Very happy that DOFP continues to rake in the dough.
It was great, and I have high hopes for X-Men: Apocalypse.
Wow remind me to fire my PR, take a vacation for a few days and I get crucified on these boards. LOL!
Anyway I wish we had access to our old profiles. There was a poll on 2014 CBM box office where I predicted this could do between $600M-$700M provided people turn a blind eye to Singers legal troubles.
I may dislike Singers take on this franchise but I'm not devoid of the fact that others do like it. I also took into account the people who were on the fence.
Thank you!
Contrary to people claiming I've been wrong, we're yet to see evidence backing it.
Do any Google search on who Hollywood turns an actual profit. And most will come up with the same thing. Which is that Studios don't make as much as people think they do, be if FOX, Disney, Sony or WB.
So if Singer and Jackmans previous bragging on the budget of this film being only to Avatar are any indication of who expensive this film was. It's safe to say the this film is still in hole. $200M budget + $200M marketing = $400M which they have to double to break even.
Keep in mind that EW stated the budget was as high as $275M, but I'll just leave it as $200M for the sake of argument.
I'm not going to budge on the marketing since it was clear that FOX broke the bank promoting this film in order to over shadow Singers legal issues so $800M is the magic number here in order for Fox to turn a profit. ($400m x 2)
What are you talking about? Iron Man made 318M domestically with a budget of 140M, more than double. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman.htm Even though the worldwide gross of DOFP will be higher than the first Iron Man, IM will be the more profitable because of the huge box office at home and lower budget/marketing costs.
I never said the current Marvel movies are a financial bomb, more of a domestic disappointment due to the big budget costs and great reviews(not ASM2). Crossing 200 million in North America is not that impressive if the movie cost 200M to make(and it could be higher).
Best thing is that its passed Spiderman domestically and is now only 39 million behind worldwide despite coming out 21 days later. It probably won't catch Cap domestically but worldwide it only needs another 50 million or so (currently is 48 million behind but Cap is on its last legs and probably won't make much more). Barring GOTG shocking everyone it could well be the #1 comic movie of the year which is a huge success no matter how you look at it.
Its beaten Spidey. Its going to to come close to Cap if not beat Cap as its running fairly close to where was Cap domestically after its 4th weekend.
Its already the #3 movie of the year domestically and if it beats Cap it will also beat Lego movie (the current #1 though Cap should overtake today or tomorrow). The only summer movie left that I see that might beat all of them is Transformers (which is just sad).
So I'm not sure how the potential #2 or #3 movie of the year (I'm assuming right now that Hobbit III beats all of them) is indifferent to US fans.
I don't think anyone really thinks GOTG will finish #1 (though I hope it does).
There is no movie blowing the doors off of domestic box office this year. But dont be surprised if How to train my dragon moves past cap and x-men. It opened only ok but family movies tend to hang around a long time and there is nothing to compete with it. Also Hunger games and Hobbit will both pass cap and x-men. Just to give you some perspective last summer 6 movies that opened around summer made 230 million or more domestic. Iron man 3, Man of steel, Despicable me 2, Monsters U, Fast and furious 6, and Star Trek.
This summer? Well lets see, Cap 2 made it, X-men will maybe do it, maybe Maleficent( maybe) Maybe Dragon, and Transformers. Possibly Apes but dont really seeing that making 230 million domestic. Its been a really weak year as far as a big break out domestic. Last summer alone you had IM3 making over 409 million domestic, and Despicable me making 368, plus MOS making 291, Monsters U 268.
Just to be clear guys, my "Box office logic" as it's been called is based off of several websites that all pretty much say the same thing when it comes to Hollywood turning a profit. I'm yet to see anyone who doubts those sites post anything that states differently.
http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-mone...-be-profitable
What people don't get is that even though the overseas market is much bigger Hollywood still relies on the US box office because it provides the biggest cut of the pie compared to Foreign numbers which are said to be as little as 15% of that box office after fees.
Take ASM2, here it is Sony's releasing this movie on Blu-ray/DVD a couple weeks before Winter Soldier which released a whole month earlier in theaters.
Why?
Because Spider-man cost more to make and didn't hit a certain mark in the box office. Sure it made a lot overseas but Sony really wasn't expecting such a huge decline in the US which really hurt them. And with the rumors of Sony borrowing a huge chunk of change in order to make this film they'll need Blu-ray/DVD sales to pay the piper.
So perhaps this franchise could be sold back to Marvel sooner than we could've imagined if Sony continues to hemorrhage money.
Last edited by YoungThanos; 06-17-2014 at 08:43 AM.
Those numbers are far to high. We don't know how much FOX spent on advertisement in total so guessing doesn't really help. It also doesn't help that advertisement often has no cost to it (Fox is a cable news network) and some promotional tie ins actually provide revenue (Advertising in the movie itself).
You are also using the general flop detector incorrectly. The reason why we x2 the production cost to see if the total gross exceeds that number is to include the hidden costs which is mostly advertising anyway. Even then when the full numbers are revealed the actual amount for advertisement is never as much as 2x the production cost. It's just a general tool used by speculators in the media and not a legitimate method for determining whether a movie is a flop or not.
If we applied your standards to any other film few would pass and the market would be worse than it already is.
#InGunnITrust, #ZackSnyderistheBlueprint, #ReleasetheAyerCut
They're not "MY" standards.
there based on the breakdown given here:
http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-mone...-be-profitable
And to be clear most films don't turn a profit strictly from box office figures. Which is where Blu-ray, T.V. viewings and Merchandising comes in.
Georges Lucas made millions off the Starwars films but made Billions off the actual merchandise. Fox and Sony don't have that luxury with Marvel films.
As for Marketing there's no way we can deny the epic bush behind DOFP especially with all the issues Singers got going on. Big budget movies have been known to match their budget to sell the movie Sony just recent put it out there with ASM2's 250M budget and $180M-$220M on marketing.
I don't think marketing for DOFP was any bigger than it was for other blockbusters that are coming out. Anyway, it has a chance of being the highest grossing comic book movie of the year so I doubt Fox is disappointed lol