I am not quite sure if I understand everything. Neither do I understand why you choose the basic chance of 50/50 because I think it doesnt fit with this example. But I understand your "essence": the calculated chance to not win with 73 or 83 boxes ir rather low. This is what I quoted as well. My result is: the chance of winning a hero with one box must be rather low (or lower than the suggested/quoted 10%) , this would explain the high chance to NOT win a hero with 73 or 83 boxes.Even if they do not have skewed odds (which we know not to be the case because they have said so), the chance of winning a hero when you purchase a box could be expressed in its most basic probability, you will either get a hero, or you won't. So 50/50.
This means in order for the answer to be, "you won't", on X number of boxes, the odds are 1/(2^X). (e.g. buy one box= 1/2 chance, buy two boxes=1/4 chance, 3 boxes=1/8, etc.)
So, for people to say they got, "you won't" 71 or 83 times in a row, means the odds were 1/(2^71) and 1/(2^83) respectively. That is just incredibly low probability, and that is even if we say the chance is completely even that you will or won't get a hero.
Now for the bad news. Again, assuming the odds are equal for "you will" or "you won't", the odds for your next box purchase is 50/50. And the box after that, and the box after that, etc.
If you want to better understand how past odds do not affect future odds , do a search for "Gambler's fallacy" sometime.
I got lucky enough to get the EOTE Badge, too. I feel guilty about my good fortune now. The badge IS awesome.
You might consider springing for the $10 for one month, which will get you 5,000 gold over the 30 days (if you're persistent)... that's 25 boxes, plus the higher chance for a good prize. Plus you could buy some agent-only heroes for silver, if you don't have any. I highly recommend Iron Man Mk I, and Ultimate Thor is pretty awesome as well. Also, you get to play any agent-only heroes you buy, even after your membership ends.
Actually I am thinking of the one month membership, but not for the boxes. I have Mysterio, Exo Falcon, Avenging Wolverine and the new Captain America in mind + their Badges.
I´ve already got all the Shield heroes from the november 2013 one week SHSO-Membership.
Getting a LVL of 965 without paying is quite a challenge :-)
Last edited by chrishb; 05-26-2014 at 03:07 AM.
Hi! I wanted to share that I was one of the lucky few who just won this bundle!!! I was shocked when it showed up on the screen... I was even more happy that it also came with badges (I didn't know this until I checked out my squad). I can't be more happier after getting to see DOFP...
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Speaking of alternate dimension versions, I just found out about Arachnoman from a message at MrGamesRus' Agent Coulson gameplay video in Blast from the Past, where he has the yellow-and-green color scheme of Hydra. Maybe he will make it?
http://www.comicvine.com/arachnoman/4005-75124/
http://marvel.wikia.com/Arachnoman_(Earth-1610)
Human Torch/Fantastic Four/She-Hulk/Disney Big Hero 6 /Tangled/G.I. Joe: A Real American Hero/Transformers G1 fanatic, Avatar-maker, and Marvel Moderator
"一人じゃないから。" AI、『Story』。
"ヒロ、お前を信じてる。" タダシ、『ベイマックス』。
"You were my my new dream." "And you were mine." Eugene Fitzherbert and Rapunzel.
"Knowing is half the battle." G.I. Joe.
Know the CBR Community STANDARDS & RULES
When Iceman chases a robber. Hè says:' Hey! Cool it! That's against the law!'
When he wins a solo mission:'Score, one more for Iceman!
Last edited by roneers; 05-26-2014 at 08:07 AM.
Squad name: Glittering Sparrow Mentor
mostly playing as: Iceman
Signature Crisis Hero: Sabretooth
willing to play missions with others
Wow i am impressed by your achievement im only lvl 598 without paying for membership or having those codes! beating you will be quite an acheivement that is if i can!!
Edit: did Doc Ock get an upgrade because as i was versing him and when he does the spinning claw attack to wake up it did 35 damage per hit! Also i went form 300 health to 0
Last edited by sylvestro1299; 05-26-2014 at 08:55 AM.
Shso name: Loud Raker Guardian
Motto: De Omnibus Dubitandum
Anybody else have a problem like this with the world events before?
I just submitted over 18000 factals with a couple of seconds to go. The leaderboard even showed me as the winnner for a couple of minutes after the bidding was over. Then, inexplicably, it started showing fantastic kraken dragon as the winner (they only had 12000 or so factals, I had noticed they had been in the number 2 spot below me). Even if the server had clocked me in as having submitted too late, then why didn't my 18000 fractals show as being submitted for the next round?? Instead I have no fractals and the guy with only 12000+ fractals won. Big bummer.
any codebreakers recently? I havent read one since this place got renewed!
Shso name: Loud Raker Guardian
Motto: De Omnibus Dubitandum