The main lesson the Ukrainians must learn, and quickly, is that they cannot predicate their strategy on a steady supply of weapons and ammunition from the United States. U.S. support was critical to the Avdiivka holding out for as long as it did despite the city being just five miles from one of the biggest concentrations of Russian forces in all of occupied Ukraine. The end of U.S. support late last year—the consequence of Russia-aligned Republicans gaining a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives—was the decisive factor in the gradual collapse of Avdiivka’s defenses. In short, the defenders simply ran out of ammunition. Ammunition the Americans once supplied.
Before Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Avdiivka was home to 30,000 people and significant heavy industry. After February 2022, many of the civilians began leaving—and the 110th Brigade dug in for a long defensive campaign. Twenty months later, the 2,000-person brigade still was there. It was early October 2023, and the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies—together with around 40,000 troops and thousands of vehicles—rolled toward the city. For two months, the Ukrainians not only held the line, they inflicted devastating casualties on the attackers—by mid-December killing or maiming 13,000 Russians and knocking out several hundred vehicles.
Ukrainian correspondent Yuriy Butusov in November explained how Avdiivka might continue to hold. He advised Ukraine’s eastern command to reinforce Avdiivka’s flanks. In blocking a Russian encirclement from the north and south, the 110th and adjacent brigades could turn the lowlands around the city into “a great shooting range for our guns.” Indeed, that’s exactly what happened. The elite 47th Mechanized Brigade rolled into Stepove, just north of Avdiivka, with its tanks and American-made M-2 fighting vehicles. The 53rd Mechanized Brigade set up in Sjeverne, three miles west of Avdiivka, stiffening the southern flank.
As shocking as Russian losses were around Avdiivka in the initial assaults, they seem to have gotten worse later in 2023 as Russian commanders held back their remaining vehicles and sent in the infantry, on foot. It’s possible, as Avdiivka teeters in mid-February, that the Russians may end up paying for its capture—more accurately, demolition—with tens of thousands of lives and nearly 700 vehicles. In manpower terms, that’s the equivalent of losing an entire field army.
[...]
Which is not to say Avdiivka’s fall was inevitable.
It was a choice—by Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress. When these lawmakers declined to approve further aid to Ukraine starting in October—coincidentally, around the same time the Russians attacked Avdiivka—the guns the 110th Mechanized Brigade was counting on to turn Avdiivka’s flanks into a shooting gallery began to fall silent. America was, after all, the main supplier of artillery and rocket ammunition and modern armored vehicles—including the fearsome M-2s—to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukrainian artillery quickly went from matching Russian artillery’s firepower to firing just a fifth as many shells as the Russians do. By last week, the 110th’s ammo stocks were “extremely small,” Butusov warned. Two-pound drones packed with a pound of explosives and ranging just a couple of miles couldn’t replace 155-millimeter artillery shells packing 25 pounds of explosives and ranging 15 miles. Increasingly unafraid of Ukrainian guns, Russian troops in recent days could walk to within small-arms range of Avdiivka’s Hrushevsky Street.
[...]