If These Movies Succeed/Fail, What Will You Credit/Blame?

[Arfguy]

It's a great time to be a comic book fan. There's still four movies that are coming out, based on comic book characters. Batman vs. Superman, Civil War, X-Men: Apocalypse and Dr. Strange.

As far as pure numbers, Deadpool has definitely set the bar. Given that it's a rated-R movie and has limited screens and less market it's been released in (China's a big one), it has done really well for itself. I would say that the expectations are for each of the movies I've named to match the critical response, as well as the box office numbers that Deadpool has done.

Deadpool (84% RT Score or 8.4 IMDb rating) and $709 million worldwide box office will be the basis for the question posed next.

If any of the upcoming movies do better than the types of numbers Deadpool has done (critically and financially), what will be the things the movie makers did right, in your opinion? Same question if any of the movies fail to meet Deadpool's overall success.

I would also like to exclude the factor of "it was a good movie". I do not think the measure of how good or how bad a movie is plays a factor in box office numbers, which is where it counts the most if we as comic fans are to get more.

Basically, what I'm looking for is a prediction of why you think a movie will succeed or fail, beyond the "it was a well/poorly made movie" reasoning.

[kalorama]

As a practical matter, there's really no substantive way to answer that question without having actually seen any of the movies in question. Because if you want the answers to include specific details about what elements do and don't work, then we have to actually see those elements in action. Barring that knowledge, "it was a well/poorly made movie" is really the only answer available that rises about random, unsupported speculation (which, I'm sure, plenty of people will be willing to offer nonetheless).

[simbob4000]

Witches maybe?

[MarvelMaster616]

As of now, it's too hard to say which of these movies will succeed/fail/underperform/etc. But if I had to make a prediction, I'd say that X-men Apocalypse has the most chance of failing. I see in this movie the same flaws I saw in X3. It's the third movie in a trilogy. It's a movie full of major stars like Michael Fassbender and Jennifer Lawrence. And because of that, the movie is going to be built around these actors rather than the story. I think the biggest flaw in some of these movies is trying to rely on someone's star power over the actual story. That might work for names like Tom Cruise and Robert Downy Jr., but for the X-men franchise, which is built around a team, I don't think it can work.

I also think Captain America Civil War has a chance to come up short if it cannot find a way to cope with its bloated cast. This movie has so many characters and so many plots to explore. It might end up being too much. But after seeing the last trailer, I have a feeling that this movie will come out ahead of everyone else. And X-men Apocalypse will likely bring up the rear. But I've been wrong about these things before.

[RikWriter]

I agree that X-Men Apocalypse has the greatest chance of underperforming, and I would blame that mostly on coming out in a year where other superhero movies will overshadow it.

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

I agree that X-Men Apocalypse has the greatest chance of underperforming, and I would blame that mostly on coming out in a year where other superhero movies will overshadow it.

That's more how I feel about Doctor Strange, it's got underwhelming written all over it.

[RikWriter]

That's more how I feel about Doctor Strange, it's got underwhelming written all over it.

I think it will do ok, probably Ant-Man-like numbers. It's coming out in November, without much competition at that time.

[skyvolt2000]

It's a great time to be a comic book fan. There's still four movies that are coming out, based on comic book characters. Batman vs. Superman, Civil War, X-Men: Apocalypse and Dr. Strange.

Basically, what I'm looking for is a prediction of why you think a movie will succeed or fail, beyond the "it was a well/poorly made movie" reasoning.

Batman vs Superman could under perform. I got too many non comic book readers looking at me and asking WHY are they fighting? I look at the toys and they are doing what the new 52 ones have done -NOT SELLING. I see a ton of disinterest in that film outside of WW.

Civil War-I see a strong interest for Black Panther. I don't expect Deadpool numbers but it could happen.

X-Men-I think folks are fed up with that franchise.However it will probably be the low profit maker of the 4.

Strange-what else is coming out that could hurt it?

[RikWriter]

It's a great time to be a comic book fan. There's still four movies that are coming out, based on comic book characters. Batman vs. Superman, Civil War, X-Men: Apocalypse and Dr. Strange.

BTW you left off Suicide Squad.

[Arfguy]

BTW you left off Suicide Squad.

For the love of...damn! My bad, DC fans. Not meant as a slight, just absent-mindedness. Count that one amongst the ones I mentioned.

[JediMindTrick]

Dr Strange by far has the best chance of underwhelming. In a year with so many other big comic blockbusters its at biggest risk of being the also ran.

[Carabas]

Batman vs Superman could under perform. I got too many non comic book readers looking at me and asking WHY are they fighting? I look at the toys and they are doing what the new 52 ones have done -NOT SELLING.

Are we talking here about toys in actual toy shops that sell stuff that kids play with, or toys sold in comicbook shops, that sell to comicbook fans and collectors?

Anyway, Dawn Of Justice will 'underperform' because WB always has so very unrealistic expectations.

[choptop]

X-Men-I think folks are fed up with that franchise.

X-Men: First Class did $353 The Wolverine did $414 Days of Future Past did $747 and Deadpool is at $714+ its not looking like ppl are fed up with the X franchise to me.

[Siddon]

X-men: Apocalypse - failure - The character didn't translate and Mystique felt tacked on because of Jennifer Lawrences starpower.
- success - It was well executed

Captain America: Civil War - failure - high expectations, a failure to connect on the international market
- success - It feels like the Avengers sequel we wanted

Suicide Squad - failure - everything good was in the trailer a bunch of terrible performances were hidden in the trailer, and the villain turns out to be very lame.
- success - It feels fresh, and innovative and the Joker/Harley Quinn stuff is amazing

Dr Strange - failure - the character doesn't connect
- success - the film looks amazing

Batman v Superman - failure - the film is a bloated mess combining too many storylines and destroying the characterization of Batman and Superman. Also I worry about the effects looking cheap based on all the rainy night shots and CGI monster. Lex Luthor is annoying, Superman is bland and Wonder-woman feel superfluous. Finally that the movie is just bad. People who like movies that aren't terrible go and see 10 Cloverfield Lane, Zootopia, and Midnight Special.
- success - Star Wars prequels, and Transformers series have demonstrated that manchildren will buy any crap that's marketed well. The movie is average(I've given up on it being good) and DC fan boys support it. Foreigners don't know any better and it does massive business over seas. Midnight Special doesn't connect with the audience.

[Carabas]

Batman v Superman - failure - the film is a bloated mess combining too many storylines and destroying the characterization of Batman and Superman. Also I worry about the effects looking cheap based on all the rainy night shots and CGI monster. Lex Luthor is annoying, Superman is bland and Wonder-woman feel superfluous. Finally that the movie is just bad. People who like movies that aren't terrible go and see 10 Cloverfield Lane, Zootopia, and Midnight Special.
- success - Star Wars prequels, and Transformers series have demonstrated that manchildren will buy any crap that's marketed well. The movie is average(I've given up on it being good) and DC fan boys support it. Foreigners don't know any better and it does massive business over seas. Midnight Special doesn't connect with the audience.

Care to explain that in a little bit more detail?