Originally Posted by
MRP
I'm not sure. I think they are interested in resigning Eovaldi, who has said he wants to stay with the Sox, but I think that will come down to how much. I don't see them resigning JD Martinez unless it's a huge paycut, but I don't think JD or his agent will go for that (I think he's a Boras client but I am not sure). With them having signed Story to a long term deal, I am not sure they will be willing to meet what Boegarts could get from another team, but I think they want Boegarts back and Boegarts wants to stay, so it's a question of how much more than he's already making can he get from the Sox and is that enough to make him choose to stay rather than sign elsewhere for more. They also need to prioritize extending Devers before the start of next season or that will be a cancerous distraction all of next season.
But other than that core, I think they blow up the roster. They really need to sort out their pitching staff. They have some pieces that could be the beginning of a decent back end of a rotation. Pivetta is a good #3 or 4 starter, either Kutter Crawford or Winchowski look like they could be decent 4th or 5th starters. But the front end is uncertain. Who know what Sale still has or what Paxton will be when he comes back. Does Eovaldi stay or go? Whatever the answer to those questions, they could really benefit if they find some way to add a frontline starter to the mix to take the pressure off the rest and let them slot in the back end as best fits. Eovaldi is great as a #2 or 3 starter, he's not a #1 starter, and neither is Pivetta though he has had to be in that role this season.
The bullpen is a mess. It needs to be completely revamped. Whitlock, Houck and Schreiber are all solid, the rest are not worth keeping unless they need a mop up guy in their bullpen. They need to find a couple of high leverage arms and clean house with the rest.
They need to address starting catcher. They don't have an answer already in the organization. They could look at bringing Vazquez back, but that would be a short term solution.
They could bring the old cast back and hope for better things, but that cast has a top heavy line up, lacks depth, and has exploitable weaknesses. Meanwhile every other team in the AL East is getting better, so I think they really need to blow things up.
Their lineup/fielding core for next year already in house should be Devers (3B), Story (SS/2B), Hosmer (1B/DH), Verdugo (corner OF) and Pham (corner OF/4th OF) and Arroyo as their super utility. I would try to prioritize resigning Boegarts and finding a solid CF and C. I think Tristan Casas will probably be up and splitting 1B/DH with Hosmer with Hosmer mentoring him as the heir apparent. I think we have seen enough of Jarran Duran to know he's not the answer at CF, and Dalbec is not a starter but does have good power, but maybe they can use those two as trade chips. And honestly, for the right return I would move Verdugo and Pham as well. I don't think Kiki resigns with the Sox either, but it's possible.
The rotation will have Sale, Paxton, (assuming they are both healthy next season) Pivetta, and likely either Crawford or Winchowski to start. Maybe Eovaldi comes back, maybe not. They still need a frontline starter and 1-2 depth arms to deal with injuries. Maybe they look at bringing Wacha back, but I think he will command more on the market than he is actually worth. I'd even look at moving Sale if another team is willing to take the risk and the contract. Or even possibly look at moving Sale to the closer role he had when he first came up to maximize what he can contribute without the wear and tear of innings a starter piles up.
The bullpen is a mess and needs a lot of love and attention. They need to add either a traditional closer (or look at Sale in that role), or a dependable high leverage set up man and move Whitlock into the close role (not a multiple inning end of game guy but someone available on consecutive days). Houck and Schreiber as other late inning bridges, and then get a whole new set of faces. Get rid of Barnes, Brasier, Davis, Hernandez, Sawamura and the rest. Some have potential and could benefit form a new environment, but they need not to be a part of Boston's bullpen any longer. The bullpen needs a new culture as well as a facelift, so the dead weight needs to be cleared out.
So I think it should be more of a blow it up scenario, but they do have pieces with which to have a foundation for what emerges from the blow up. A lot depends whether ownership is ready to emerge from the cocoon of the luxury tax reset they imposed upon themselves.
But I am sure what they actually do will not look like anything I proposed.
-M