"Ghostbusters": 11 Things the Sequel Needs to Do to Succeed

[buhbuhbuh1]

You are entitled to your own opinions, but you are not entitled to your own facts. Here are facts.

1. Ghostbusters had a reported production budget of $144 million after tax rebates. Rumors are that the budget was actually around $160 million but we will go with Sony's reports.
2. The marketing budget was at least $125 million, possibly as much as $150 million considering the last minute promotional pushes when the movie was tracking to open at $30 million. But we will go with the Hollywood Reporter's estimate of $100 million. (The Hollywood Reporter was one of the media outlets that were advocating for the film.)
3. We are at $244 million. Another issue: the studio only gets 50% of the box office revenue ... the rest goes to theaters and distributors. (The studio only gets 25% in China, but the movie is not playing there anyway). So this film needed at least $488 million at the global box office to break even, which is in line with director Paul Feig's own comments. But if you ignore Sony's comments that were determined to depict their biggest event in 2016 and "Ghost Corps" franchise launcher as a success (Sony even at one point claimed that the movie only needed to make $300 million global to earn a profit and justify a sequel, possibly because they were already adding in merchandising and DVD/streaming/VOD revenue beforehand) and use what are possibly the movie's actual budget, distribution, licensing (as other parties owned some of the rights) and advertising costs, it is possible that the movie needed to make $600 million global to actually make a profit at the box office. That is the bad news.

The worse news? Even the $300 million may not happen.
Ghostbusters opened at $46 million. The backers said "that's OK ... Feig/McCarthy/female-driven movies have legs ... multiples of 4 or even 6". That is not happening this time around. During midweek, Ghostbusters had the second highest decline in the top 15. During the weekend, it dropped 54% ... the 3rd largest drop in the top 15. This was despite Ghostbusters losing no screens. The #1 and #2 drops lost 970 screens and 1496 screens respectively. It dropped from #2 to #5. It not only remained behind Secret Life of Pets and finished behind wide openers Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age 5, but it even opened behind Lights Out, which had a $5 million production budget and opened on 1000 fewer screens. And on Monday, while Ghostbusters did pass Ice Age, it was still #5 because "The Killing Joke" (which will only play in theatres 2 days before it goes to video) out-earned it by $0.75 million. Ghostbusters had the 3rd highest daily decline in the top 15, ahead of only small releases "The Infiltrator" and "Absolutely Fabulous". Add it all up and Ghostbusters will not reach $100 million until Friday, it's 16th day at the box office. And on Friday, "Jason Bourne", "Bad Moms" and "Nerve" opens, and Ghostbusters will lose about 800 screens. As it already lost 400 screens to "The Killing Joke" and "Nerve", that will be down 1200 screens from opening. The next week: "Suicide Squad", Ghostbusters loses 800 more screens and drops out of the top 10.

One curious thing: when Ghostbusters opened at $46 million, Sony and its boosters crowed that it opened bigger than "Central Intelligence" ... a movie that had a $50 million production budget, 1/2 to 1/3 the production budget and opened on 500 fewer screens. Well, considering that Central Intelligence has had far smaller declines - it has the "legs" that Ghostbusters was predicted to have - it will likely finish at $130 million. Which is probably where Ghostbusters, which is decaying at a far faster rate, will end up. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Central Intelligence will beat out Ghostbusters for the #1 live action comedy of the year when all is said and done.

People seem to respond well to the new Ghostbusters. If don't want to believe that, well, that's on you.

This is factually not true. Cinemascore grades for this film are B. Before you say "that is pretty good" realize that the grade isn't from a random sample but a self-selected group: people who chose to see a movie and paid money for it. An "A-" Cinemascore grade is considered average; something that is needed for a film to do its usual 3 times multiplier (summer tentpoles often do about 2.75).

And before you think that overseas is going to bail this movie out ... its prospects there look grim. The movie will not open in China. American comedies do not translate well overseas. Feig/McCarthy vehicles in particular do not do well. Even making the same overseas as they make in America is unlikely, but if they do it will be about $250-$270 million, which is below what even Sony claims they need to call the project a success. Independence Day: Resurgence has made $365 million off a similar budget ($20 million bigger production budget but at least that much smaller advertising budget) and everyone acknowledges that to be a flop. X-Men Apocalypse even more so: its combination of production and advertising budget are the same as Ghostbusters, it made $530 million worldwide and is also considered to be a flop. A comparison: Batman vs Superman made $330 million domestic and $872 worldwide against a $250 million production budget, and Warner Brothers has already stated that it will need merchandising plus streaming/VOD/Blu-Ray revenue in order to be considered profitable on their books and avoid a writedown.

Which means ... Ghostbusters will be a $75 million writedown for Sony at minimum. Could be as much as $150 million. Sony will never admit it; neither will the mainstream trade magazines but it is true. However, Deadline.com does a "top 10 moneymakers" and "top 10 money losers" for the studios around February of each year. Ghostbusters will be on that list. This isn't "ignorant fanboy" stuff but actual numbers for you to do as we please. And no, Mattel reporting that "toy sales are exceeding expectations" (without, you know, actually reporting sales figures) isn't going to reverse that $75 million - $150 million writedown.

I have a feeling we'll see this go the same way that the Trank FF movie went. The studio will tout a sequel for awhile, maybe 6 months from now an executive will pipe up in an interview or something that there's still interest, some of the cast will gradually take on other projects that will prevent having a schedule open for the sequel, and that'll be that. A year or two from now, no one will even remember much about what happened in the movie, aside from the heated fights that led up to the release.

[meatwadf]

And the most important thing, Ghostbusters 2 made a killer profit. GB 2016 looks like it might lose money. And Sony is still wants to continue with this franchise? Weird.

I kinda think Sony "wanting to continue the movies" is damage control more than anything right now. Kind of like what Fox ended up doing after the Trank FF movie.

[simbob4000]

I have a feeling we'll see this go the same way that the Trank FF movie went. The studio will tout a sequel for awhile, maybe 6 months from now an executive will pipe up in an interview or something that there's still interest, some of the cast will gradually take on other projects that will prevent having a schedule open for the sequel, and that'll be that. A year or two from now, no one will even remember much about what happened in the movie, aside from the heated fights that led up to the release.

The difference is Fox has to make Fantastic Four movies to keep it, so they're likely going to make more. Sony ain't in that boat with Ghostbusters. Although Sony was talking about another movie that would be related to the original films and that cartoon. But this movie, yeah, in a year or two most won't even remember it.

[meatwadf]

The difference is Fox has to make Fantastic Four movies to keep it, so they're likely going to make more. Sony ain't in that boat with Ghostbusters. Although Sony was talking about another movie that would be related to the original films and that cartoon. But this movie, yeah, in a year or two most won't even remember it.

The time crunch Fox faces certainly changes the situation between the two companies. I'll be curious if a movie related to the cartoon in any way (or any sort of animated Ghostbusters movie) is even on their radar right now. I could care less about all the arguments that have been going on between the various fans over this movie, but I love the behind the scenes scuttlebutt that keeps coming up.

[simbob4000]

The time crunch Fox faces certainly changes the situation between the two companies. I'll be curious if a movie related to the cartoon in any way (or any sort of animated Ghostbusters movie) is even on their radar right now. I could care less about all the arguments that have been going on between the various fans over this movie, but I love the behind the scenes scuttlebutt that keeps coming up.

The cartoon was never related to this movie, which could be a reason they may not kill it.

[meatwadf]

The cartoon was never related to this movie, which could be a reason they may not kill it.

Never underestimate the overreaction of film studio executives. I could still see that project going through, but unless the current movie really develops legs, I could also see Roth and his crew stating that the Ghostbusters franchise is no longer viable. sigh

[Professor Moriarty]

How about not labeling someone who doesn't like the movie a misogynist.

[JediJones]

This article is absolutely, flat-out delusional. There will never be a sequel to this horrid cinematic filth, which truly cannot hold a candle to the mediocre, but not terrible Ghostbusters 2. There was no sequel to Green Lantern, Golden Compass nor Tron: Legacy and there won't be one to this money-losing, grade-D box office failure that had its tie-in merchandise closed out for 50% off at Target even before this pathetic excuse for a movie came out. The incompetent, fired Amy Pascal and the snide, hateful, profoundly arrogant Paul Feig crapped all over this great franchise, urinated all over the fans and have paid the price for it, the same way that Golan and Globus saw the end of their career the last time a great, world-famous franchise was similarly sneak-attacked from the inside, punched in the gut and spat on with Superman IV: The Quest for Peace. The last lingering stain of this cinematic excrement has already been flushed and forgotten except by clueless no-nothings with political agendas up their sleeve that they won't let die until the last sip of Kool-Aid has been forced down the gullet of their intended victims. This worthless article was a complete waste of time written by dead-enders like we haven't seen since the last Japanese soldiers in World War II who were hiding out in the forest because they never got the memo that the war was over and they lost.

[AnakinFlair]

Here's a thought- keep Kevin, but have his role as more of a cameo. Have the team hire an actual receptionist (hell, hire Annie Potts away from the hotel!), but keep Kevin in the firehouse and have the running joke that he's just there as the eye candy.

[JediJones]

also, i love how the haters are bending over backwards to declare that the backlash isn't about misogyny while insisting a better version of the film should have less women. oog.

I love how the defenders are bending over backwards to declare the film isn't about misandry, while insisting that the film had to replace the original's 4 male leads with 4 female leads.

But at least I can be confident that if Hollywood remade Thelma and Louise with two male leads named Tommy and Louis, and had them hook up with a hot blonde played by a Victoria's Secret model on a road trip, that feminists and all the liberal critics who praised the remaking of Ghostbusters with female leads would similarly praise the gender-switching in the Thelma and Louise remake too. /sarc

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Ghostbusters still being behind Secret Life of Pets is consistent. And again, by all that entirely; Star Trek: Beyond should be considered a bomb on the basis of not making the money intended. Lights Out is a special case since it's a low budget film. Of course it was going to make its money back. You have to understand the summer season is very competitive.

It finished 5th this week. That isn't a consistent hit. That is a film slowly falling away.

[Gryphon]

It finished 5th this week. That isn't a consistent hit. That is a film slowly falling away.

And again, theatres here in Ontario are starting to drop the movie as it isn't making them money

[ArachKing05]

What the hell is people's problem with the Ghostbusters 2? I've even heard Kevin Smith dissing it and yet seen heaps of comments on his Fatman youtube clip saying that the movie was great.

In my experience, GB2 haters are the 'older'(ie. @ the time of the film's release, so got into the original largely due to the cast's SNL pedigree) fans, whereas those who love it(like me) were kids at the time, keeping the fandom going by supporting the RGB cartoon and so on.

The only way GB2 is a letdown is that the finished film differs from the official novelizations. And the detail-inaccuracies of the Titanic wreck featured on screen.

It's been awhile since I've seen Ghostbusters 2, but I don't remember it being that bad at all. About the only thing I can remember is Bill Murray's hilarious line "You'll never get a green-card with that attitude, pal!" and the terrible Bobby Brown song.

Sacrilege - "On Our Own" is arguably the man's best work ("My Prerogative" notwithstanding)!

also, i love how the haters are bending over backwards to declare that the backlash isn't about misogyny while insisting a better version of the film should have less women. oog.

*Deep breath*

For the LAST time...

...the MAJORITY of diehard fans HATE this crud NOT because it has female leads, but because IT IS A 100% CLEAN-SLATE REBOOT NOT SET IN ESTABLISHED CONTINUITY.

CAPISHE??

[Drz]

Well most importantly it needs an audience since the first movie is flopping.

[chamber-music]

I would be really surprised if this film got a sequel because it looks like it will be a struggle just for the film to break even.

I'm not sure how much interest is out there for a sequel to this.

And the most important thing, Ghostbusters 2 made a killer profit. GB 2016 looks like it might lose money. And Sony is still wants to continue with this franchise? Weird.

Sony is desperate for new franchises.