Should Joe Biden Run For Re-Election In 2024?

[babyblob]

If China does invade Taiwan that would be the nail in the coffin for Biden and any reelections hopes. The spin on not only the Invasion but the resulting problems from an economic stand point would be the end of him.

[Kirby101]

Not really, no. You stated "Inflation will not be a problem in 2024, by then it will be curbed or reversed" (this sounds like "certainty")

I've seen you making posts about inflation that are anything but "educated", hence my question.

What did I say that was uneducated? Quoting Noble Prize winning Paul Krugman? Saying it was largely caused by Global events? Do tell?

And BTW this whole frigg'n thread is just predictions about 2024, don't know how you don't see that?

[hyped78]

If China does invade Taiwan that would be the nail in the coffin for Biden and any reelections hopes. The spin on not only the Invasion but the resulting problems from an economic stand point would be the end of him.

Economically yes, but it's also an opportunity for the US to stand up to China. I don't know, it's hard to say.

What did I say that was uneducated? Quoting Noble Prize winning Paul Krugman? Saying it was largely caused by Global events? Do tell?

Nah, that's not what you did. You quoted selected parts of what Krugman said. You also said, and I'm quoting you: "Larry Summers predicted inflation caused by the stimulus package. He was wrong, it is being caused by oil prices, supply chain problems, worker shortages and corporate greed" (and then went on to say that Krugman demonstrated bla bla)

I quoted the rest of what Krugman said, plus his Twitter posts, and you disappeared from the conversation:
Krugman - "Some warned that the package would be dangerously inflationary; others were fairly relaxed. I was Team Relaxed. As it turned out, of course, that was a very bad call."
"Take it as given that large fiscal stimulus and Fed complacency allowed the U.S. economy to get overheated"
"The thing is, if you want to argue that Biden policies exacerbated inflation, you can make a reasonable case."

Of course Biden's package was highly inflationary, it's pretty obvious. That much - but not all - of inflation is caused by everything else is also very obvious, as many/ most countries have high inflation right now - but the US quite higher vs. most other developed economies "ceteris paribus" (e.g. US 9.1% June 2022 vs. France at 5.8%, Germany at 7.6% as a couple of examples), considering that it runs its own monetary policy (EU countries individually do not), produces O&G (EU countries mostly don't), dependency on Russian gas (several EU countries are/ were highly dependent), is international lender of last resort, etc.

When you execute an economic expansionary policy, be it fiscal, monetary or both, you get more inflation. In this case, in the US you got a ton more inflation. You said that Joe Manchin ruined things by blocking further money injection into the economy (and, hence, more inflation!!!!!!!!), so let me quote Jeff Bezos:
"In fact, the administration tried hard to inject even more stimulus into an already over-heated, inflationary economy and only Manchin saved them from themselves. Inflation is a regressive tax that most hurts the least affluent. Misdirection doesn’t help the country."

So yes, with all due respect, an uneducated opinion about macroeconomics.

[Kirby101]

If China does invade Taiwan that would be the nail in the coffin for Biden and any reelections hopes. The spin on not only the Invasion but the resulting problems from an economic stand point would be the end of him.

I don't think that is likely, Taiwan is well armed and I don't think America will stand by. I think China is looking at the long game and hoping (with their covert influence) for a Taiwanese Government that will agree to reconciliation.

Look at Russia and Ukraine (which China surely sees and learns from) That aggression was surely not thoughtout, and will do untold damage to Russia.

But I do think the threat is real, if unlikely.

[babyblob]

Economically yes, but it's also an opportunity for the US to stand up to China. I don't know, it's hard to say.

Other then sanctions I dont know what The USA could do with China that they are not doing with Russia. Biden is doing everything he can with Russia and he is still viewed as being too soft. So I dont see how the same actions would be viewed as standing up to China when they are not being viewed as standing up to Russia.

[Kirby101]

What Krugman said about the causes of inflation and the stimulus. Not cherry picked but what he said.

So here’s the odd thing: The multiplier on the rescue plan does, in fact, seem to have been relatively low. A lot of consumers saved those checks; state and local government spending rose by less than one percent of G.D.P. Employment is still below its prepandemic level, and real G.D.P., while it has recovered to roughly its prepandemic trend, hasn’t shot above it.

Much, although not all, of the inflation surge seems to reflect disruptions associated with the pandemic. Fear of infection and changes in the way we live caused big shifts in the mix of spending: People spent less money on services and more on goods, leading to shortages of shipping containers, overstressed port capacity, and so on. These disruptions help explain why inflation rose in many countries, not just in the United States.

Just to keep the record straight.

[hyped78]

other then sanctions I dont know what The USA could do with China that they are not doing with Russia. Biden is doing everything he can with Russia and he is still viewed as being too soft. So I dont see how the same actions would be viewed as standing up to China when they are not being viewed as standing up to Russia.

Yeah, I don't think it's realistic to assume the US would get militarily involved if China invades Taiwan.

It's interesting that you say that Biden is "still viewed as being too soft" on Russia - I actually think he's doing all he can, short of putting boots on the ground (and I don't think that would make much sense, IMO). The sanctions on Russia have been unprecedented and far-reaching, as well as the military/ economic help to the Ukraine. Short of shooting directly at Russia, he's been doing all he realistically can, I think!

The thing with China is that it's ever trickier to impose sanctions on them. China represents a much higher % of the global economy than Russia does.

What Krugman said about the causes of inflation and the stimulus. Not cherry picked but what he said.

Just to keep the record straight.

Like I've stated, he also says (he does say what you quoted, but I don't know why you don't quote the rest):
"Some warned that the package would be dangerously inflationary; others were fairly relaxed. I was Team Relaxed. As it turned out, of course, that was a very bad call."
"Take it as given that large fiscal stimulus and Fed complacency allowed the U.S. economy to get overheated"
"The thing is, if you want to argue that Biden policies exacerbated inflation, you can make a reasonable case."

And you had said:
"Larry Summers predicted inflation caused by the stimulus package. He was wrong, it is being caused by oil prices, supply chain problems, worker shortages and corporate greed" (where are you mentioning the stimulus package here?)


Higher monetary mass == Higher inflation, ceteris paribus

I'll stop it here. Just wanted to "keep the record straight".

[babyblob]

Yeah, I don't think it's realistic to assume the US would get militarily involved if China invades Taiwan.

It's interesting that you say that Biden is "still viewed as being too soft" on Russia - I actually think he's doing all he can, short of putting boots on the ground (and I don't think that would make much sense, IMO). The sanctions on Russia have been unprecedented and far-reaching, as well as the military/ economic help to the Ukraine. Short of shooting directly at Russia, he's been doing all he realistically can, I think!

The thing with China is that it's ever trickier to impose sanctions on them. China represents a much higher % of the global economy than Russia does.

He is not viewed that way by me. I think he has done all he could short of troops in Ukraine. I think it was smart of him to resist the calls for a no fly zone.

I know it is fun to think of the USA riding in with troops and tanks and pushing Russia back. But we are not going to start a major war over the Ukraine. And if China invades we wont start a major war to defend them. Sanctions are all that could be done. And as you said that would be tricky because China has their hands in so much more then Russia.

[Captain Nostalgia]

Michelle doesn't want it.

That’s a shame because (provided she can hold her own against Trump’s attacks during a debate) she’s probably a shoe in.

Personally, If I had to vote for a democratic candidate again, I would go for a democratic governor of a state. Joe Biden has been in Washington longer than any other president. I don't want another establishment politician but a skillful and skilled politician who has never gone to Washington before.

From a centrist point of view, it might be feasible to find a more electable candidate in a deep red state (John Bel Edwards or Andy Beshear), a red-leaning state (Roy Cooper), a reddish purple state (Tony Evers or Gretchen Whitmer) or a blueish purple state (Jared Polis).

Gavin Newsom is also okay in my book. I believe he would have a certain winning chance in the 2024 presidential elections, if he doesn't screw things in office by the end of his term. Kate Brown of Oregon, too. I like both of them, for how they are running their states .
They can also try former governors who had been out of office recently like Steve Bullock.

I’m just a spectator up north but, I would prefer a centrist as well. Elizabeth Warren’s comments about not having to raise interest rates to tackle inflation sent chills up my spine, and I haven’t been impressed with Janet Yellen as the treasurer, she could really benefit from taking her cues from Larry Summers.

The people you listed are solid politicians, unfortunately I think Trump would eat most them alive on stage, Biden the tough old dog he is, handles him fine, so it will really come down to how this administration handles the economy at the end of the day.

I’m not opposed to a Republican either....just not Trump because his ideology leans more towards the fascism of Julius Evola than it does the traditional Conservatism of Edmund Burke. In short, the xenophobic Patrick Buchanan wing of the party.

[Zauriel]

Run Newsom only if you want to lose. He'll eventually be called out on his record, no matter how much protection he gets, and then he'll lose badly because he's been stupid, venal, and caused or made worse most of California's problems, all while badly lying repeatedly to voter's faces, getting caught, then blaming it on everyone else. Remember, while he survived a recall, he also had to face one in the first place, largely due to his colossal mishandling of the pandemic and homelessness. Find someone better.

Then I'd suggest Jay Inslee. He did a decent job running his state. His handling of the covid pandemic is fairly impressive. He was elected three times. He'd make a decent president if he runs in 2024. I know he lost in the primaries. So did Joe Biden who ran in the primaries and lost three times.

The people you listed are solid politicians, unfortunately I think Trump would eat most them alive on stage, Biden the tough old dog he is, handles him fine, so it will really come down to how this administration handles the economy at the end of the day.

I’m not opposed to a Republican either....just not Trump because his ideology leans more towards the fascism of Julius Evola than it does the traditional Conservatism of Edmund Burke. In short, the xenophobic Patrick Buchanan wing of the party.

All the people I listed are also less experienced than Joe Biden. But less experienced politicians including Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln became presidents.

Joe Biden had been 30 years in the senate. No other president who has been a senator has been more than 12 years in the senate before being president. He lived and worked in Washington longer than any other president.

[Tendrin]

Larry Summers, who acts like extending unemployment insurance was a monstrous act during a pandemic and that the government was just handing out endless free checks? That Larry Summers? Fuck that guy.

[Kirby101]

Larry Summers, who acts like extending unemployment insurance was a monstrous act during a pandemic and that the government was just handing out endless free checks? That Larry Summers? Fuck that guy.

Larry Summers has seen every act of a Democratic President as inflationary since 2008, that is why him being "right" now is pure BS. He also said it would be because of the stimulus package, which we know with certainty was a very, very small part of the larger causes of the current trends.

[Tendrin]

Larry Summers has seen every act of a Democratic President as inflationary since 2008, that is why him being "right" now is pure BS. He also said it would be because of the stimulus package, which we know with certainty was a very, very small part of the larger causes of the current trends.

Weird how pouring trillions into the pockets of the wealthy is never 'inflationary', but helping regular people always is.

[Kirby101]

Weird how pouring trillions into the pockets of the wealthy is never 'inflationary', but helping regular people always is.

It isn't, because they don't spend it, they just put it into foreign bank accounts. Or occasionally buy a 5th or 6th home, or a bigger yacht. They also more stock which makes the market artificially higher.

[Jack Dracula]

It isn't, because they don't spend it, they just put it into foreign bank accounts. Or occasionally buy a 5th or 6th home, or a bigger yacht. They also more stock which makes the market artificially higher.

Or they pour it into conservative super PACS.