Originally Posted by
Enterprise E
The thing is, though, that we can't really go by the sales of The Last Jedi to show how well it really did since it was a Star Wars movie coming off of a movie that was very well received, if not critically then commercially. In addition, the only real criticism of The Force Awakens was that it was a rehash of A New Hope, hardly something akin to the character assassination of Luke Skywalker (the main criticism of The Last Jedi), one of the two faces of the Star Wars franchise. Also note that in addition to the Blu Ray sales being down, the merchandising sales are also down considerably. I think that the bombing of Solo was the real indication of how poorly The Last Jedi was received by audiences. Let me put in another example that I think fits in comparison.
Take Paper Mario: Sticker Star and later, Paper Mario: Color Splash. Paper Mario: Sticker Star was not well-received by the gaming audience and those who loved the Paper Mario series (to put it mildly). However, the game still has gone on to sell 2.41 million copies (according to VGChartz). That is greater than the 2.26 million copies of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, widely believed to be the best of the Paper Mario games, or even the 1.38 million sold by the original Paper Mario (both figures coming from VGCharz again). Only Super Paper Mario has outsold it. However, when Paper Mario: Color Splash came around, Paper Mario fans spoke with their wallets. And boy did they ever. It still hasn't broken a million, sitting at .87 million (according to VGChartz). Now, there are some extenuating circumstances that can account for the sales of both games. The 3DS has sold better than the GameCube or the Wii U, but still. The games voiced their criticism of the direction of Paper Mario: Sticker Star by not buying Paper Mario: Color Splash when it looked too much like Paper Mario: Sticker Star. And I also believe that that was the main criticism of Paper Mario: Color Splash. Those that did play the game said that it was noticeably better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star.
Now how does the above relate to Star Wars? Very closely, in my view. People liked The Force Awakens and lined up to see The Last Jedi. However, the Last Jedi disappointed fans and that was the reason for the major drop-off after the first week. Since many hardcore fans didn't like The Last Jedi, they refused to see Solo in protest. Now, I don't think Solo was going to make a billion since it was not a movie that fans were demanding to see, but I also don't think it was going to make less than 400 million, either. It's still Star Wars. The name Star Wars, alone, should strike fear into the hearts of other movie studios, causing them to give it a wide berth. That isn't happening anymore. And, of course, you have the aforementioned decline in Blu Ray sales and merchandising sales, which, to me, is really telling, in addition to Solo's underperformance. I think the real indicator will still be Episode IX. If they keep Luke Skywalker dead and don't give him a real reason for why he contemplated killing Ben Solo (such as Ben killing his wife and kids or something), or somehow bring him back (or both), I think you will see Episode IX underperform, possibly not even cracking a billion. Word of mouth from the first week will make or break this movie because I can see many fans staying home the first week to wait to hear what others think, or to just read the wiki on the movie and make the decision then. Of course, things will change, in my view, if the first preview either directly brings back Luke Skywalker, or says that the main plot of the movie is to do just that.