Should Joe Biden Run For Re-Election In 2024?

[Zauriel]

That gets to a different point beyond winning a general election. There are two new questions: Do dark horses have a better chance of winning a general election? Do we know if dark horses who lost primaries would have performed differently in the general election.

Zauriel listed dark horses who became President. He didn't really address dark horses who won primaries but lost the general election.
In 1940, Republicans nominated businessman Wendell Wilkie. He was a dark horse. He didn't run a formal primary campaign.
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1940 Republican National Convention nominated Wendell Willkie over Robert A. Taft, the son of the late President Taft because many Republicans did not wish to nominate an isolationist like Robert A. Taft. Wendell Willkie, like Donald J. Trump, was a businessman who never held any government office and was also a democrat before switching parties.

[Mister Mets]

1940 Republican National Convention nominated Wendell Willkie over Robert A. Taft, the son of the late President Taft because many Republicans did not wish to nominate an isolationist like Robert A. Taft. Wendell Willkie, like Donald J. Trump, was a businessman who never held any government office and was also a democrat before switching parties.

Yeah.

Taft was a second-year Senator at that point.
The top Republican vote-getter in the primaries that allowed that was Tom Dewey, a Manhattan prosecutor who had narrowly lost a race for Governor of New York. He would get elected Governor, and be the Republican nominee twice.

That's an interesting cycle in that the top contenders did not have conventional experience.

It sometimes happens when parties are weak. William Jennings Bryan won the Democratic presidential nomination three times between 1896-1908 as a former two-term Congressman who had lost a race for Senate. In 1904, the one cycle he didn't run, the nomination was a race between a first-term congressman William Randolph Hearst (the model for Citizen Kane) and Alton B. Parker, Chief Justice of the New York Supreme Court.

[Zauriel]

Yeah.

The top Republican vote-getter in the primaries that allowed that was Tom Dewey, a Manhattan prosecutor who had narrowly lost a race for Governor of New York. He would get elected Governor, and be the Republican nominee twice.

That's an interesting cycle in that the top contenders did not have conventional experience.

It sometimes happens when parties are weak. William Jennings Bryan won the Democratic presidential nomination three times between 1896-1908 as a former two-term Congressman who had lost a race for Senate. In 1904, the one cycle he didn't run, the nomination was a race between a first-term congressman William Randolph Hearst (the model for Citizen Kane) and Alton B. Parker, Chief Justice of the New York Supreme Court.

At the age of 36, William Jennings Bryan was the youngest presidential candidate in the history of the United States. He was nominated as presidential candidate for his oratorical skills.

Tom Dewey wanted to run in the 1940 presidential election and sought the 1940 Republican presidential nomination. He was considered the early favorite for the nomination, but Some Republican leaders considered him to be too young (at 38, just three years above the minimum age required by the US Constitution) and too inexperienced to lead the nation in wartime. Furthermore, Tom Dewey's non-interventionist stance became problematic when Germany quickly conquered France, and seemed poised to invade Britain. As a result, at the 1940 Republican National Convention many delegates switched from Dewey to Wendell Willkie, who was a decade older and supported aid to the Allies fighting Germany. Dewey led on the first ballot, but was well below the vote total he needed to win. He steadily lost to Willkie in succeeding ballots, and Willkie was nominated on the convention's sixth ballot. Willkie lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in the general election

[CSTowle]

I've not been here long, but I don't remember 30 ever getting attacked for a right wing poster. He or she constantly criticizes Democrats.

I was saying that he gets attacked as too leftist by those on his right (center-left Democratic types) on the board. He criticizes the Democratic Party (as do I) as being too conservative (traditional meaning, preserving the status quo and moving slowly/incrementally) and too centrist. He's not attacked as if he were a right-winger (though the tactic of painting him as a stealth right-winger because he has the audacity to criticize Democrats is something that happens on occasion), he's attacked for being too leftist.

Most right-wingers (Mets aside) don't stay on the board long enough to make arguments or attack specific posters. They hit and run, usually when something bad related to a Democrat happens.

[JB]

Some hopeful news with core inflation coming in at 8.5% year over year (flat month over month). So no change from last month but that's better than an increase which is a hopeful sign.



We still have a long way down to go (the FED is aiming for 2%) but if August comes in even better then we could be looking at a trend, which would be a great talking point.

It won't make much of an impact for the average American as real wages remain down and food costs went up...

Yahoo Finance
Inflation: Grocery prices increased 13.1% in July
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infla...143205313.html

Americans can still expect sticker shock when they head to their local grocery stories due to inflation.

Despite inflation cooling down a bit in July, up 8.5%, Americans are still paying significantly more for food.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July Consumer Price Index, the cost of food rose 10.9% , with food in the at-home category rising 13.1%, higher than the year-over-year rise in recent months. For the overall food category, that's the highest increase since May of 1979, but for the food-at-home category, which is household groceries, it's the highest since March of 1979, according to Steve Reed, an economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

but it's something.

[CaptainEurope]

It has been so stunning to watch the CBS news app this week. Every day a disaster for Trump, every day Biden signing a bill or getting some other kind of good news.