Should Joe Biden Run For Re-Election In 2024?

[Mister Mets]

And my point still stands, favorites right now, over 2 years before the election do not indicate who will be the nominee, or even who will run.

Ad hoc analysis of why someone not favored, or even announced at the time then went on to get the nomination proves my point.

For the hell of it, let's look at the primaries since 1988.
1988 Democrats- Frontrunner has major scandal. Unknown Governor gets nomination.
1988 Republicans- Vice President wins.
1992 Democrats- Frontrunners Mario Cuomo, Al Gore, Jesse Jackson, Lloyd Bentsen, Dick Gephardt and Joe Biden decide not to run. Unknown Governor gets nomination.
1996 Republicans- Republican next in line wins.
2000 Democrats- Vice President wins.
2000 Republicans- President's son/ big-state Governor wins.
2004 Democrats- Top candidates Al Gore and Hillary Clinton opt not to run.
2008 Democrats- Frontrunner loses to rising star.
2008 Republicans- Republican next in line wins.
2012 Republicans- Republican next in line wins.
2016 Democrats- Frontrunner wins.
2016 Republicans- Unconventional candidate wins.
2020 Democrats- Frontrunner wins.

Frontrunners have a pretty good track record. In the ten primaries with a clear favorite, the favorite lost twice (Hillary Clinton in 2008, Jeb Bush in 2016.) There's a third loss if you add Gary Hart, although this requires a major scandal, which I don't expect from Harris.

[Catlady in training]

I was skeptical of Biden but he's starting to get things done.

Gas prices are coming down, the CHIPS act got bipartisan support, the Inflation Reduction Act looks like it's going to get passed, the US is getting back the jobs it lost to covid and the economy is slowly improving.

And the US in back in international game, once again de facto leader of the Western World, which can now best be seen in their response to russia's terrorist war against Ukraine.
A big change after Trump who seemed determined to burn bridges with western allies and was an occasional laughing stock at international summits.

[Kirby101]

Biden didn't announce until 2019, and probably became the front runner then. At this point in that cycle the front runner was probably Harris or maybe Bernie.

It's not about the front runner in the Primaries, it's about where we are now in the cycle.

[Mister Mets]

Biden didn't announce until 2019, and probably became the front runner then. At this point in that cycle the front runner was probably Harris or maybe Bernie.

It's not about the front runner in the Primaries, it's about where we are now in the cycle.

Biden was polling ahead of everyone else in early 2018.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...primary-polls/

He was the clear frontrunner four years ago.

I just realized that a bunch of us might be talking past one another if there's a difference sense of what it means to be a frontrunner.

For example, one person may think it means a person is pretty much guaranteed to win.

For others, it might be about current poll position.

One easy way to consider it would be the odds you'd give. If Biden ran again, he has a better than even chance of winning the presidential nomination (this is complicated by the way he's more likely to run again if his approval rating rebounds.) If he doesn't run again, Kamala Harris has a better than even chance of winning the presidential nomination. It seems their chances are better than that of everyone else combined.

[Kirby101]

All I am saying that this is too early in the cycle to know who the hell will be the nominee, or who will even be running.
Obviously Biden and Trump are the front runners now, but we don't even know if they are running. And if not, it is near impossible to predict at this point who it would be.

[Zauriel]

Howard Dean was the frontrunner and lost in 2004 primaries,

Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner and lost in 2008 primaries, Mister Mets already mentioned that.

[CSTowle]

Howard Dean was a dark horse candidate who briefly held the lead before losing it. That's not an uncommon phenomenon, guy comes from behind to upset the apple cart and briefly hold the reins as the Establishment and base decide if they really want to settle for the more obvious candidate, before ignoring the dark horse and settling for the obvious.

[Tendrin]

And the Dean Scream was an early example of some of the problems in our media that have continued unto today.

[Kirby101]

And the Dean Scream was an early example of some of the problems in our media that have continued unto today.

So effing true!

[Jack Dracula]

For the hell of it, let's look at the primaries since 1988.
1988 Democrats- Frontrunner has major scandal. Unknown Governor gets nomination.
1988 Republicans- Vice President wins.
1992 Democrats- Frontrunners Mario Cuomo, Al Gore, Jesse Jackson, Lloyd Bentsen, Dick Gephardt and Joe Biden decide not to run. Unknown Governor gets nomination.
1996 Republicans- Republican next in line wins.
2000 Democrats- Vice President wins.
2000 Republicans- President's son/ big-state Governor wins.
2004 Democrats- Top candidates Al Gore and Hillary Clinton opt not to run.
2008 Democrats- Frontrunner loses to rising star.
2008 Republicans- Republican next in line wins.
2012 Republicans- Republican next in line wins.
2016 Democrats- Frontrunner wins.
2016 Republicans- Unconventional candidate wins.
2020 Democrats- Frontrunner wins.

Frontrunners have a pretty good track record. In the ten primaries with a clear favorite, the favorite lost twice (Hillary Clinton in 2008, Jeb Bush in 2016.) There's a third loss if you add Gary Hart, although this requires a major scandal, which I don't expect from Harris.

Man, remember when a major scandal like an affair would immediately tank a candidates campaign?

[CaptainEurope]

I don't understand why age is such a big deal when vice presidents and the 25th amendment exist.

[Mister Mets]

All I am saying that this is too early in the cycle to know who the hell will be the nominee, or who will even be running.
Obviously Biden and Trump are the front runners now, but we don't even know if they are running. And if not, it is near impossible to predict at this point who it would be.

There's still a really good chance the Democratic nominee will be either Biden or Harris (depending on who runs), and that the Republican nominee will either Trump or DeSantis.

Is this guaranteed? No.

Is this more likely than not? Probably.

Howard Dean was the frontrunner and lost in 2004 primaries,

Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner and lost in 2008 primaries, Mister Mets already mentioned that.

Dean didn't really come into the 2004 Democratic primary as the frontrunner. He was leading in polls in late 2003, but that's more because he did the work to raise his profile as a small-state Governor.

That seemed to be a race where Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, the candidates who could have been frontrunners if they went for the nomination, chose not to run.

Howard Dean was a dark horse candidate who briefly held the lead before losing it. That's not an uncommon phenomenon, guy comes from behind to upset the apple cart and briefly hold the reins as the Establishment and base decide if they really want to settle for the more obvious candidate, before ignoring the dark horse and settling for the obvious.

Yeah, this happens often enough.

The dark horse is often unable to build on their initial support, or to handle the increased scrutiny.

I don't understand why age is such a big deal when vice presidents and the 25th amendment exist.

There's a grey area between someone being able to handle the most difficult job in the world and someone being so senile that there will be clear support for invoking the 25th amendment.

It's hard enough to convince grandpa to give in the car keys. Are people prepared to have the same conversation about the nuclear football?

[Zauriel]

The dark horse is often unable to build on their initial support, or to handle the increased scrutiny.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_horse

Dark horse concept was first applied to James K. Polk, a relatively unknown Tennessee politician who won the Democratic Party's 1844 presidential nomination over a host of better-known candidates. Polk won the nomination on the ninth ballot at his party's national nominating convention, and went on to become the country's eleventh president.

Other successful dark horse candidates for the United States presidency include:

Franklin Pierce, chosen as the Democratic nominee and later elected the fourteenth president in 1852.
Abraham Lincoln, chosen as the Republican nominee and elected as the sixteenth president in 1860.
Rutherford B. Hayes, elected the nineteenth president in 1876.
James A. Garfield, elected the twentieth president in 1880.
Warren G. Harding, Senator from Ohio, elected the twenty-ninth president in 1920 after his surprise nomination.
Harry S. Truman, Vice-President and former Senator from Missouri and thirty-third president, was virtually unknown to the American people when he succeeded President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945. Truman was considered a lame duck President with no chance of winning against Republican nominee and New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, yet managed to shock the world by emerging victorious in the 1948 United States presidential election - widely considered one of the biggest upsets in American history.
Jimmy Carter, former Governor of Georgia elected the thirty-ninth president in 1976; in the beginning of that same year, Carter was relatively unknown outside his home state of Georgia but went on to win the nomination over rivals with more national prominence. At the 1976 Democratic National Convention Carter made a joke of his obscurity beginning his speech saying "My name is Jimmy Carter, and I'm running for President."
Barack Obama, the Junior Senator from Illinois, who had captivated the Democratic Convention on behalf of John Kerry in 2004, was still relatively unknown to the American people when he entered into the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries but emerged from obscurity to narrowly edge out the heavily favored Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Obama would be elected president, becoming the nation's first African-American president.
Donald Trump, a real estate investor and reality television personality, defeated 15 established rivals for the Republican nomination before defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the general election despite losing the popular vote by over 2.8 million votes. Trump had never held political office prior to his presidency, but had been running or espousing to run for president since 1999

[Mister Mets]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_horse

Dark horse concept was first applied to James K. Polk, a relatively unknown Tennessee politician who won the Democratic Party's 1844 presidential nomination over a host of better-known candidates. Polk won the nomination on the ninth ballot at his party's national nominating convention, and went on to become the country's eleventh president.

Other successful dark horse candidates for the United States presidency include:

Franklin Pierce, chosen as the Democratic nominee and later elected the fourteenth president in 1852.
Abraham Lincoln, chosen as the Republican nominee and elected as the sixteenth president in 1860.
Rutherford B. Hayes, elected the nineteenth president in 1876.
James A. Garfield, elected the twentieth president in 1880.
Warren G. Harding, Senator from Ohio, elected the twenty-ninth president in 1920 after his surprise nomination.
Harry S. Truman, Vice-President and former Senator from Missouri and thirty-third president, was virtually unknown to the American people when he succeeded President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945. Truman was considered a lame duck President with no chance of winning against Republican nominee and New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, yet managed to shock the world by emerging victorious in the 1948 United States presidential election - widely considered one of the biggest upsets in American history.
Jimmy Carter, former Governor of Georgia elected the thirty-ninth president in 1976; in the beginning of that same year, Carter was relatively unknown outside his home state of Georgia but went on to win the nomination over rivals with more national prominence. At the 1976 Democratic National Convention Carter made a joke of his obscurity beginning his speech saying "My name is Jimmy Carter, and I'm running for President."
Barack Obama, the Junior Senator from Illinois, who had captivated the Democratic Convention on behalf of John Kerry in 2004, was still relatively unknown to the American people when he entered into the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries but emerged from obscurity to narrowly edge out the heavily favored Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Obama would be elected president, becoming the nation's first African-American president.
Donald Trump, a real estate investor and reality television personality, defeated 15 established rivals for the Republican nomination before defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the general election despite losing the popular vote by over 2.8 million votes. Trump had never held political office prior to his presidency, but had been running or espousing to run for president since 1999

Sometimes dark horses will win. However, most dark horses will lose, even if a few have a moment of prominence. It's also possible for a dark horse to elevate their profile with a primary run so that next time they go for it, they're not a dark horse.

Many of the dark horses were nominated before the modern primary system, which is a different dynamic of getting powerful supporters to vouch for you with the small elite group of convention-goers. Carter was able to use the primaries to beat out more establishment candidates. It is worth noting two frontrunners not to run in that election: former Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. George Wallace, the most prominent remaining contender, was never going to be an acceptable choice to the majority of the party.

There are interesting stories of how some of the other people won.
Polk was a former Speaker of the House, so it's unusual that he's considered a dark horse, although the frontrunners were former President Van Buren and a former Secretary of War. Polk was at the convention supporting Van Buren in the hopes of being his running mate.
Garfield was a congressman who supporting a former Senator and cabinet official against frontrunner former President Ulysses S Grant (perhaps Trump may notice a trend of former Presidents losing primaries.)
Truman was selected as Vice President, so it's a different scenario in that the public didn't vote for him for President. He was in charge of a committee investigating war profiteering, so he had a decent national reputation, although it still had to be weird when he became President after 13 years of FDR.

[CSTowle]

So you in the last century you had Truman, who was basically appointed by FDR and coming off the most successful run of a President arguably ever (and it was still close). Then you have Carter who came off as a decent and humble alternative after coming off of the Nixon scandal and Gerald Ford (again, very lucky circumstances). Then you have the most electrifying political speaker of our lifetimes running against the most hated politician in our lifetimes. Yes, it's possible for a dark horse to win. But without outside circumstances weighing in their favor it's extremely unlikely. Parties tend to be conservative/cautious because they want the best possible percentage for a win.