I disagree with you a tiny bit. I do think there will be people buying out theaters, at first. And already there's talk in the media of Blacks and Latinos wearing white when they go see the film. They are already trying to make this another cultural event, this time a cross cultural or bi-cultural one. I think most people will buy the Disney line that this film honors Chadwick Boseman and also will be swayed by the Black Girl Magic of the majority of the cast. I think people are going to want to support this film just like they did the first one, and some might do it out of a belief that if they don't, there won't be more films like it. You'll also have the MCU faithful, MCU curious, casually curious, and those who care more about Namor than anyone else in the cast, or Latino representation. And it will be interesting to see how Latino moviegoers will respond, and if they will embrace Namor and this version of the Atlanteans.
I expect a full court press from Disney, the Hollywood media, social media, etc. to see this film in theaters as soon as you can, and as many times as you can for "The Culture", Latino representation, female empowerment (especially Black Girl Magic), and to honor Boseman's legacy. Hollywood
needs Wakanda Forever to be a smash. The biggest wrinkle, the x-factor are moviegoers. Will this movie have the kind of wow moments that get people talking outside of Hollywood and the media, and will these people keep coming back for repeat business? While there are vastly more casual MCU fans than there are recast supporters, I'm not discounting that the recast movement has some folks who are diehard fans and if they don't show up, or don't come back multiple times, that might hurt the box office and merchandise sales. Right now, I'm leaning toward not going to see the film, and I went four times to see the first one.
And if the fandom is divided, or there's griping on the margins, that also undercuts the idea that this is a must-see cultural moment that everyone agrees on (the first one wasn't, but it's detractors never gained much traction). The vast majority of people-including pro-recasters IMO-will go see this film, many on opening weekend, but it's after that, the weekday business, and the succeeding weeks where we will get to see how much of a hit this film will be. Or not be.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/...er/ar-AA10gvRA
https://news.yahoo.com/major-movie-t...ycsrp_catchall