Current Spider-Man Sales

[Lee]

On online comic forums there's often a double-standard where if a comic the poster likes is doing well then it's a cause for celebration, but if a comic the poster doesn't like is doing well then it's fake news or could be doing better. And the way it could be doing better is invariably by appealing to the poster's personal tastes.

[Kaitou D. Kid]

If Marvel is leaving money on the table, they are definitely collecting on it now via USM! Still seems like the current approach to ASM and USM is an efficient strategy for Marvel.

They could be collecting even more money if ASM undoes OMD (or at least if they get Peter and MJ back together).

It's not like Hickman's USM and Pre-OMD ASM are interchangeable. They're still two different stories, and there's no reason to think the fans buying USM will always be against buying both books.

[Xix25]

Feels like the amount of handwringing over sales numbers doesn't really make up for the general differemce in quality of the premises of the current ASM run and Hickman's USM. Too much words to try and justify the gap IMO.

[MisterTorgo]

Sure. I'm just thinking about how to assess uncertainty.

In general, most things could be a bit more popular. But sometimes you have big hits, such that if you have the power to go back in time to tinker with it, you'd easily make things worse.

Marvel settled on a new direction roughly two and a half years ago. They could have gone with different creative teams and story mandates. But I don't think they'd want another roll at the dice, because this has been a decent outcome. My sense of it is that if they tried things over again, there's a 1 in ten chance it would be more successful, and a 1 in ten chance it would be as successful. Maybe there's a 4 in 10 chance that it would be successful, but not as big it is right now.

There are things that could've gone differently. Ms Marvel's death got some bad publicity. It may have made more sense to reveal what happened to MJ earlier, But it's also possible that the series would not have been as popular if they took the steps to fix that stuff. Perhaps by shuffling the order of stories around, they make Dark Web less satisfying.

It is consistently Marvel's best-selling ongoing title. Wells seems to be on time, and gets along with people. The artists selected for the title are excellent, which suggests faith from editorial.

Ultimate Spider-Man is doing awesome right now, but we don't really have a sense of where sales will settle.

I mean, if Amazing isn't always number 1 in its field every single time, by whatever available metric, it by definition could be doing better. Again, speaking purely sales-wise. I can't say what would happen if someone went back in time and redid they creative decisions that got us all here but it's beside my point.

Going forward, while I'm sure there are people who would drop the title if One More Day were undone, there would surely also be a great many who would return, how many, I could not say. Of course, my gut wants me to say that more would pick it up than would drop it but I have no real evidence for that so I won't. But there would undoubtedly be massive press and hubbub (online and in-store, paid and unpaid), so I'd wager on a sales bump. Of course, then the question becomes, just like Ultimate: do those sales last?
I can only hope so.

[Vegan]

They could be collecting even more money if ASM undoes OMD (or at least if they get Peter and MJ back together).

It's not like Hickman's USM and Pre-OMD ASM are interchangeable. They're still two different stories, and there's no reason to think the fans buying USM will always be against buying both books.

Yeah, the only thing stopping Marvel from collecting $4 more dollars from me (and many others, I'm sure) every two weeks is that the quality of ASM is exceedingly poor. I'd be happy to give them more of my money, and in fact, often tell them directly how they could do that.

[TinkerSpider]

It's doing pretty well right now. What about its current ranking suggests Marvel would want to do things differently?

We don’t know how the overall market is doing.

We don’t know if the market has shrunk or expanded month over month, or year over year.

For example, it’s one thing to be #1 selling pickup truck in North America. That’s a big market.

It’s quite another to be the #1 selling horse buggy in North America. That’s a much smaller market that is currently far from approaching the numbers the buggy market had its heyday.

We don’t know if ASM is selling more this year than last year. We don’t know if X-Men sales have fallen 25% from the time they dominated the market, 75%, or if the book’s sales have grown 1115% but other books have grown even more.

We don’t know if the #2 book sold 5 issues less than the #1 book or 5000 issues less. (We do get an idea from the Bleeding Cool weekly chart, which assigns a ratio to the top 10 books - with USM #1 and #2 a stunning ~40 points ahead of the number two books that week - but the same caveats apply as Bleeding Cool is using the same ComicHub data).

We don’t know how many books ship, which is the real metric Marvel cares about, because once a book is shipped, Marvel has its money. Retailers could set every issue they receive on fire and that would not affect Marvel’s bottom line at all.

The ranking is an unscientific sample of 125 stores/3000+, and does not include digital sales nor does it rank graphic novels and/or manga, which make up the total addressable market and are an indication of additional customers that have a chance of being captured.

ALL the ranking measures is how books rank compared to each other based on sell thru in certain stores - which do not include some very well known retailers in major cities like Midtown Comics in NYC or Golden Apple in LA - over a set period of time. And yes, with those caveats, ASM does very well.

Want to know why one issue of ASM always ranks several rungs below the other each month?

Because one issue has two more weeks on the shelves over the period being measured than the other. In reality, the other issue of ASM may have actually sold more, but the charts don’t show that because they only look at a set period of time. Other books that month may actually sell more as well, but because they came out later in the month, they had less time to get on the chart.

I predict ASM is going to have a hard time hitting the #1 spot from now on. Not because of USM, but because ASM has switched from shipping the 1st and 3rd of the month to the 2nd and 4th weeks of the month, so it won’t have that extra week to sell. I will also point out that USM #2 shipped the third week of the month, so it made the #1 slot with less weeks than when the ASM issue shipped the first week would take the top slot.

However, I’m also going to point out that USM will be shipping the 4th week of March and April. If USM doesn’t dominate the charts those months, it does not mean USM is failing or has lost readers or is falling out of favor:

All it will mean is that USM has less days to chart. Same goes for the ASM issue shipping the 4th week.

Hanging arguments on the rankings on a chart that is pretty much noise with very little actual usable data is…not very productive IMO. All that chart tells you is how well an issue did compared to another issue over a certain period of time in ~125 stores. That’s it. No more, no less. And, no, scientifically, one cannot use the chart to make definitive statements about the market because the data is flawed and biased due to being self-selected. Ask anyone who has a baseline knowledge of statistics.

So why should Marvel want to do things differently?

Because we have additional data points that point to USM not only selling well but tremendously well. And, what one would assume more importantly for Marvel, new faces are picking up USM according to retailer reports. The question of how much money is Marvel potentially leaving on the table is a very valid one.

One can only increase sales by selling more product to the same customer (aka the variant game) before it becomes diminishing returns. The market needs new buyers to thrive.

[MisterTorgo]

We don’t know how the overall market is doing.

We don’t know if the market has shrunk or expanded month over month, or year over year.

For example, it’s one thing to be #1 selling pickup truck in North America. That’s a big market.

It’s quite another to be the #1 selling horse buggy in North America. That’s a much smaller market that is currently far from approaching the numbers the buggy market had its heyday.

We don’t know if ASM is selling more this year than last year. We don’t know if X-Men sales have fallen 25% from the time they dominated the market, 75%, or if the book’s sales have grown 1115% but other books have grown even more.

We don’t know if the #2 book sold 5 issues less than the #1 book or 5000 issues less. (We do get an idea from the Bleeding Cool weekly chart, which assigns a ratio to the top 10 books - with USM #1 and #2 a stunning ~40 points ahead of the number two books that week - but the same caveats apply as Bleeding Cool is using the same ComicHub data).

We don’t know how many books ship, which is the real metric Marvel cares about, because once a book is shipped, Marvel has its money. Retailers could set every issue they receive on fire and that would not affect Marvel’s bottom line at all.

The ranking is an unscientific sample of 125 stores/3000+, and does not include digital sales nor does it rank graphic novels and/or manga, which make up the total addressable market and are an indication of additional customers that have a chance of being captured.

ALL the ranking measures is how books rank compared to each other based on sell thru in certain stores - which do not include some very well known retailers in major cities like Midtown Comics in NYC or Golden Apple in LA - over a set period of time. And yes, with those caveats, ASM does very well.

Want to know why one issue of ASM always ranks several rungs below the other each month?

Because one issue has two more weeks on the shelves over the period being measured than the other. In reality, the other issue of ASM may have actually sold more, but the charts don’t show that because they only look at a set period of time. Other books that month may actually sell more as well, but because they came out later in the month, they had less time to get on the chart.

I predict ASM is going to have a hard time hitting the #1 spot from now on. Not because of USM, but because ASM has switched from shipping the 1st and 3rd of the month to the 2nd and 4th weeks of the month, so it won’t have that extra week to sell. I will also point out that USM #2 shipped the third week of the month, so it made the #1 slot with less weeks than when the ASM issue shipped the first week would take the top slot.

However, I’m also going to point out that USM will be shipping the 4th week of March and April. If USM doesn’t dominate the charts those months, it does not mean USM is failing or has lost readers or is falling out of favor:

All it will mean is that USM has less days to chart. Same goes for the ASM issue shipping the 4th week.

Hanging arguments on the rankings on a chart that is pretty much noise with very little actual usable data is…not very productive IMO. All that chart tells you is how well an issue did compared to another issue over a certain period of time in ~125 stores. That’s it. No more, no less. And, no, scientifically, one cannot use the chart to make definitive statements about the market because the data is flawed and biased due to being self-selected. Ask anyone who has a baseline knowledge of statistics.

So why should Marvel want to do things differently?

Because we have additional data points that point to USM not only selling well but tremendously well. And, what one would assume more importantly for Marvel, new faces are picking up USM according to retailer reports. The question of how much money is Marvel potentially leaving on the table is a very valid one.

One can only increase sales by selling more product to the same customer (aka the variant game) before it becomes diminishing returns. The market needs new buyers to thrive.

Bolded for emphasis but I agree with all of this.

[wleakr]

One can only increase sales by selling more product to the same customer (aka the variant game) before it becomes diminishing returns. The market needs new buyers to thrive.

Raising the price of the product AND selling more of it.

And when returns diminish, raise it some more!

[SturdyMike89]

They could be collecting even more money if ASM undoes OMD (or at least if they get Peter and MJ back together).

It's not like Hickman's USM and Pre-OMD ASM are interchangeable. They're still two different stories, and there's no reason to think the fans buying USM will always be against buying both books.

There is nothing to say that a lot of fans aren't buying both books. I hate to say it, but all I think Marvel is going to take from this is if they offer a version of Spidey that is married, they won't have to change the mainstream one which they seem hellbent on keeping in stasis i.e. struggling to pay the bills, the underdog, and unmarried. They probably want to keep him this way because they feel it is the most accessible version in regard to movie and television adaptations. It's time to face the hard truth: the marriage isn't coming back no matter how much we want it to. Marvel hasn't budged in 17 years, and they aren't going to now.

[Kaitou D. Kid]

There is nothing to say that a lot of fans aren't buying both books.

Yes, but more fans seem to be buying USM than ASM based on everything we heard from retailers. That suggests Marvel is leaving money on the table with ASM.

I hate to say it, but all I think Marvel is going to take from this is if they offer a version of Spidey that is married, they won't have to change the mainstream one which they seem hellbent on keeping in stasis i.e. struggling to pay the bills, the underdog, and unmarried. They probably want to keep him this way because they feel it is the most accessible version in regard to movie and television adaptations.

I mean, if that's what they think, they're just objectively wrong about that. 616 Spidey is the only version off-brand right now. MCU Spider-Man is in love with MJ and looks like will reunite with her by next film (they won't replace Zendaya). Insomniac Peter and MJ are living together. Peter B is married to MJ and has a child with her. Even if we we believe the rumors about a Raimi Spider-Man 4, Tobey is married to MJ there. USM is way more on brand than Wells' ASM right now.

It's time to face the hard truth: the marriage isn't coming back no matter how much we want it to. Marvel hasn't budged in 17 years, and they aren't going to now.

With respect, Spider-Man fans love to say this but the math doesn't actually add up. The guys behind OMD were in their forties when they implemented it, so of course things won't go away in 17 years. Not all of them are retired (Brevoort is still there).

The good news is that there is no evidence of the OMD editors and writers having inspired a new gen of editors and writers to keep OMD alive. If anything they seem to be alone in their stance, so it's not a stretch to assume that just like with DC and Didio, it will only take a few a handful of people leaving the company to undo certain things.

[SturdyMike89]

Yes, but more fans seem to be buying USM than ASM based on everything we heard from retailers. That suggests Marvel is leaving money on the table with ASM.



I mean, if that's what they think, they're just objectively wrong about that. 616 Spidey is the only version off-brand right now. MCU Spider-Man is in love with MJ and looks like will reunite with her by next film (they won't replace Zendaya). Insomniac Peter and MJ are living together. Peter B is married to MJ and has a child with her. Even if we we believe the rumors about a Raimi Spider-Man 4, Tobey is married to MJ there. USM is way more on brand than Wells' ASM right now.



With respect, Spider-Man fans love to say this but the math doesn't actually add up. The guys behind OMD were in their forties when they implemented it, so of course things won't go away in 17 years. Not all of them are retired (Brevoort is still there).

The good news is that there is no evidence of the OMD editors and writers having inspired a new gen of editors and writers to keep OMD alive. If anything they seem to be alone in their stance, so it's not a stretch to assume that just like with DC and Didio, it will only take a few a handful of people leaving the company to undo certain things.

With respect there are three points that I would like to bring up. 1. Ultimate Spider-Man's success could be seen as due to the creative talent the book has and the fact that a lot of first and second issues tend to have eyes on them. Some of the people reading it might just be curious what all the hype is about. Not me, I love the book. It will be more telling to me if they are still number one six months from now or if Amazing or something else takes its place. 2. As others have pointed out, the discission to keep MJ and Peter apart may be more of an edict from Disney or Sony themselves than anyone actually working at Marvel. Yes, there are plenty of other versions of Spidey out there who are in a relationship or even married, but the company may want to keep the "mainstream" version of the character at default so that new readers aren't confused. It's stupid I know but it is how corporations tend to think. And before someone says that Disney only publishes Marvel comics and has no knowledge or connection in the stories they publish, well maybe, but I tend to doubt it. 3. Marvel has made it painfully aware that they know fans hate OMD. They simply don't care. They want fans mad and hate reading. To say nothing of the fact that if it were down to a couple people blocking the marriage (unlikely with a character this popular and a company that big), then the fact they are still there means that nothing is going to happen anyway. And 17 years is an important statistic. It can't be underplayed. There would be a lot of fans that would be pissed now because the Spidey they have known for over a decade and a half has all of a sudden been undone so fans from twenty years ago can get their Spider-Man back. The idea that they would just undo this story that late in the game seems unlikely to me. Enjoy Ultimate. Treasure it I know I do. But it is not going to change a thing in the 616. That is the hard truth.

[Kaitou D. Kid]

With respect there are three points that I would like to bring up. 1. Ultimate Spider-Man's success could be seen as due to the creative talent the book has and the fact that a lot of first and second issues tend to have eyes on them. Some of the people reading it might just be curious what all the hype is about. Not me, I love the book. It will be more telling to me if they are still number one six months from now or if Amazing or something else takes its place.

The marriage isn't the only factor USM is doing well, but it's undeniably one of the factors. Not only was it primarily marketed on the marriage and Peter's family, but Hickman's previous (G.O.D.S.) didn't do well even though it was Hickman.

2. As others have pointed out, the discission to keep MJ and Peter apart may be more of an edict from Disney or Sony themselves than anyone actually working at Marvel. Yes, there are plenty of other versions of Spidey out there who are in a relationship or even married, but the company may want to keep the "mainstream" version of the character at default so that new readers aren't confused. It's stupid I know but it is how corporations tend to think. And before someone says that Disney only publishes Marvel comics and has no knowledge or connection in the stories they publish, well maybe, but I tend to doubt it.

Cebulski already confirmed that Peter not being married is a preference and not a mandate. That strongly implies that it's only some editors in the comics division that care, and Disney and Sony don't care. In fact, we know they don't care because Feige praised Peter and MJ together and Peter's teaching job multiple times, while Sony floated around the idea of making Andrew's Peter a high school teacher for ASM3.

3. Marvel has made it painfully aware that they know fans hate OMD. They simply don't care. They want fans mad and hate reading. To say nothing of the fact that if it were down to a couple people blocking the marriage (unlikely with a character this popular and a company that big), then the fact they are still there means that nothing is going to happen anyway. And 17 years is an important statistic. It can't be underplayed. There would be a lot of fans that would be pissed now because the Spidey they have known for over a decade and a half has all of a sudden been undone so fans from twenty years ago can get their Spider-Man back. The idea that they would just undo this story that late in the game seems unlikely to me. Enjoy Ultimate. Treasure it I know I do. But it is not going to change a thing in the 616. That is the hard truth.

Pretty much everything we know about Millennial and Gen Z Spider-Man fans is that they want to see Peter and MJ together even more than older fans. Why would those fans be opposed to undoing OMD?

If it is just Brevoort and a few editors that haven't reached retirement age (which they wouldn't in just 17 years), and especially if there's no evidence that younger editors and writers think like them, then yes that is absolutely important information. Nothing about that suggests it will never go away, especially with what a huge PR liability it has become. I mean, you can make this exact argument about DC and Didio, that it wasn't just one or two guys making all these decisions like to kill Wally for good or keep Superman and Lois apart... and now we know it totally was. It's even more believable with Marvel because Disney views their comics division as not that important besides just generating future stories for the MCU.

[wleakr]

So the plan is to wait out current Marvel editorial and creatives for retirement thus allowing younger talent to take over those positions to steer the 616 Spider-man ship back into a marraige era?

Well, I guess that could work.

Might be another 5, 10, 20, 30 years, though.

Marvel isn't the auto industry, where folks can't wait and count the days to retire. They are going to stick with the company for as long as they are having fun doing it.

The plan can also work the other way. Marvel can wait until current readers retire and wait on the next batch of readers who will not be as strongly attached to "history".

[fjmac]

The plan can also work the other way. Marvel can wait until current readers retire and wait on the next batch of readers who will not be as strongly attached to "history".

Except that it’s been decades since the big two stopped being able to draw in new readers in a sustainable way. Once enough readers who started during the 80s and 90s give up comics there’ll be trouble because there are simply not enough readers who started during the 00s, 10s and 20s to keep things going.

[Kaitou D. Kid]

So the plan is to wait out current Marvel editorial and creatives for retirement thus allowing younger talent to take over those positions to steer the 616 Spider-man ship back into a marraige era?

Well, I guess that could work.

Might be another 5, 10, 20, 30 years, though.

Marvel isn't the auto industry, where folks can't wait and count the days to retire. They are going to stick with the company for as long as they are having fun doing it.

Quesada and those before him and now retired.

The plan can also work the other way. Marvel can wait until current readers retire and wait on the next batch of readers who will not be as strongly attached to "history".

It's been talked about ad nauseum, but there is no evidence of younger readers being any more pro-OMD or even neutral on OMD. The hate for it hasn't died down even though I wasn't even in high school when it happened.