What are your top 8 potential best picture candidates for 2023

[Batfleck89]

Hey guys i know it's early but we are rapidly approaching oscar season. The time when a lot of 9 to 10 star caliber films will be released or 4 or 5 star depending on how you rate films. Anyway i just wanted to know as of right now what is your film list for best picture candidates. Mine are the following: 1) The woman king 2) till 3) The banshees of inisherin 4) Tar 5) Call Jane 6) The fabelmans 7) The whale and 8) Babylon. But i want to know what's your early oscar best picture list and tell me if i missed one i will be honest i actually don't watch many international film like parasite or drive my car so let me know if i have missed a big international film as well.

[Mister Mets]

The Fabelmans- They love Spielberg, reviews are good, and it's about a guy who loves film.
Everything Everywhere All at Once- It checks a lot of quirky boxes. I think it's going to be the favorite film of enough people.
Babylon- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood by the Lalalaland guy. Both those films got Best Picture nods.
Women Talking- Reviews seem great and the topic is important.
Top Gun: Maverick- It was really good and really popular. And it's not going to face the bias against genre films.
Banshees of Inisherin- Seems to have a good pedigree and decent reviews.
The Whale- Brendan Fraser appears to be the Best Actor frontrunner, and those films tend to get a Best Picture nomination (Crazy Heart is the last time anyone got an Oscar for Best Actor in a film that wasn't nominated for Best Picture; it's also the only time this happened since the category was expanded.) It also seems to be in the running for Best Supporting Actress.
Woman King- 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. A crowdpleaser that is also "important."
Tár- Reviews are good, and there's a comeback narrative for Director Todd Field, who hasn't made a new movie in 16 years. Cate Blanchett was in two nominated films last year (Nightmare Alley, Don't Look Up).

Current premature thoughts on other frontrunners...
Triangle of Sadness- It won the Palme d'Or but reviews are weak. This also seems like an environment where it's better for a foreign artist to make a film in their home language.
The Son- Reviews aren't great.
Till- The cast and director are largely unknown.
She Said- This is a bit of a black box in that we don't know how it will be received, and there's an unknown director, with a decent cast and producer Brad Pitt on an important timely topic that may be overshadowed by Women Talking.
Elvis- I just don't see it having the staying power.
Amsterdam- It depends on the reviews.
Bardo- It's hard for a lengthy foreign-language film to get nominated for Best Picture, especially with mixed reviews.

[Nods]

Amsterdam (David Russell) (20th Century Fox)
Babylon (Damien Chazale) (Paramount)
Black Panther Wakanda Forever (Ryan Coogler) (Disney)
Bones and All (Luca Guadagnino) (Warner Brothers)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert) (A24)
The Fabelmans (Stephen Speilberg) (Universal)
Glass Onion (Rian Johnson) (Netflix)
Tar (Todd Field) (Focus Features)
Top Gun Maverick (Joseph Kosinski) (Paramount)
The Whale (Darren Aronofsky) (A24)

Where the studio money ends up going is a big factor in what gets nominated

[Mister Mets]

Two updates...

The Fabelmans just won the Audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, which generally correlates to a Best Picture nomination, and also means one less chance for other films (Women Talking, The Son, Greatest Beer Run Ever)( to break out.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/mo...ns-1235223022/

The Woman King had decent box office and a great cinemascore, so it's off to a good start.
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/09/th...ce-1234763779/

[BeastieRunner]

A24 is having quite the year regardless.

[Batfleck89]

Yeah but i am kind of wondering now about bubble films and favorites that could end up in consideration for best picture like 1) women talking 2) She said 3) the son 4) elvis 5) glass onion a knives out mystery 6) blonde 7) top gun maverick 8) everything everywhere all at once 9) Black panther wakanda forever 10) avatar the way of water 11) The batman 12) weird the al yankovic story. Yeah the academy has their work cut out for them this year even more so than previous years!