All-purpose news and politics thread: Two Steps Beyond!

[PaulBullion]

[JBatmanFan05]

Mostly good article from Slate: "Why Rising Wages Scare the Heck Out of Investors"

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released a strong jobs report showing wages rising at their fastest rate since the Great Recession. Then, the stock market promptly began to plummet. The Dow Jones fell an amusingly on-the-nose 666 points—its worst day since the UK’s Brexit surprise. Global markets subsequently took a beating, and U.S. equities are still sliding as I write this today.

Why is good news for workers turning into bad news for shareholders? The answer is a useful illustration of why the stock market is often a poor guide to the overall health of the economy.

Right now, traders seem to be worried that if wages rise too fast, it will cause the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in order to head off inflation down the road. When, earlier this year, the central bank suggested that it would raise rates, much of the market was skeptical, in part because inflation has been so subdued for so long. But faster pay-gains for workers make it more likely the Fed will follow through, both because rising wages are a sign that the whole economy is heating up, and because employers will eventually have to raise prices to keep up with the cost of labor.

If the Fed does hike quickly, it will slow down the pace of growth a bit, and could put a damper on corporate profits. But that’s probably not the main reason Wall Streeters are in a tizzy. The thing you have to keep in mind is that stock prices have been propped up for years now by low interest rates around the world. Investors haven’t been able to make much money on safe assets like American and European government bonds. So instead, they’ve piled money into riskier bets like sovereign debt from developing nations and stocks.

As interest rates go up, and money managers can suddenly make a better return on vanilla investments like Treasuries, we should expect stocks to deflate a bit. That prospect seems to be driving the last couple days of trading—not investor disdain for the working class.

This is all a reminder that Donald Trump’s incessant bragging about the bull market has been absurd from the start. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are not barometers for the well-being of the whole economy (heck, the Dow isn’t even a good barometer of the stock market). Sometimes prices go up because the economy is doing well. Sometimes they go down because of it. And as of this month, the economy seems just a bit too strong for shareholders’ tastes.

https://slate.com/business/2018/02/w...investors.html

[TakoM]

No, it’s imploding. It has had the worst leadership imaginable, since the saloon bar demagogue Farage left his position.

UKIP’s a curious beast, though. It wasn’t founded by someone like LePen; it was set up by an academic historian called Alan Sked, who eventually was forced out as leader by Farage. For a long time, though, it managed a balancing act; it could draw in support from traditional Tories and the far right, and some disenchanted Labour supporters as well. It’s high water mark was the 2015
General Election, when it gained 3.8 million votes, but in retrospect it had benefited hugely from the collapse of the fascist British National Party and from the (relative) social liberalism of the Cameron Tory Party, which had alienated some of its core supporters.

Fast forward to 2017, and its vote had dropped to 594,068. Far from coincidentally, that’s roughly the same amount the BNP got back in 2010.

So they’ve been knocked down to that level. But does it matter? They have won. The UK is going to exit the EU. UKIP was never going to win power in the British political system. The worst case scenario was that they become reabsorbed into a Tory Party which turns to an increasingly hardline, anti-immigration, nationalist stance and, the very real fear must be, will end up electing a populist charlatan like Johnson into power.

From far it really looks like Tory absorbed UKIP. UKIP itself had the problem it had mainly only one target = Brexit on the other hand Tory is the typical conservative-republican company friendly party because of this they gave the senate basically the right to deny the leaving contract with the EU. Which is stupid because then you leave without contract it won't stop the Brexit itself.

There are other fascinating stories here :
1. 'The people didn't know about what they voted they want vote again' its hard to thing that is true maybe for some on the other hand people had reasons to vote this way.
2. 'When Britain leaves the EU, it automatically loses access to around 750 international agreements. For while they will continue to enjoy free access to the British market after Brexit, they can choose to grant the British the same right in return. At the same time, however, the British will remain with one leg in the EU: at their own request, they will be given a transitional phase after Brexit. Although London should lose all seats in the institutions of the EU, but otherwise continue to be treated as a member until the end of 2020 - with all rights and obligations. This also applies to the free trade agreements.' I don't know where the authors have this kind of information but it doesn't make any sense and there isn't any such agreement yet.

[GindyPosts]

Good article from Slate: "Why Rising Wages Scare the Heck Out of Investors"

https://slate.com/business/2018/02/w...investors.html

Ah, yea. Paying the grunts more money means businesses go out of business. The Cost Of Living be damned.


I'm not saying burger flippers deserve $15 an hour, but the minimum wage should be raised to at least $8.

[Tami]

Think California politics is on the far-left fringe? Just wait for the next elections.

SACRAMENTO — For those who think California politics is on the far-left fringe of the national spectrum, stand by. The next election season, already well underway here, will showcase a younger generation of Democrats that is more liberal and personally invested in standing up to President Trump’s Washington than those leaving office.

Here in the self-labeled “state of resistance,” the political debate is being pushed further left without any sign of a Republican renaissance to serve as a check on spending and social policy ambitions. Even some Republicans are concerned about the departure of Gov. Jerry Brown (D), who proved to be fiscally cautious after inheriting a state seven years ago in deep recession.

The race to succeed him, as well as contests for U.S. Senate and statewide offices, probably will feature a November ballot exclusively filled with Democrats. The top two primary finishers compete in the state’s general election regardless of party, setting up several races between the Democrats’ left and even-more-left wings in the nation’s most-populous state, races that could signal the direction of the party’s future.

[TakoM]

Ah, yea. Paying the grunts more money means businesses go out of business. The Cost Of Living be damned.


I'm not saying burger flippers deserve $15 an hour, but the minimum wage should be raised to at least $8.

Its hard to say but the first going out of business are usually the ones which have the lowest wages and under normal circumstances this balance itself out because more when companies go bankrupt new workers flood the market and the wages starts to go down again. The problem which is for 'them' is you got high inflation and lower gain we had this situation in the 70's. The interest rates I think nobody really believe they will go up fast mainly because so many have high debts in private, companies and the state .

[Kirby101]

Mostly good article from Slate: "Why Rising Wages Scare the Heck Out of Investors"

https://slate.com/business/2018/02/w...investors.html

So the one thing Trump claimed success for, he has nothing to do with.

Making him a total failure.

The only thing he might succeed in is destroying the domestic solar energy industry, destroying consumer protection and bankrupting the country.

Hecka a job Brownie.

[Mister Mets]

There was an interesting result fro a survey on trans issues in Minnesota high schools.

81,000 students were polled. The expectation was that less than one percent would identify as "non-gender binary." The result was three percent (2,200 described themselves as transgender or gender nonconforming.)

It could be a flawed study, or a flawed sample set, though it raises some interesting questions, which may not be mutually exclusive. If the study is accurate, is there a large group of trans people who are in the closet, and the reason the number is so high is that a new generation is the first one comfortable being open about it? Or is American society and the educational system somehow socializing kids to be trans, or to identify in that way? Since transgender surgery is expensive and has some permanent side effects, these are things that have to be figured out.

[InformationGeek]

Remember folks, only the best and brightest for Trump, including his ambassador pick for Barbados!

Trump in January nominated Leandro Rizzuto Jr., a senior executive at Conair, to be the next ambassador to Barbados, as well as to serve concurrently as ambassador to Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, the Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. His nomination requires Senate confirmation.

During the height of the Republican presidential primary, Rizzuto spread smears about Trump's opponents, including Cruz, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a CNN KFile review of Rizzuto's Twitter account shows.

The revelation that one of Trump's ambassador nominees peddled conspiracy theories comes as dozens of ambassadorships across the globe remain vacant. A CNN analysis shows that 31 ambassador posts are awaiting presidential nominations and 10 nominees are still awaiting Senate confirmation.

Among the unfounded claims Rizzuto promoted were allegations that Cruz was unfaithful to his wife and that Heidi Cruz was a leading member in an effort to combine the governments of the US, Canada and Mexico.

A representative for the White House declined to comment. Reached by phone, Rizzuto told CNN that he could not comment based on guidelines from the State Department.

All of Rizzuto's tweets on his personal account have been deleted, but retweets dating back to February 2016 are still visible. The Twitter account shares a name with Rizzuto's since-scrubbed Facebook page. The account also follows and is followed by his friends, family members, colleagues and local businesses where Rizzuto lives.

In a now-deleted tweet archived through the Google cache and the social media site Favstar, Rizzoto told Cruz to "go back to Canada." In another tweet, he called Hillary Clinton "a terrorist with amnesia."

[JCAll]

There was an interesting result fro a survey on trans issues in Minnesota high schools.

81,000 students were polled. The expectation was that less than one percent would identify as "non-gender binary." The result was three percent (2,200 described themselves as transgender or gender nonconforming.)

It could be a flawed study, or a flawed sample set, though it raises some interesting questions, which may not be mutually exclusive. If the study is accurate, is there a large group of trans people who are in the closet, and the reason the number is so high is that a new generation is the first one comfortable being open about it? Or is American society and the educational system somehow socializing kids to be trans, or to identify in that way? Since transgender surgery is expensive and has some permanent side effects, these are things that have to be figured out.

How?

No seriously, I want to know how that line of thinking goes. You don't see recruitment drives and commercials airing as if it were some club you can just decide to join. The closest my school had to "socializing kids to be trans" was when big guys would hold smaller boys' heads in the toilet until you said you were a girl. Which I'm damn sure isn't the same thing.

[numberthirty]

It's official. Today, the stock market dropped roughly 1,000 points. Friday it lost 6,666. Thursday and Friday it combined to go +100, but it lost 363 on Tuesday.

All told, the stock market has fallen by almost 2,000 points in a week.

The Trump Recession has officially begun.

You have a source on that number? I thought today was a record.

[mojotastic]

How?

No seriously, I want to know how that line of thinking goes. You don't see recruitment drives and commercials airing as if it were some club you can just decide to join. The closest my school had to "socializing kids to be trans" was when big guys would hold smaller boys' heads in the toilet until you said you were a girl. Which I'm damn sure isn't the same thing.

2 words, the internet.

Which is also a 2 ways street.

[numberthirty]

Yeah, the joy ride wasn't going to last forever. Naturally, Trump will blame the traditional bogeymen for the decline in the Dow Jones.

Losing over 1,700 points in 2 business days is a depressing thought.

Well, how much of the "Record" value that has been happening was based on anything like reality?

[JCAll]

You have a source on that number? I thought today was a record.

I think an extra 6 got added in there.

[numberthirty]

I think an extra 6 got added in there.

Seems like it could be. The comma was what threw me.

Thought I might have missed some sort of a serious development.