Will SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME be the first billion dollar SPIDER-MAN film?

[Username taken]

You are somewhat misrepresenting the arrangement by suggesting it had been ‘run into the ground’ or that ‘all the creative decisions are Marvel’ because neither of those are really true. Sony were considering an arrangement like this even before ASM and their own expectations were not met. The ASM movies were not a flop, they just didn’t fully justify the marketing budget and effort. Marvel are the main creatives on this project but you can bet everything is done with cooperation and mutual agreement, because this is a valuable project for both sides. Portraying things in a cynical light only perpetuates fan paranoia over an otherwise long running and healthy relationship between two media giants.

Yes, I oversimplified the situation but the Amazing Spider-man 2 declined pretty severely from the first movie contrary to the studios own expectation. Amy Paschal herself on the leaked emails seemed to be particularly troubled that a Captain America movie outgrossed TASM 2 because to her Cap is "C-list". I suspect that's part of the reason Homecoming didn't really break out at the US box office (and didn't really increase much from the The Amazing Spider-man movies in the international market), it was a franchise that was making money but was in steep decline. I also have no idea what the relationship was between Disney and Sony. All we can do is speculate but ultimately business interests will overwrite everything (hence Marvel providing guidelines on the depiction of Spider-man in live action and the merchandising rights).

But all is purely speculatory because we have no idea what the intricacies of the deal is or how Disney or Sony even came to the deal.

Especially interesting will be what happens to Amy Pascal after SM3 is finished. It feels like she will be kept around until that project is over to keep the current arrangements smooth and functional. It seems unlikely she will stay in post afterwards. I am not sure if the arrangement can survive a new person in her position unless Sony tempt a Marvel producer into the role.

Very true.

Whatever happens there will be pressure from Disney to maintain the exclusive rights to market Spider-Man, and Sony will not voluntarily give up the movie rights to the most valuable superhero brand internationally. The current arrangement just makes sense to everyone, especially fans, even if they think otherwise.

The question isn't whether it makes sense or not, it's what happens if the deal expires (if it has a finite number of movies). What will Sony do with the character next? The current Spider-man set-up is tied very closely (but not really intrinsically) with the MCU, so will Sony retcon or simply ignore the previous MCU related stuff.

[JKtheMac]

But all is purely speculatory because we have no idea what the intricacies of the deal is or how Disney or Sony even came to the deal.

I disagree that all we can do is speculate. We have pretty good information about the deal between Sony and Marvel from official statements, a few good inside sources and a small number of genuinely informed press pieces. Most of the comic book and entertainment websites admittedly have proven themselves totally ignorant of the deal and have regurgitated incorrect information for years but that doesn't mean we all have to be in the dark.

The question isn't whether it makes sense or not, it's what happens if the deal expires (if it has a finite number of movies). What will Sony do with the character next? The current Spider-man set-up is tied very closely (but not really intrinsically) with the MCU, so will Sony retcon or simply ignore the previous MCU related stuff.

I think that sensible decisions will inevitably be made based on the stakes. Sony threw the dice and got a mediocre return, they went in with the MCU and got increased returns. Since then Venom has done well too and then this movie has done even better than anything previously. Sony understands its job is to foster the relationship and part of that is to develop other properties like Venom. They can also see pretty clearly that making movies with production input from Marvel is a good idea.

[jetengine]

The best thing Sony could do right now for themselves is push an alt spider person as THEIR Spiderman. Maybe Miles, Maybe Miguel. Not Gwen since we just had Emma Stone. If they can manouver Eddie a bit more they could....maybe try.

[Username taken]

I disagree that all we can do is speculate. We have pretty good information about the deal between Sony and Marvel from official statements, a few good inside sources and a small number of genuinely informed press pieces. Most of the comic book and entertainment websites admittedly have proven themselves totally ignorant of the deal and have regurgitated incorrect information for years but that doesn't mean we all have to be in the dark.

Fair enough. I haven't read anything conclusive on this and most of the sites I've visited generally add some caveats about not really knowing the exact details of the deals between the two.

I think that sensible decisions will inevitably be made based on the stakes. Sony threw the dice and got a mediocre return, they went in with the MCU and got increased returns. Since then Venom has done well too and then this movie has done even better than anything previously. Sony understands its job is to foster the relationship and part of that is to develop other properties like Venom. They can also see pretty clearly that making movies with production input from Marvel is a good idea.

Very true.

[Immortal Weapon]

The best thing Sony could do right now for themselves is push an alt spider person as THEIR Spiderman. Maybe Miles, Maybe Miguel. Not Gwen since we just had Emma Stone. If they can manouver Eddie a bit more they could....maybe try.

I think Sony should put their focus on animation. They knocked it out the park with Spiderverse. Animated rights for characters won't be a legal headache compared to live action.

[TheDarman]

Far from home is practically guaranteed to hit a billion now.

All in all, Sony has the MCU to thank entirely for this because Sony had pretty much run the entire franchise into the ground. As good and as successful as the Raimi movies were, they never crossed the billion dollar mark (and the less said about the total disaster that was the Amazing Spider-man series the better).

I'm very curious as to where the Sony/Marvel arrangement goes to next. The current Spider-man movies are funded and distributed by Sony but all the creative decisions are Marvel. Obviously, the arrangement can't last forever, what will Sony do with Spider-man next?

I think that Pascal has a kind of agreement with Sony and Marvel that her production company handles Spider-Man. And I think that she acts as a sort of production liaison for Sony. From there, both Pascal and Feige work together to create the newest Spider-Man films.

Personally, I think it will last until the day that Sony sees interest in the character waning. But, again, it seems like not only will this Spider-Man film be the first to hit a billion, it seems like it will be the highest grossing solo superhero film of the year. I expect it to hold better now that The Lion King has done its damage worldwide. I think it'll have its week-to-week global holds around the 45% mark, down from the recent 55% marks (high opening leads to big drops in the second week and The Lion King had a big impact on its box office in the third week). It seems unlikely, then, that Sony should take anything away from this film except for the fact that the character has never been more popular than he is today.

The way I see it is that they have had box office success with a mediocre Venom flick and critical success (as well as moderate box office success) with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. I think they realize that they can have their cake and eat it too if they keep Spider-Man in the MCU right now. So long as they have success outside of the MCU running concurrently with their success with the MCU's version of Spider-Man, I see no reason to suspect Sony will terminate their agreement. And Disney no doubt wants to keep him closer to their universe because they have the merchandising and West Coast theme park rights to the character. So, they are launching rides featuring Spider-Man at California Adventure and are making bank on the character worldwide (he's the #1 fictional character for merchandising). It's a mutually beneficial agreement that, in one small way or another, also elevated the new Avengers: Endgame flick to the cultural status it had. Both parties are happy and they will likely continue to work together past Spider-Man 3.

[Immortal Weapon]

Far From Home is 30 million shy of reaching a billion.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Far From Home is 30 million shy of reaching a billion.

It likely will cross that mark by Friday.

[SpiderClops]

Did you even bother reading the whole post?

Piracy is why we have things like Netflix.

Just because it wasn't as easy doesn't mean it wasn't as prevalent.

Comparing to pre-internet days there is validity in arguing that piracy has hurt modern numbers but anything from about 2000 on its just an excuse to make for why your movie didn't do as well. Aka those who want to prop up the current Spidey movies relative to the far more successful original trilogy.

"It was available, but it wasn't easy." Do you hear yourself? You're compaeing goddamm dial-up Internet to now where 4G-5G is the norm? And how the hell does rise of streaming services helps box office, pray tell me. You think there aren't people with the mindset, "Why should I go to theater when I can watch it 4 months later at my home legally and way cheaper anyway?"

You and so many others are trying to make MCU Spider-Man's success less than what it is. It was the highest grossing comic book movie of 2017, and now it's going to make $1 Bn.

Not to mention that constantly comparing it to Raimi doesn't make sense when Raimi himself couldn't repeat his success. Only the first movie made over $400 M domestically. Now does that somehow makes SM2 and SM3 dissppointments. Of course not! Because that's stupid logic.

[JKtheMac]

I think that Pascal has a kind of agreement with Sony and Marvel that her production company handles Spider-Man. And I think that she acts as a sort of production liaison for Sony. From there, both Pascal and Feige work together to create the newest Spider-Man films.

Personally, I think it will last until the day that Sony sees interest in the character waning. But, again, it seems like not only will this Spider-Man film be the first to hit a billion, it seems like it will be the highest grossing solo superhero film of the year. I expect it to hold better now that The Lion King has done its damage worldwide. I think it'll have its week-to-week global holds around the 45% mark, down from the recent 55% marks (high opening leads to big drops in the second week and The Lion King had a big impact on its box office in the third week). It seems unlikely, then, that Sony should take anything away from this film except for the fact that the character has never been more popular than he is today.

The way I see it is that they have had box office success with a mediocre Venom flick and critical success (as well as moderate box office success) with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. I think they realize that they can have their cake and eat it too if they keep Spider-Man in the MCU right now. So long as they have success outside of the MCU running concurrently with their success with the MCU's version of Spider-Man, I see no reason to suspect Sony will terminate their agreement. And Disney no doubt wants to keep him closer to their universe because they have the merchandising and West Coast theme park rights to the character. So, they are launching rides featuring Spider-Man at California Adventure and are making bank on the character worldwide (he's the #1 fictional character for merchandising). It's a mutually beneficial agreement that, in one small way or another, also elevated the new Avengers: Endgame flick to the cultural status it had. Both parties are happy and they will likely continue to work together past Spider-Man 3.

Thank you. It is so nice to hear someone talking about the arrangement as something broadly positive and sensible instead of focusing on micro expressions in interviews or paranoia over how “Sony will ruin everything”.

A classic example is we are beginning to hear stories about when Feige first talked to Pascal about wanting to tie Spider-Man into the MCU and apparently she threw her sandwich at him. This is easily spun as Amy being angry and against the idea at every stage. An antagonist meeting. Clearly there is another version. A version where a meeting between two important producers is informal enough to be a lunch thing. A relationship that is close enough that it is appropriate to throw food around without being offensive. But only one of these versions is click bait material.

[Zero Hunter]

The best thing Sony could do right now for themselves is push an alt spider person as THEIR Spiderman. Maybe Miles, Maybe Miguel. Not Gwen since we just had Emma Stone. If they can manouver Eddie a bit more they could....maybe try.

I have thought that for a while now. Use Miles and mention Peter here and there as being the first Spider-Man, but don't really show him. They could build up their whole universe apart for Marvel. It would be the best of both worlds for Sony honestly. They could have their own line of movies, and use all those fat checks from Marvel to finance them. Then sometime latter on down the road if they decided to take Spider-Man fully they could do a "Return of Peter Parker" movie.

[JKtheMac]

I have thought that for a while now. Use Miles and mention Peter here and there as being the first Spider-Man, but don't really show him. They could build up their whole universe apart for Marvel. It would be the best of both worlds for Sony honestly. They could have their own line of movies, and use all those fat checks from Marvel to finance them. Then sometime latter on down the road if they decided to take Spider-Man fully they could do a "Return of Peter Parker" movie.

They are technically not getting any cheques from Marvel. Just the takings from their movie. The only money that changes hands is a possible bonus to Marvel and we don’t know for sure if that’s on every movie or just the first one. (Even then that balanced the initial funding from Marvel.) The other payments cancel out to zero.

Sony give Marvel cash for production help, Marvel give Sony cash for the marketing rights, the sums are equal. It’s just a balance sheet way of swapping those two things. In reality it’s just a handshake deal.

I went into far more detail in a thread here, back when people were worrying about Venom, if anyone is really interested in how it all works and what we do and don’t know.

[Midvillian1322]

"It was available, but it wasn't easy." Do you hear yourself? You're compaeing goddamm dial-up Internet to now where 4G-5G is the norm? And how the hell does rise of streaming services helps box office, pray tell me. You think there aren't people with the mindset, "Why should I go to theater when I can watch it 4 months later at my home legally and way cheaper anyway?"

You and so many others are trying to make MCU Spider-Man's success less than what it is. It was the highest grossing comic book movie of 2017, and now it's going to make $1 Bn.

Not to mention that constantly comparing it to Raimi doesn't make sense when Raimi himself couldn't repeat his success. Only the first movie made over $400 M domestically. Now does that somehow makes SM2 and SM3 dissppointments. Of course not! Because that's stupid logic.

Yup, but honestly I hate the inflation claim when applied to any movie. The most extreme is Gone with the wind. Your just comparing different things from different worlds. The further you go back the worse it gets but even as recent as 2002 there are huge factors.

But yea the idea Having to download something for hours or even days cancels out piracy today. Where all u gotta do is take out your phone go to a certain popular porn website and search Dark Phoenix and stream it instantly

[TheDarman]

It likely will cross that mark by Friday.

If it continues to play as well as it did last week, including the international numbers being as comparatively high to the domestic numbers, it’ll cross the billion dollar mark either Wednesday or early Thursday. The weekend grosses will be gravy on top and push Far From Home ever further to becoming Sony’s highest grossing film of all time. And my guess is that it will also scrape past Captain Marvel to be the biggest solo superhero film of the year.

[TheDarman]

Spider-Man: Far From Home either passed the billion dollar mark today or will pass it very early tomorrow morning. Expect a press release in the next two days raving about its unprecedented success.

As of right now, Far From Home should enter the weekend right around $332 million domestic. I’m expecting an $11 to 12 million weekend, given it is the first weekend that isn’t either its second weekend (usually high drops) and going up against serious competition. It should end the weekend with just over/under $343 million, above both Spider-Man 3 and Spider-Man: Homecoming in domestic grosses. Should it leg out like Homecoming from there, Far From Home should finish its domestic run at around $412 million. I expect a little lower with Hobbs and Shaw eating into its legs a bit, so probably more like $390 million to $405 million. That’ll have it finishing short of Captain Marvel’s domestic total. However, I think it’ll finish ahead by an even larger margin in its international totals. It will barely edge out Captain Marvel to be the top grossing solo superhero movie of the year in my estimation. Now I hope Sony finds a better, less competitive release date for its sequel.