New Mutants Movie

[ClanAskani]

Screenrant has posted their interview with Maisie Williams form 2017: https://screenrant.com/new-mutants-s...ahne-sinclair/

[Beantownbrown]

Anya Taylor-Joy Has Seen The Final Cut Of ‘The New Mutants’

“I have seen the final cut of the movie, which is really nice because Josh is really happy with it and it was just nice to get the gang all together again. ‘Cause it’s felt like this imaginary friend that you keep telling people is real but other people haven’t seen it yet, now I’m like, ‘no, I told you! It’s a real thing.’ And, I don’t really know how to feel about a lot of things right now. I have five movies coming out this year and I’m just trying to… eat my vegetables, and go to sleep, and take care of myself.”

[ClanAskani]

Still no rating yet from the MPAA. Disney's already rated Artemis Fowl and Mulan (which received an PG-13). But no New Mutants yet. Wondering if they'll start shipping tv spots with "this film is not yet rated". That can be a strategy for PG-13 horror movies that studios don't want people to know aren't R rated. But Disney doing that... would be weird.

[juan678]

Cecelia Reyes

[Uncanny X-Man]

I can't believe we're getting this in just a few weeks now! There's so many things that could go wrong with this movie but as far as I'm concerned, any X-Men movie is my #1 priority of the year and I for one am salivating at the thought of seeing Illyana, Sam, Dani and all the rest of the big screen!

[pandafarmer]

Yup, I'm not a fan of the FOX-Men movies in the slightest, but this is one is absolutely opening night viewing for me. These are my kids.

[juan678]

Anya Taylor-Joy “Illyana Rasputin / Magik” and Colbi Gannett “Young Illyana” - The New Mutants (2020)

[RamaBird]

This movie isn't going to fail. I actually see it making a buck like the Sonic movie. With that said, I can't imagine a scenario where this movie is so successful that Disney keeps the cast. Doesn't every Marvel movie make a billion these days so far?

It'll be a success but not enough for the cast to continue (Maybe Anya and Maisie are kept s their careers are still going strong). Then Disney will be encouraged by how well this movie did but they'll cast the right actors with melanin. Not because they're good about that but because they know how to make money by using minority characters.

[Conn Seanery]

Hey folks. I don't care which side you're on regarding the racial accuracy casting debate; if it bothers you, if it doesn't, if it bothers you but you're going to see it anyway, etc... if I see any more rude and condescending behavior towards those you disagree with people are going to get the boot (and some of you that are already on thin ice should know better by now). Be civil or go away.

[Maestroneto]

This movie isn't going to fail.

It’s slated for a $15 million opening weekend.

[RamaBird]

It’s slated for a $15 million opening weekend.

I think that's more based on it's reputation. Sonic was also slated for a weak opening due to it's reputation but the producers listened to fan outrage and changed Sonic. NM seems to have done the same by doing nothing and leaving it as is. That's why last trailer was well received.

Plus, isn't this a cheap movie? Most horror movies barely break 5 million in costs. I guess the CGI here and there pushes it up compared to normal horror movies. And don't forget the box office abroad. Last few XMEN movies bombed in America but made their money overseas.

So I stick to my prediticon this movie will make decent money considering it's having a similar trajectory as the Sonic movie.

[ClanAskani]

It’s slated for a $15 million opening weekend.

Correction, $15m - $25 Million. That's from BoxOfficePro.com who has no actually marketing data. The guy who runs that site's main sources are the posters on Box Office Forum who do (but that forum has lost most of their insiders) and HSX (which has been pretty much ruined as a way to predict box office by the people playing the players).

Actually having tracking data doesn't matter since Hollywood Report, Variety and Deadline were all drastically off for Birds of Prey, Sonic and now Call of the Wild - by as much as 25 Million. There wouldn't have been all the "Bird of Prey Flopped" headlines if the expectations were ridiculously high based on the trades. Their predictions were so off it was laughable.

Box Office Pro is just looking at online interest compared to other movies and especially comparing it to interest in Dark Phoenix. It's about half as much, so that's their estimate.

Actual industry predictions uses other metrics, especially surveying audiences and asking them if they want to go. That's absolutely unreliable because Under 25s say they want to see something and then don't go. Predicting based on presales also has been become less reliable since there's been a decrease in the percentage of people buying tickets weeks in advance. Both of these issues might be connected since people don't want to plan weeks out if they go see a movie. Presale figures only really factor into the projections the week of release but no longer is it even accurate to say Movie X had this many presales, so Movie Y will do this amount. It's so absolutely random.

So, the $15M might be right, or it could be off like the predictions for Birds of Prey, Call of the Wind and Sonic were.

It's too early for actual tracking numbers. Those come out this week.

IMO, some times BoxOfficePro is right. They can be more accurate than studio tracking because they look at whether people want to see a movie. The problem with studio tracking is they are hyper-focused at certain demos. For example, Call of the Wild appealed far more to over 50s than anyone would have thought. And that wasn't even the market for the movie. The tracking for Call of the Wild was that kids would see Sonic instead. BoxOfficePro is looking at how many people on Twitter are talking about a movie, regardless of how old they are. Studios are surveying individuals in a certain demo to see how they feel about a movie or that movie's stars.

[skyvolt2000]

This movie isn't going to fail. I actually see it making a buck like the Sonic movie. With that said, I can't imagine a scenario where this movie is so successful that Disney keeps the cast.

It'll be a success but not enough for the cast to continue (Maybe Anya and Maisie are kept s their careers are still going strong). Then Disney will be encouraged by how well this movie did but they'll cast the right actors with melanin. Not because they're good about that but because they know how to make money by using minority characters.

One issue-what else is coming out that same weekend let alone that month?

A new Peter Rabbit movie
A new Troll movie
A new Jordan Peele movie
Followed by James Bond

Doesn't every Marvel movie make a billion these days so far?

No and this film is not linked to the main Marvel universe as far as we know.

This is not sniffing a billion.

I think what might help this movie is it is opening during Easter weekend (and kids are OUT), Baseball is starting up, playoffs and some schools have weather days as well.

$15 million opening sounds right.

[ClanAskani]

One issue-what else is coming out that same weekend let alone that month?

A new Peter Rabbit movie
A new Troll movie
A new Jordan Peele movie
Followed by James Bond

Peter Rabbit 2 is PG. It's a younger audience. Trolls is two weeks later. James Bond has an older appeal. New Mutants has it's niche of a horror movie for tweens and younger teens. Mulan is the bigger competition the week before and has a PG-13 rating. The question whether that skews more female. The tv spots have focused on action for that male audience, which may not bring in the female audience who wants 90s nostalgia. And... people don't fit squarely into a demographic either as Call of the Wild proves.

But you never know. The timing of movies is beyond what studio marketing execs would like to believe that you can get an audience in the seats every single weekend. The bigger Mulan opens, the more that could take away from New Mutants' opening.

I don't have the Spring Break Report, but Deadline will start reporting the numbers of schools on Spring Break in a couple of weeks. That week should be pretty high for junior and high schools. Disney had the option to move New Mutants up when Kong vs Godzilla was delayed but they wanted that date because of the percentage of schools off.

It's not going to make a billion. Comparables aren't other Marvel movies, probably not even other X-Men movies. Just based on current Fox releases and a similar release, there is justification for saying it opens larger than $25 Million. But after what happened with Birds of Prey, I have no clue. The tracking for that did not suggest where it opened. At least online interest and probably tracking is below Shazaam in the same time last year, but that looked like it was going to open soft and there was a huge digital push.

I won't bore everyone with more marketing talk, but one thing that's interesting is the Warner Bros had that same type of digital push with Birds of Prey and it failed. Sonic's marketing was far more traditional - including billboards and bus advertising. The boring stuff. And it worked. Call of the Wild did traditional advertising too since that's seen as the way to reach parents. New Mutants probably is primarily digital.

[franckd]

There is one factor that can help the movie for its opening : it's not a X-Men movie. It doesn't hold the "sins" of the double trilogy, or its heavy convoluted continuity.

There is also a curiosity factor to take in account. To be honest, I never believed in Dark Phoenix movie. But I am open minded about The New Mutants one.