their minds but still get the vaccine. Here's how you don't get people to change their minds: mock them, to p*ss them off, so they dig their heels in even more.

    Seriously, this is a horrible idea! Rational discussion and facts will help change more minds than mockery and shame. Not all, but maybe enough to swing the balance. Please, PLEASE don't make people dig their heels in more. Be better than pettiness.
    #truthbombOFLOVE
    That's a good point that mockery is not effective at changing minds. It may feel good, but it can be someone putting their sense of superiority ahead of results.

    I am curious if anyone here has changed their minds on a contentious politically loaded issue because of mockery.


    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    Again, everything would be open by now if we had taken the lockdown seriously from the get go instead of acting like pretending the virus didn’t exist was actually a viable option. And every time we rush to reopen again, we prolong the pandemic more. Get mad at me all you want, that won’t change the facts.
    A full lockdown would be difficult in a country the size of the United States.

    And we'd remain vulnerable to outbreaks as long as it gets in from someone else.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce Wayne View Post
    The barriers to mass producing enough for billions is not just a few patents. Moderna for example announced it's not enforcing its COVID patents. It's not enough of the vaccine producing infrastructure in the first place to produce billions of vaccines. You can invalidate all the patents they want and it still won't change the fact that there are bottlenecks for critical tools and personnel to be able to use this recently developed technology to develop vaccines (adenovirus vectors/mrna). You don't seem to have an inkling of the tremendous resources needed to make billions of vaccines or that the barriers to this are not just patents and intellectual property.
    An additional issue with changing patent rules after the fact is that it may discourage companies from getting involved in future vaccine efforts.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  2. #47
    CBR's Good Fairy Kieran_Frost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by achilles View Post
    Well, things are different now, our tech is better, so it might be a bit quicker, but really, this is a long haul thing, so patience is probably a good idea. Once good oral vaccines that don't need special storage and can be easily taken by anyone with no training...things will pick up. Along with possible boosters, that's the next development to look for.
    Oh that is very true! We have come a long way, so hopefully can do it a little faster than two decades Two decades of Covid... CHRIST! The very thought makes me so depressed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    A problem in the US is that it's more difficult to establish if someone was vaccinated, so I'm not sure that works as well here.
    Oh, how come? At-least in this country I'm sure everyone vaccinated has it on their medical records. Or do you mean 'establish someone coming into your shop is vaccinated'? If so, ahhhh, true. We don't want vaccination passports.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    That's a good point that mockery is not effective at changing minds. It may feel good, but it can be someone putting their sense of superiority ahead of results.
    I find a lot of 'white knighting' online at-least, is more about feeling or sounding morally superior, than ACTUALLY wanting to be a constructive change to inspire others. Quite a few vegans fall into this (no shade to vegans, it's literally the first example I knew to pop into my head). They say they want to encourage people to go vegan, but their methods of aggressive name calling and shaming... is just the absolute worst way to get people on your side or inclined to listen.

    The way I explain this to people is in an oversimplified way, to hopefully get them to realise why their tactics aren't working:

    QUESTION: what is more likely to get people to lower their defenses, and actual open their ears:
    a) I understand where you're coming from, but I'd love to talk specifically about a few point I'd disagree with...
    b) listen dumb c**t, here's why you're a f**king tw*t...

    And yet time and again it's OPTION B the 'white knights' choose to use on-line, which tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about their true morality and motivation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    I am curious if anyone here has changed their minds on a contentious politically loaded issue because of mockery.
    I doubt anyone would say yes. Hell, it's hard enough to get anyone to admit they were wrong or change their mind, but to achieve it by mockery??? Nah, never gonna happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    A full lockdown would be difficult in a country the size of the United States.
    And we'd remain vulnerable to outbreaks as long as it gets in from someone else.
    An additional issue with changing patent rules after the fact is that it may discourage companies from getting involved in future vaccine efforts.
    Agreed. To many things still need to happen, which means millions still out working. The only countries that can truly implement a full FULL lockdown effectively are either a) very very small b) have a... how to say this politely? Have a brutal control over their people and no qualms or political backlash from MAKING the people do exactly what they want. [Starts with a 'Ch', ends in an 'ina']
    Last edited by Kieran_Frost; 07-26-2021 at 06:10 AM.
    "We are Shakespeare. We are Michelangelo. We are Tchaikovsky. We are Turing. We are Mercury. We are Wilde. We are Lincoln, Lorca, Leonardo da Vinci. We are Alexander the Great. We are Fredrick the Great. We are Rustin. We are Addams. We are Marsha! Marsha Marsha Marsha! We so generous, we DeGeneres. We are Ziggy Stardust hooked to the silver screen. Controversially we are Malcolm X. We are Plato. We are Aristotle. We are RuPaul, god dammit! And yes, we are Woolf."

  3. #48
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    I'm not sure, but I think our HIIPA laws, (or whatever the acronym is), might get in the way of anything like a national vaccine registry. Also likely other laws.

  4. #49
    Astonishing Member babyblob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by achilles View Post
    I'm not sure, but I think our HIIPA laws, (or whatever the acronym is), might get in the way of anything like a national vaccine registry. Also likely other laws.
    I dont think a national vaccine registry will never happen and to be honest nor should it. I get wanting to know who has had the vaccine. But if you open the door to look into people's medical history for that then a good lawyer would argue that someone can look into a person's medical history for anything in the name of public health. What is a homophopic boss finds out a worker is gay? Well for the sake of public safety we have to find out if he has aids and is putting his other workers at risk. Kind of an extreme situation i know but there are lots of people who would take advantage of something like this for that reason or a who slew of other dumbass reasons. A politician doesnt like a political opponent? Sue for his medical records/mental health medical records etc.. for dirt. People's medical records including what vaccines they have had are secret for a reason and they should stay that way.
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  5. #50
    Astonishing Member Zelena's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kieran_Frost View Post
    Agreed. To many things still need to happen, which means millions still out working. The only countries that can truly implement a full FULL lockdown effectively are either a) very very small b) have a... how to say this politely? Have a brutal control over their people and no qualms or political backlash from MAKING the people do exactly what they want. [Starts with a 'Ch', ends in an 'ina']
    There isn’t a clear separation between the countries who have done a “full full lockdown” and the other ones… Australia is a democratic country and its lockdowns are rather tough… (for a democratic country).

    In democracies, lockdowns are usually accepted only for a while and if the situation really needs it. A lot of countries cannot implement them because they are economically impossible (lack of a social net). France’s first lockdown has been harder than the following ones: the capacity of the economy to take the hit has waned.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    That's not an argument for not lifting the IP restrictions, that's an argument that we need to be doing more in addition to that in order to provide these countries with the resources and expertise needed to set up their own vaccine production.
    If setting these things up were so easy, pharmaceutical companies would have done all of this years ago to lower costs. The reason that highly specialized vaccine production exists in some countries and not in others is because those countries supported these industries through money/tax credits and had an educated and specialized workforce necessarily for production to take place. Those conditions don't exist in many developing countries. If movement of global capital was so easy, the differences between developing and developed countries probably wouldn't exist.

    And if we're not going to do that, the least we could do is to not tut-tut at these poor shithole countries who are simply too backwards and corrupt to get the virus under control as if it were some type of intractable problem, because it absolutely is within our power to help them fix it.
    Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam all demonstrates nations can beat the virus without developed nations coming in to play White Savior. The coronavirus problems in countries like Brazil or India are a result of bad leadership and developed countries shouldn't be obligated to fix these problems.

  7. #52
    Ultimate Member Mister Mets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zelena View Post
    There isn’t a clear separation between the countries who have done a “full full lockdown” and the other ones… Australia is a democratic country and its lockdowns are rather tough… (for a democratic country).

    In democracies, lockdowns are usually accepted only for a while and if the situation really needs it. A lot of countries cannot implement them because they are economically impossible (lack of a social net). France’s first lockdown has been harder than the following ones: the capacity of the economy to take the hit has waned.
    Island nations can also keep out people more easily than most.

    Quote Originally Posted by achilles View Post
    I'm not sure, but I think our HIIPA laws, (or whatever the acronym is), might get in the way of anything like a national vaccine registry. Also likely other laws.
    One specific complication is that the Covid vaccines are not yet FDA approved. That makes it more difficult legally to make it mandatory.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kieran_Frost View Post
    Oh, how come? At-least in this country I'm sure everyone vaccinated has it on their medical records. Or do you mean 'establish someone coming into your shop is vaccinated'? If so, ahhhh, true. We don't want vaccination passports.
    In the US, different states have different policies about how vaccinations are registered, and how you access it.

    The one thing everyone has is a paper vaccination record card, but those are easy to forge.

    I find a lot of 'white knighting' online at-least, is more about feeling or sounding morally superior, than ACTUALLY wanting to be a constructive change to inspire others. Quite a few vegans fall into this (no shade to vegans, it's literally the first example I knew to pop into my head). They say they want to encourage people to go vegan, but their methods of aggressive name calling and shaming... is just the absolute worst way to get people on your side or inclined to listen.

    The way I explain this to people is in an oversimplified way, to hopefully get them to realise why their tactics aren't working:

    QUESTION: what is more likely to get people to lower their defenses, and actual open their ears:
    a) I understand where you're coming from, but I'd love to talk specifically about a few point I'd disagree with...
    b) listen dumb c**t, here's why you're a f**king tw*t...

    And yet time and again it's OPTION B the 'white knights' choose to use on-line, which tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about their true morality and motivation.
    For some people it seems more important to feel right than to actually do something effective.

    An additional problem with shaming is that yelling at people doesn't really address their concerns, which can vary from person to person. The answer for someone worried about fertility is different than the answer for someone who thinks Jesus will save them.

    I doubt anyone would say yes. Hell, it's hard enough to get anyone to admit they were wrong or change their mind, but to achieve it by mockery??? Nah, never gonna happen.
    There are much more effective strategies, including figuring out where someone is coming from, and trying to frame the discussion in a way that doesn't alienate them.

    Agreed. To many things still need to happen, which means millions still out working. The only countries that can truly implement a full FULL lockdown effectively are either a) very very small b) have a... how to say this politely? Have a brutal control over their people and no qualms or political backlash from MAKING the people do exactly what they want. [Starts with a 'Ch', ends in an 'ina']
    Some countries are helped by geography.

    For a long time it seemed the best strategy was to be a Pacific nation with strict borders. That's not exactly an approach other countries can adopt.
    Sincerely,
    Thomas Mets

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    Island nations can also keep out people more easily than most.
    Look at UK(and specifically England), Mets and you'll see that what should be depends on the goodwill and competency of it's leaders and that things that'd be logical does not work in a toxic environment.

  9. #54
    Astonishing Member PwrdOn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce Wayne View Post
    If setting these things up were so easy, pharmaceutical companies would have done all of this years ago to lower costs. The reason that highly specialized vaccine production exists in some countries and not in others is because those countries supported these industries through money/tax credits and had an educated and specialized workforce necessarily for production to take place. Those conditions don't exist in many developing countries. If movement of global capital was so easy, the differences between developing and developed countries probably wouldn't exist.


    Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam all demonstrates nations can beat the virus without developed nations coming in to play White Savior. The coronavirus problems in countries like Brazil or India are a result of bad leadership and developed countries shouldn't be obligated to fix these problems.
    This kind of behavior is actually perfectly in line with the white savior ethos, because we spend all day offering poor countries help they didn't ask for with issues that matter a lot to us but aren't anywhere on their list of priorities, but when they are actually asking for help with a serious problem that they can't possibly contain with the resources they have at their disposal, all of a sudden they're on their own. The conduct of the Western countries during the covid has just been absolutely deplorable from every angle. Poor countries failed to contain the virus because they simply didn't have the capacity to do it, but we had more than enough resources and simply let it spread by CHOICE because we didn't want to make the economic sacrifice necessary to keep people safe. And now we're just banking on vaccines to bail us out, but of course it doesn't matter how many doses you hoard if people are refusing to take them.

    Think about this from the perspective of a poor nation in Africa or Latin America. Not only are the US and its allies refusing to supply them with vaccines, but we are also refusing to help them set up their own domestic production. On top of that, our media is working overtime trying to undermine confidence in the only vaccines that they can access, all while running nonstop disaster porn about how sad it is that these underdeveloped countries just can't get their shit together, completely ignoring the role we played in exacerbating and perpetuating this crisis.

    The problem with the white savior mentality isn't that saving people is bad, but that when it comes from whites it's pretty much always disingenuous and loaded with ulterior motives. If white people actually wanted to go around the world and actually help people with serious problems like fighting disease and natural disasters or building infrastructure and schools, people would LOVE that and wouldn't say a word. It's when you go around tut-tutting about how you need to fix everyone's culture to accommodate your own value system, or use overblown accusations of human rights abuses in order to topple governments, secure mining and drilling rights, and set up military bases, that's when people get really mad.

  10. #55
    Ultimate Member Kirby101's Avatar
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    This COVID pandemic will end. But another COVID or Avian Flu or SARS or other pandemic can start up.
    There came a time when the Old Gods died! The Brave died with the Cunning! The Noble perished locked in battle with unleashed Evil! It was the last day for them! An ancient era was passing in fiery holocaust!

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby101 View Post
    This COVID pandemic will end. But another COVID or Avian Flu or SARS or other pandemic can start up.
    Space herpes, that'll be the next one.

  12. #57
    Astonishing Member babyblob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by achilles View Post
    Space herpes, that'll be the next one.
    Until we get all Klingons to wear Condoms this kind of this is a matter of when not if!
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  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by babyblob View Post
    Until we get all Klingons to wear Condoms this kind of this is a matter of when not if!
    Patient zero will be Captain Kirk. Damn the man!

  14. #59
    CBR's Good Fairy Kieran_Frost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    This kind of behavior is actually perfectly in line with the white savior ethos, because we spend all day offering poor countries help they didn't ask for with issues that matter a lot to us but aren't anywhere on their list of priorities, but when they are actually asking for help with a serious problem that they can't possibly contain with the resources they have at their disposal, all of a sudden they're on their own. The conduct of the Western countries during the covid has just been absolutely deplorable from every angle. Poor countries failed to contain the virus because they simply didn't have the capacity to do it, but we had more than enough resources and simply let it spread by CHOICE because we didn't want to make the economic sacrifice necessary to keep people safe. And now we're just banking on vaccines to bail us out, but of course it doesn't matter how many doses you hoard if people are refusing to take them.

    Think about this from the perspective of a poor nation in Africa or Latin America. Not only are the US and its allies refusing to supply them with vaccines, but we are also refusing to help them set up their own domestic production. On top of that, our media is working overtime trying to undermine confidence in the only vaccines that they can access, all while running nonstop disaster porn about how sad it is that these underdeveloped countries just can't get their shit together, completely ignoring the role we played in exacerbating and perpetuating this crisis.

    The problem with the white savior mentality isn't that saving people is bad, but that when it comes from whites it's pretty much always disingenuous and loaded with ulterior motives. If white people actually wanted to go around the world and actually help people with serious problems like fighting disease and natural disasters or building infrastructure and schools, people would LOVE that and wouldn't say a word. It's when you go around tut-tutting about how you need to fix everyone's culture to accommodate your own value system, or use overblown accusations of human rights abuses in order to topple governments, secure mining and drilling rights, and set up military bases, that's when people get really mad.
    Considering you described people who don't want their careers flushed down the toilet after 18 months of suffering "pathetic"... I'm not sure you have any moral credibility left to pass judgement on the behaviour of the Western governments.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    The one thing everyone has is a paper vaccination record card, but those are easy to forge.
    While I agree they are very easy to forge, I'd also like to believe the vast, vast VAST majority wouldn't actually buy forgeries to by-pass the law. That's a lot of effort for a document you could just get easier and free by just getting your vaccine. Though I'm still undecided how I feel about vaccine passports. My gut tells me this isn't a good idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    Some countries are helped by geography.
    For a long time it seemed the best strategy was to be a Pacific nation with strict borders. That's not exactly an approach other countries can adopt.
    Quote Originally Posted by mogwen View Post
    Look at UK(and specifically England), Mets and you'll see that what should be depends on the goodwill and competency of it's leaders and that things that'd be logical does not work in a toxic environment.
    I don't think it's the literal act of being an island that is the sole determining factor. Population and international visitors play a huge part of this (well... the lack there of plays a huge part of this). It's far easier to lockdown and protect a country like New Zealand (with limited travel and limited numbers) vs an island like Great Britain with a huge population and huge amount of international visitors. It has the largest international airport in the world for a reason.
    "We are Shakespeare. We are Michelangelo. We are Tchaikovsky. We are Turing. We are Mercury. We are Wilde. We are Lincoln, Lorca, Leonardo da Vinci. We are Alexander the Great. We are Fredrick the Great. We are Rustin. We are Addams. We are Marsha! Marsha Marsha Marsha! We so generous, we DeGeneres. We are Ziggy Stardust hooked to the silver screen. Controversially we are Malcolm X. We are Plato. We are Aristotle. We are RuPaul, god dammit! And yes, we are Woolf."

  15. #60
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    One factor that makes the a prediction on Covid-19's arc difficult is travel. It's faster, available to a wider percentage of the population, and reaches into a wider percentage of the globe than ever in human history. Certainly as compared to the eras in which polio and measles were eradicated. We can't count on any population, anywhere on earth (except for the Sentinelese on North Sentinal Island) being sufficiently isolated to prevent any variant cropping up anywhere from spreading globally, and that means the risk of a variant emerging against which current vaccines don't do squat. So the models based on previous pandemics may not be reliable.

    As others have pointed out, New Zealand has done the best job of defeating it within their borders and keeping new infections from crossing their borders. But then, the Kiwi have proven an especially rational people over the last several decades.

    ETA:
    Quote Originally Posted by Kieran_Frost View Post
    ...I don't think it's the literal act of being an island that is the sole determining factor. Population and international visitors play a huge part of this (well... the lack there of plays a huge part of this). It's far easier to lockdown and protect a country like New Zealand (with limited travel and limited numbers) vs an island like Great Britain with a huge population and huge amount of international visitors. It has the largest international airport in the world for a reason.
    Just to note, pre-pandemic, New Zealand's tourists were routinely exceeding its population, and it has a substantial population of diaspora that often visit their countries of origin, so I don't know that international visitors are a dividing point. However, you do have a solid point about population, and especially, population density. NZ has the advantage of a bit more elbow room between its crowds, and those crowds being a bit smaller.
    Last edited by DrNewGod; 08-03-2021 at 08:35 AM.

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